The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[Lynda2475]

No I didn't ignore the context at all.

Bulk of Covid cases to date in NSW have been in under 50s, yet the number of deaths in NSW in under 50s to date is 0.

The chances of unvaccinated people getting covid in certain parts of NSW has increased only if they do not follow the stay at home orders and other health directives. If you flout the rules your risk increases, if you follow all the rules your chances haven't materially changed.

At this time there is no new data to indicate an increase in the death rates for under 50s.

 

[mviy]

The number of cases in the current NSW outbreak is going up, not down. So we are probably not past the worst of the outbreak yet.

We have only had one death from COVID caught in Australia so far this year, so it is important to get some perspective on that.

There is also long COVID to consider.

The chance of dying from COVID is very low because the chance of catching it is low, but to argue that the chances of dying from COVID has not gone up with COVID in the community versus not having it in the community a month or two ago defies logic.

COVID may have a very low death rate but as we have seen overseas and in Australia people can and do die from it. The UK has high vaccination rates and people are still catching COVID and dying it.

 

[Lynda2475]

o argue that the chances of dying from COVID has not gone up with COVID in the community versus not having it in the community a month or two ago defies logic.

Its true you cant die from Covid if you dont catch it.

However once acquired your likelihood of dying from it, is mostly determined by your general health (younger people generally have fewer comorbidities and stronger immune systems than older people), the speed with which is is diagnosed and treated (quite short in Australia because testing and health care is free) and quality of care provided (again quite high in Australia).

You are claiming an increased risk of death for all, when at this stage there is only an increased risk of acquisition in the unvaccinated if they disregard the health orders (or live with someone who does). The risk of death remains high for the unvaccinated in the 70+cohort, but hasnt changed for the under 50s.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Sunday vaccinations achieved.

View attachment 252846

Do we get a 10 million party next week?

 

[mviy]

I have studied probability. Conditional probability (the chance of B given that A has occurred) is not the same thing as probability in general where the chance of B occurring is considered with no assumption as to whether A has occurred. I don’t work in health, but I do know basic probability and statistics.

I am commenting on the probability of dying from COVID with no assumptions as to whether the individual has caught it yet.

Considering that most people don’t have COVID in Sydney it is not sensible at all for the vast majority of people to assume you have COVID when assessing the risk of dying from COVID.

As the chance of dying from COVID in Sydney is objectively higher than it was a few months ago, the risk vs reward of taking a vaccine with known rare side effects has also changed.

 

[DC3]

Greg Hunt has read out a statement from Pfizer saying the reports about Kevin Rudd influencing the distribution is incorrect.

Shocked to be sitting here
Kevvie would never try to pump up his own tyres

Whether he had any influence or not, I give credit to anyone who is trying to help with all of this.

 

[Princess Fiona]

ATAGI always based it’s advice on a risk/ benefit ratio
In January in Europe 1 in 28 people contracted COVID-19 over a 16 week period.

If this infection rate is replicated in Sydney then every 100,000 AZ immunizations would prevent
3 Deaths
14 ICU Admissions
145 Hospital Admissions
Potentially 3-4 people would get TTS. Australian mortality rate from this ~3%
This is all in the under 40 age group (Deaths, ICU, hospital admissions).

Currently 1 in 20 people being tested in Fairfield NSW are returning a positive test.

The message is absolutely clear.
Book your vaccination now. Right now.
Do not wait, this isn’t going away.
Contact your GP or book via the State Health Hubs if in an eligible group.



ATAGI

 

[Lynda2475]

State Health Hubs if in an eligible group.

And check back periodically as extra slots and new centers are being added all the time and you can often bring forward your Pfizer booking. One of my staff was able to get a Pfizer appointment within next 2 weeks today.

 

[jakeseven7]

Or maybe it will add to the confusion and just look like expediency to many.

Which is exactly what it should have been the first time around. They made a massive critical error underestimating the high likelihood of another large outbreak and here we are…Their risk assessment was way off.

 

[Lynda2475]

FYI list of places in Sydney within Pfizer appointments available for eligible people within the next week. Earlier today RPA and St Vincents were also showing availablity and the new mass vaccination centres opening on Monday arent showing yet, but will drop this week, 7000 appointments per week for the CBD one alone.

If you check frequently you can find Pfizer in near term due to people who are in ISO having to cancel and extra doses being provided.

 

[mviy]

Someone has somehow managed to get both doses of both AZ and Pfizer: Sydney man gets four covid vaccinations

 

[dylarr]

Finally, let’s hope common sense prevails

https://twitter.com/x/status/1414473509208694785

An update: no changes following the meeting:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1414549323497447430

 

[mviy]

No change is disappointing. We need the population to get vaccinated ASAP so that international travel restrictions can gradually be relaxed. Making it as easy as possible for people to take AZ would help with progressing the rollout.

 

[jase05]

No change is disappointing. We need the population to get vaccinated ASAP so that international travel restrictions can gradually be relaxed. Making it as easy as possible for people to take AZ would help with progressing the rollout.

Weak and insipid decision. Hopefully the Feds kick them to the curb and just push ahead with it regardless

 

[mviy]

The issue is that the states run the vaccine hubs and with ATAGI’s advice not changing they are unlikely to change the process there. However the Feds could say that GPS can have a full indemnity without needing to have an appointment with people before they get the jab.

 

[Lynda2475]

No change is disappointing

Couldnt disagree more.

It was rumoured they were going to remove 40-59s from Pfizer eligiblity to open Pfizer to under 40s earlier. Had that happened you would see majority of those in the 40-59s not yet vaccinated refusing a vaccine altogether.

Under 40s already have a way to access AZ if they choose to.

The focus should be on securing even more pfizer (or moderna) earlier so they can offer under 40s an MRNA sooner.

 

[Princess Fiona]

It’s no surprise that ATAGI hasn’t updated their advice. They are giving advice on a nationwide level.
If 1 in 20 people in your suburb are testing positive your background risk of contracting Covid is not at the national baseline risk.
It’s far, far higher.



Make your appointment now.

 

[MooTime]

What a farce, no wonder why Joe Public are saying it's all confusing.

Have a meeting in regards to recent Sydney outbreak & do nothing.

Was the meeting to try new muffins & discuss who's hosting the next group dinner? Oh my

 

[jase05]

Seems like a bit of hyperbole from Dan
I just can’t see us getting to 70% let alone more

https://twitter.com/x/status/1414711154581016577

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Seems like a bit of hyperbole from Dan
I just can’t see us getting to 70% let alone more

https://twitter.com/x/status/1414711154581016577

Aren't we supposed to have reached herd immunity by 70 or 75% - so the other 25% should be protected anyway?