Tasmanian election 2018

[RooFlyer]

I might enjoy SA even more than tonight

 

[CaptJCool]

Unlikely, I think, although they in a fight with Labour for their 2nd.

For me, the flatlined vote comes to your comment about the roll-out of Year 11 & 12 across the State where the community wanted it (in the other thread) means Tasmanians will double their smarts. Who would have thought taking education to the masses rather than demanding they move and thus impose on them huge extra cost of living pressures ((paying rent and board and so on), there'd just be nothing left to pour into those poker machines) would make such a difference and impact.

That for me was the ultimate vote-winning strategy.

 

[CaptJCool]

I might enjoy SA even more than tonight

The analysis by Antony Green means who knows that outcome.

Where I live, there's no Xenophon candidate..... and that appalling ad ....

 

[RooFlyer]

Labor policy on grades 11 and 12 this election was, amazingly, not to roll back those schools who have already brought it in (gee, thanks), but to stop any more.

They said people choosing to have their kids educated in their local communities would "weaken" the state's college system - where we have large Grade 11 and 12 "colleges" in the cities. Yep, colleges first, kids/parents wants second.

Yes, I think that was the sleeper issue - Libs knew it was a winner, Labor and Greens went silent on it.

Health was the other big issue. Always in 'crisis'. We have big problems retaining doctors, specialists in particular and in our regional communities in particular (which is what brings drron to our fair shore so often ). Hobart Hospital was an awful institution - very old, very cramped on its site, an unpleasant place to work I understand and again, good doctors can make more and in better environments elsewhere.

Labor could not find a solution in their 16 years. Several plans to move the hospital in full or part, but none workable.

In their first term, Libs are currently building a new hospital tower on the existing site (about 1/3 done, I think): very difficult and great cramping short term, but the cranes are there and people can see progress in front of their eyes.

 

[RooFlyer]

Did I mention Tas business confidence highest in the country and I think our unemployment rate is second lowest (stand to be corrected on that, but pretty good).

 

[JohnK]

Then why is the same side of politics opposing welfare being paid into a debit card which can only be spent on certain products?

I don't take much notice of news but this is a fantastic idea regardless of who proposed the idea. Welfare should not be able to spent on any form of gambling.

I lost an uncle to suicide as he was in deep in debt to card sharps. Blew most of his superannuation. My grandfather ruined his life gambling and I have almost done the same with mine.

Gambling should not be that easily accesible. There was no need for pubs to have pokies. I have personally known 2 directors of an RSL for over 20 years. They do not care about the lifes and families that are destroyed by gambling. It's not the RSLs fault. They provide the pokies for entertainment. If someone destroys their lives it is not the RSLs fault. Yep if someone wants to commit suicide and you give them a loaded gun it is not your fault.

 

[RooFlyer]

Gambling should not be that easily accesible.

Toss you for it.

Gambling should not be that easily accesible. There was no need for pubs to have pokies. I have personally known 2 directors of an RSL for over 20 years. They do not care about the lifes and families that are destroyed by gambling. It's not the RSLs fault. They provide the pokies for entertainment. If someone destroys their lives it is not the RSLs fault. Yep if someone wants to commit suicide and you give them a loaded gun it is not your fault.

Sounds like Jacqui Lambe . The guns debate is that-way, JohnK.

 

[drron]

I wasn't allowed to comment before the election but at least in Medicine things are way better than 2014.I work in the states north.Waiting lists in medicine are down to less than 30 days even for category 3.As well in the North West there were 6 locum physicians in the 2 hospitals.Now just 2.Hence longer between my working here.

I must say if the ALP and Greens believe what they are saying about the level of Liberal donations they have no grip on reality.If you want to ban something you must expect those who are going to lose out aren't just going to sit on their hands but fight to try and stop it happening.

 

[cove]

Loved the Tas Labor leaders speech.....sounded like it was written by Bill Shorten’s speech writer. That’s the one where you could think that they had won....
I must tell you I always appreciated the stock market code for WOTIF......WTF. Quite appropriate for the Greens benefactor.

 

[RooFlyer]

Mr WTF bought the Gunns woodchip mill in eastern Tas abt 5-6 yrs ago. Closed it down, causing a great proportion of Tas town of Triabunna to lose jobs. Says he was going to develop some sort of 'eco-resort' there.

Still just a bunch of old machinery there, in spite of Tas undergoing its biggest ever tourist boom.

That's what greens do here. There is another one, further north. Bought a coastal towns motel, in magnificent spot. Closed it down, everyone unemployed; site now becoming derelict. But what do they care? They have their millions.

 

[serfty]

84.1% Counted.

Party
Vote
Swing
Quota (Elected)

LIB
48.5%
-1.3%
2.91 (2)

ALP
34.5%
+5.9%
2.07 (2)

GRN
14.3%
-2.5%
0.86 (0)


SFF
2.7%
+2.7%
0.16 (0)

So, does this mean if just 0.09 of a quota redistribution (mainly from the SFF) goes to the conservative side then the greens dip out and Liberal get 14 of 25 seats?

(Assuming ratios stay the same.)

Or is it more complicated?

 

[drron]

More complicated as there usually is a leakaqe of preferences as well as which candidates get eliminated.
Actually a good example here in Burnie.A local GP ran for the ALP.A couple of folk said they usually vote Liberal but would vote for him.Now he is running third for the ALP. so his preferences won't be distributed until late and maybe enough will leak to the Liberals preferences to put the 4th liberal in front of the second ALP candidate so the ALP candidate gets eliminated rather than the 4th liberal.

 

[RooFlyer]

So, does this mean if just 0.09 of a quota redistribution (mainly from the SFF) goes to the conservative side then the greens dip out and Liberal get 14 of 25 seats?

Grossly yes, but it is more complicated than that as drron notes.

Don't forget its not a party quota being distributed, its the candidates within that party and their votes are redistributed to the individual candidates elsewhere. Yes if most of the SFF votes get distributed to the Libs, that will obviously help greatly, but at the same time, the top Libs votes are being distributed downwards. All their first elected votes get distributed, likely to their #2. But the further you go down the ticket, the less known the candidates are, and the more likely a Lib voter's #3 choice will be outside the ticket (local politics). So although they'll get some of the SFF votes, they may not be getting votes from higher up their own ticket. (Which I now realise is exactly what drron said )

 

[RooFlyer]

I see in Denison (Hobart), the Greens' stronghold, and where there leader is, the 5 Greens candidates, at 86% counted, have scraped together precisely 1.03 quotas between them. (Contrary to what I said up-thread, a quota is a bit over 16%, rather than 100%/5 = 20%, )

See here: Tasmania's Hare-Clark Electoral System

How is a candidate elected?
A candidate is elected when his/her total number of votes equals or exceeds the quota.

What is the quota?
The quota is the lowest number of votes a candidate needs to be certain of election.

To calculate the quota, the number of formal votes is divided by one more than the number of candidates to be elected (rounded up to the next whole number). For the House of Assembly, which elects five members per electorate, the quota is one sixth or 16.7% of the formal votes.

If five candidates each receive a quota (just over one sixth of the formal vote) then less than one quota of the votes remain.

 

[RooFlyer]

Switched on the TV and it opened with ABC Insiders. Just how old is Barry Cassidy? He was Whitlam's press secretary, wasn't he?

 

[drron]

The quota is 16.7% because if 5 members are elected there are less than 16.7% votes left.
The real problem is that to be valid you only have to put numbers 1 to 5 so a lot of votes are exhausted.
For an explanation of the system see here-
Hare-Clark Electoral System in Tasmania

The important feature is the Robson rotation so there are several different ballot papers in each electorate.
Robson Rotation - Wikipedia

 

[ric_melb]

Switched on the TV and it opened with ABC Insiders. Just how old is Barry Cassidy? He was Whitlam's press secretary, wasn't he?

Haven't watched today's program yet. I've wondered re his age also. Turned 68 today.

 

[RooFlyer]

Interesting situation in Denison ( metro Hobart). Obviously Labor/ Greens stronghold ( green independent Wilkie holds it Federally).

Libs 2, Labor 2, Greens 1 pretty much as expected. #1 Labor has well over a quota, so will pull another through. The contenders: One, the other current sitting Labor member, another is the ex ABC radio breakfast host, with v high recognition, and the third is a newbie.

Newbie is well ahead of both of the others on primaries; ABC guy will be eliminated first, then it will be interesting!

Second Lib to be elected is current Lord Mayor, a sort of Turnbull Liberal. I wouldn't be surprised if she turns Independent, eventually.

 

[Hvr]

Switched on the TV and it opened with ABC Insiders. Just how old is Barry Cassidy? He was Whitlam's press secretary, wasn't he?

Bob Hawke's actually.

 

[RooFlyer]

Ah, correct. Kerry O'Brien was Whilam's.