The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[mviy]

Whilst there may not be plans to use AZ for boosters now it certainly is a reasonable option for those who have had AZ for their first two doses to get it again for the third if that becomes necessary. This may be a last resort option, but AZ is a good vaccine and the anti-vax rhetoric against it because of very rare side effects is unhelpful at best.

We don’t even know for sure that boosters will be needed. Moderna and Pfizer would like governments to think so, but they have a vested interest in getting more sales.

If our government is going to spend say a billion on Pfizer boosters they will want Pfizer to agree to bring forward the delivery dates for more of this year’s 40 million doses in return. Politically, boosters (if needed) are next year’s problem. Getting this year’s doses ASAP is the current pressing concern.

 

[Lynda2475]

So 15 million booster doses and a delivery of 10 million doses of their current vaccine which was announced 2 months ago I think makes that ABC report a bit OTT IMHO.

That leaves us 11 million boosters short, no reason not to order boosters for everyone. If they drag their heels and then try to order the gap in 2nd half of next year, 11 million Aussies are left without.

Also you are assuming we only need 1 booster a year, it may turn out we need 2.

We need first doses for children in that period too. Most of the western world already vaccinating 12-16s, eventually they need to get to younger kids.

It harms no one to order multiple options and not have all eggs in one basket. Contingency is super important, other governments get this, ours unfortanely not enough.

 

[Lynda2475]

We don’t even know for sure that boosters will be needed

We do, because emerging variants mean the vaccine needs to be tweaked over time.

If our government is going to spend say a billion on Pfizer boosters they will want Pfizer to agree to bring forward the delivery dates for more of this year’s 40 million doses in return.

That leverage doesn't exist, we need Pfizer, Pfizer doesn't need Australia's orders. We are a small population, Pfizer already has hundreds of millions of booster orders from the EU and US and Canada.

Yes we need to get the initial roll-out sorted but we also need to be planning ahead.

 

[mviy]

We do, because emerging variants mean the vaccine needs to be tweaked over time.

Then why are we using vaccines not specifically targeted against Delta now? Sure using a vaccine better targeted at a new variant may be more effective against it, but that doesn't prove that it's necessary.

That leverage doesn't exist, we need Pfizer, Pfizer doesn't need Australia's orders. We are a small population, Pfizer already has hundreds of millions of booster orders from the EU and US and Canada.

Yes we need to get the initial roll-out sorted but we also need to be planning ahead.

I disagree. It makes no sense to get rid of all your leverage without anything of value in return. If hundred of millions or a billion dollars is loose change to Pfizer and they don't want Australia's money for boosters we have plenty of other options.

If I was the government I would be saying to Pfizer we'll sign the order for the boosters today if you agree to double the shipments for the existing order from 1 million per week to 2 million per week in a few weeks or some other substantial acceleration like that to enable the vaccine rollout to be accelerated.

The government badly needs to find a way to accelerate the rollout. If they could massively accelerate the arrival of vaccines that could be enough to swing an election so holding out on a deal is worth the risk for them if there’s any chance that they could bring forward the arrival of the existing order.

 

[drron]

That leaves us 11 million boosters short, no reason not to order boosters for everyone. If they drag their heels and then try to order the gap in 2nd half of next year, 11 million Aussies are left without.

Also you are assuming we only need 1 booster a year, it may turn out we need 2.

We need first doses for children in that period too. Most of the western world already vaccinating 12-16s, eventually they need to get to younger kids.

It harms no one to order multiple options and not have all eggs in one basket. Contingency is super important, other governments get this, ours unfortanely not enough.

Your maths is out.5 million Australians are under 18 so only 21 million booster doses needed assuming a 100% vaccination rate.So only 6 million short.But 15 million doses is 71.5% of the maximum amount needed.It is likely 71.5% will not be far off the mark of vaccinations.Cerainly closer to the eventual number of actual vaccinations than 100%.

As to the children if you read the link I provided there is also 10- million of the current formulation.Guess it is enough to do the primary vaccinations on 5 million under 18s.

Also just think what thoughts are going through Pfizer executives minds hearing that Australia is in talks with Moderna for on shore manufacturing.Maybe being conducive to some Australian requests.Maybe delivering 40 million doses a bit earlier than planned.

 

[burmans]

well its been very very clearly stated, amazed me how so many simply fail to read behind the headlines.

well possibly because in many cases there is very little behind the headline.

 

[mviy]

Also just think what thoughts are going through Pfizer executives minds hearing that Australia is in talks with Moderna for on shore manufacturing.Maybe being conducive to some Australian requests.Maybe delivering 40 million doses a bit earlier than planned.

If Moderna becomes Australia’s preferred COVID-19 vaccine partner Pfizer stands to lose billions in revenue if regular boosters are needed. If that’s not leverage, I don’t know what is.

 

[Lynda2475]

Then why are we using vaccines not specifically targeted against Delta now?

Because we haven't ordered any for delivery now [redacted].

Your maths is out.

No I clearly stated we should order enough doses for entire population which is 26million (i.e deliberately over order as the EU, UK, US and Canada are all doing), as there could be delays with Moderna and Novavax may never eventuate. We need lots of decent options.

there is also 10- million of the current formulation.

Yes and when these were announced they were not designated for children this year, they were designated for adults (16+) this year as either first shots (given insufficient Pfizer for everyone and many refusing AZ) or early boosters.

The current orders wont adequately cater for the under 16s if Novavax doesn't materiliase.

With some people bringing forward their second AZ doses to 6 weeks, its been noted that they may need boosters earlier i.e. before the end of the year.

also just think what thoughts are going through Pfizer executives minds hearing that Australia is in talks with Moderna for on shore manufacturing.Maybe being conducive to some Australian requests.Maybe delivering 40 million doses a bit earlier than planned.

Its awesome that we may get a Moderna facility here (especially since CSL have been way to slow to move to newer technologies). We could be much better progressed on this, had out government be more open to dealing with them earlier.

But I do not believe it has Pfizer shaking in their boots, because the 40million doses this year are already locked in (not at risk) and because we have given them no orders for next year, they have been happily filling their pipeline with orders from those that have planned ahead i.e. the EU, UK, USA, Canada. There is talk of a deal with Singapore for a manufacturing facility there in 2023.

I doubt Pfizer is giving us much thought at all, and when we finally reach out we will be at the back of the queue again, when we could be much higher up the queue with a little more foresight.

Sitting back and waiting is not prudent.

 

[mviy]

They are not sitting back and waiting. I am sure they are trying to negotiate a win-win deal to bring forward doses again. If Pfizer is unwilling or unable to do that they risk not getting any contract for boosters or a facility here to make Pfizer doses for Australia.

It would be illogical for the government to throw away any leverage it has with Pfizer and Moderna without something of significant value in return. The rollout will be critical to the election outcome. Any problems with the booster rollout is a post-election problem. This is how government with regular elections works.

The government would be trying to get the best deal it can from either Moderna or Pfizer. They both make good COVID-19 vaccines.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

(especially since CSL have been way to slow to move to newer technologies).

Why would you think they Seqirus (CSL) are slow to move to newer technologies, when the fact is they have an excellent history of being innovators?

With the manufacture of AZ in Australia they stepped up to the plate and helped out in a time of great need as they had existing manufacturing capability suitable for some of the covid vaccine candidates including AZ (but not mRNA as they were not manufacturing any mRNA products). Seqirus (CSL) were not actually in the business of Covid vaccines, and as yet still have not announced that they will continue to make any Covid Vaccine beyond the current agreements.

• Seqirus has donated its well-established adjuvant technology – MF59® – to the vaccine efforts of multiple entities, including the University of Queensland vaccine development program. MF59® is used in the company’s adjuvanted seasonal flu vaccine for the over-65 age group -- one of the most vulnerable populations to COVID-19. Adjuvants can help improve immune response and reduce the amount of antigen needed for each vaccine, enabling more doses to be manufactured more rapidly. In parallel, Seqirus remains focused on the production of seasonal influenza vaccines, the importance of which is very much underscored by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As to being slow too move to newer technologies they have an impressive history in doing just that. And for example have already begun the move with flu vaccines (one of their core products) to cell-based manufacture. Indeed the new manufacturing plant in Melbourne is to help complete that process.

ie On the cell-based flu vaccine.

14 Jan 2019

CSL Seqirus

CSL Seqirus one of the largest influenza vaccine providers in the world and a major contributor to the prevention of influenza globally and a transcontinental partner in pandemic preparedness.

www.seqirus.com

And on mRNA

12 May 2021

For several years (so note before the pandemic started) , Seqirus has been researching next-generation mRNA – self- amplifying mRNA - for influenza and pre-clinical results appear promising, with human clinical trials due to commence next year.​

​

When administered, self-amplifying mRNA has the capacity to replicate (or amplify) itself. As a result, far less mRNA may be required in the vaccine formulation to generate equivalent antigen production and an effective immune response. This has been verified in published preclinical studies where lower doses of a self-amplifying mRNA vaccine generate an equivalent or even stronger antibody and cellular immune response compared with current first generation mRNA vaccines. ​

 

[DC3]

They are not sitting back and waiting. I am sure they are trying to negotiate a win-win deal to bring forward doses again. If Pfizer is unwilling or unable to do that they risk not getting any contract for boosters or a facility here to make Pfizer doses for Australia.

It would be illogical for the government to throw away any leverage it has with Pfizer and Moderna without something of significant value in return. The rollout will be critical to the election outcome. Any problems with the booster rollout is a post-election problem. This is how government with regular elections works.

The government would be trying to get the best deal it can from either Moderna or Pfizer. They both make good COVID-19 vaccines.

This news is interesting.

 

[DC3]

well its been very very clearly stated, amazed me how so many simply fail to read behind the headlines …

Please explain

 

[mviy]

This news is interesting.

It’s not news. It is conjecture trying to read between the lines of what is happening. I have no sources.

They have skin in the game with both Moderna and Pfizer, enough to let the other know that they are prepared to deal with the competitor, but small enough that they haven’t gone all in on picking a winner.

We’ll see if anything comes of it.

 

[mviy]

In media interviews with 2GB and Today, the PM acknowledged that ATAGI's anti-AZ advice slowed down the rollout. On Today he said "we're about two months behind where we'd hope to be and where we'd plan to be as a result of the ATAGI advice on AstraZeneca and, of course, the early issues we had with accessing those AstraZeneca supplies before our manufactured product was available."

Interview with Allison Langdon, Today Show | Prime Minister of Australia

www.pm.gov.au

 

[RAM]

Why would you think they Seqirus (CSL) are slow to move to newer technologies, when the fact is they have an excellent history of being innovators?

Well, that is exactly what they said to a large local fund manager when asked in late 2019. Exact words were no intention I was told.

CSL's focus was updating the 1930's tech used to produce the flu vaccine each year using 1/3rd of Australia's egg supply.

The Moderna way to profit from CSL's vaccine challengers

Why the technology behind Moderna's vaccine stands to disrupt CSL and how the spectacular collapse of Theranos exemplifies the need for biotech investors to always check the facts.

www.afr.com

That's why the decision as to which flu strains are represented is made around 6 months in advance - it is a very slow laborious process. That is what the 2026/27 new facility is being built to update.

Bianca Ogden, head of Platinum’s international healthcare fund believes CSL is a great company, but explains it may not be spending enough on R&D to keep up with the advancements made by competitors, particularly in the cutting-edge field of mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid).

CSL still has no announced plans to establish a mRNA production facility in Australia.

 

[burmans]

In media interviews with 2GB and Today, the PM acknowledged that ATAGI's anti-AZ advice slowed down the rollout. On Today he said "we're about two months behind where we'd hope to be and where we'd plan to be as a result of the ATAGI advice on AstraZeneca and, of course, the early issues we had with accessing those AstraZeneca supplies before our manufactured product was available."

Interview with Allison Langdon, Today Show | Prime Minister of Australia

www.pm.gov.au

As always blame someone else rather than admit they did not have enough of the alternate option.

 

[RAM]

As always blame someone else rather than admit they did not have enough of the alternate option.

But, but he doesn't hold a hose nor a syringe...

What has become more and more obvious as the months have gone by is that there seem to be no people in positions of authority who can plan effectively.

In this, and other threads, early 2020 there were dozens of forward looking issues raised, discussed and in most cases solutions found.

Normal risk management techniques appear to have been totally ignored then and still through to today. It appears that most people with a good brain have been pushed out as a threat to those above them - cannot be shown up of course.

It almost seems too many Australian politicians & senior bureaucrats operate on the theory that if they did not come up with an idea - then it is a bad idea.

 

[drron]

Pfizer almost certainly will not manufacture their vaccines in Australia.Pfizer's policy is to always manufacture their products themselves.Basically will not give out licences for other companies to manufacture for them.So why would they set up a manufacturing plant in Australia that would take years to build and a total export market of Australia,NZ and Pacific Islands.
Whereas Singapore would see the facility built a lot quicker and convenient to the much larger market of Asia.

Then I came across this article on Pfizer's marketing tactics with their Covid vaccine.

Drugmaker Pfizer employed “high-level bullying” against at least two Latin American countries during negotiations to acquire vaccines according to a recent investigation, including requesting the nations put sovereign assets as collateral for payments.


The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ), a UK-based nonprofit media organisation in an investigation unveiled in February said the pharmaceutical company’s negotiation technique led to a months-long delay in reaching a deal in one country, and the total failure to reach an agreement with two others, Argentina and Brazil.

Investigation: Drugmaker ‘bullied’ Latin American nations

According to a UK media group, drugmaker Pfizer held Argentina and Brazil ‘to ransom’ with ‘shocking’ demands.

www.aljazeera.com

Another reason why i do not like Pfizer.

 

[jonboixxx]

It’s not news. It is conjecture trying to read between the lines of what is happening. I have no sources.

Almost every post here is conjecture Just saying.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well, that is exactly what they said to a large local fund manager when asked in late 2019. Exact words were no intention I was told.

Late in 2019, no intention to bring in the new cell-based technology?

The link I posted to cell-based flu vaccine was dated Jan 2019.

Cell -based vaccine is now here.

There's the option of a different flu jab this year — but it'll cost you $40

For the first time since the 1930s, the way the flu vaccine is being manufactured for Australians has changed. But how exactly does this new technology work?

www.abc.net.au

And this is the plant to really ramp up its manufacture in the southern hemisphere:

Seqirus Will Build World Class Vaccine Manufacturing Facility

Seqirus will build world-class, next-generation $800m influenza vaccine manufacturing facility in Australia

www.seqirus.com.au

CSL still has no announced plans to establish a mRNA production facility in Australia.

Nor would they until they have a mRNA product that they have developed to manufacture. And they have at least one product (SA-mRNA Influenza Vaccine) under development as I also posted.


Not every company has to be in the Covid Vaccine business long-term. For CSL and its divisions it is not a core focus.