The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[mviy]

It turns out the bringing forward of Pfizer doses was requested by the government reaching out to the Pfizer CEO back in May: Australian Government fast tracks three MILLION doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine

I would be surprised if they haven’t made at least one further request since then.

 

[Spongbob]

Carrot/stick. It’s always worked well in the past!

I made a similar suggestion previously.

 

[MooTime]

And running total for the week is 970,000. When will we hit the magic million

We have hit a million over a 7 day window previously.
Need it more consistent than a 1 or 2 off.

 

[Flying mermaid]

We have hit a million over a 7 day window previously.
Need it more consistent than a 1 or 2 off.

I don’t think so - it was over 8 days?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think today Australia passed 10 million doses - 30 million or so doses to go, then boosters....

 

[DC3]

I hope that the rate picks up. I read recently where, at the current rate, it will be late February 2022 before those who want the 2 x vax will have received them. It all sounds so far off.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I think today Australia passed 10 million doses - 30 million or so doses to go, then boosters....

If boosters are needed. The debate is certainly heating up.

I'm not sure how it is moral or ethical to allow booster doses for the entire community when the rest of the world is in such dire need.

Not that Pfizer or Moderna care of course.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I think today Australia passed 10 million doses - 30 million or so doses to go, then boosters....

We are never going to get 100% of people - if we said 80% fully vaccinated then that’s 32 million doses (say it quickly it’s not so many), which means 22 million to go By then we will know how safe it is to vaccinate younger than 16, so that will be millions more plus boosters.

however I find it’s better not to look too far ahead - it gets overwhelming and depressing.

so short term target is say 50% fully vaccinated which is 20 million doses, so we are half way there!

 

[mviy]

Supply is going to improve so assuming vaccination rates won’t is a very big assumption.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I hope that the rate picks up. I read recently where, at the current rate, it will be late February 2022 before those who want the 2 x vax will have received them. It all sounds so far off.

I think that is the ABC rollout prediction and I have stopped reading it, as it’s very depressing. It’s also inaccurate as it wasn’t all that long ago they were saying 2023 and fairly recently it was April 2022. It’s a bit like economics - good at explaining what has happened, but not great at predicting the future.

 

[serfty]

I think that is the ABC rollout prediction and I have stopped reading it, as it’s very depressing. It’s also inaccurate as it wasn’t all that long ago they were saying 2023 and fairly recently it was April 2022

As I have posted elsewhere it uses a flawed methodology which produces pessimistic estimates.

 

[MooTime]

1st step IMO is to get the 1st dose at 50%+, then we should be confident we'll get 50% 2nd doses.
1st dose sitting at 35% atm. not far to go.

Also I don't see these extra pfizer doses coming on board changing much in terms of excelling the %'s. I mean anybody that wants a jab now can get one, can't they? can easily book within a month in advance at the longest. Am I not correct?

Unless of course they open it upto the 30's brigade etc, but I don't see them doing this until September when there'll be an infux & more than ample to cover larger demand, have to be sure all 1st dose champions have opportunity to fulfill their 2nd dose.

 

[mviy]

The Coalition vote skews towards the elderly and there'll be a certain percentage of anti-vax in that age bracket who think we never should have closed things down in the first place. Once we can get to 50-60% fully vaccinated in the older age brackets there'll probably start to be significant pressure on the Federal Government to give back people their freedoms.

 

[Flying mermaid]

1st step IMO is to get the 1st dose at 50%+, then we should be confident we'll get 50% 2nd doses.
1st dose sitting at 35% atm. not far to go.

Also I don't see these extra pfizer doses coming on board changing much in terms of excelling the %'s. I mean anybody that wants a jab now can get one, can't they? can easily book within a month in advance at the longest. Am I not correct?

Unless of course they open it upto the 30's brigade etc, but I don't see them doing this until September when there'll be an infux & more than ample to cover larger demand, have to be sure all 1st dose champions have opportunity to fulfill their 2nd dose.

If we had more Pfizer people wouldn’t have to wait a month. I think both Feds and States are managing supply to ensure there is always enough for a second dose.

Bringing in more Pfizer and creating more channels means they get through the current cohort quicker and can move to the younger age group. ACT is getting under 30s to register their interest from Wednesday and will start vaccinating as soon as they have enough Pfizer. They are also opening up a 3rd Pfizer Clinic in order to get as many done as soon as possible. We are very close in the ACT to 50% of over 16 with a first jab and I would anticipate this growing quickly as soon as they can open up to over 30s.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

We are never going to get 100% of people - if we said 80% fully vaccinated then that’s 32 million doses (say it quickly it’s not so many), which means 22 million to go By then we will know how safe it is to vaccinate younger than 16, so that will be millions more plus boosters.

however I find it’s better not to look too far ahead - it gets overwhelming and depressing.

so short term target is say 50% fully vaccinated which is 20 million doses, so we are half way there!

True never 100%.

I heard it was already 85% of those eligible in the UK with a first dose (so presumably will get to 85% fully vaccinated). I think somewhere there was a reference to opening up to children (maybe starting with teens) - so hopefully UK will get to 85% of the whole population in due course.

I believe Canada is around 78% of those eligible 12 and over with at least a first dose.

I don't really see why Australia can't make it to say 85% or higher.

Vaccine privilege seekers will lament at this aspirational goal because they are concerned with being locked up, etc etc. longer, harsher....

 

[Flying mermaid]

True never 100%.

I heard it was already 85% of those eligible in the UK with a first dose (so presumably will get to 85% fully vaccinated). I think somewhere there was a reference to opening up to children (maybe starting with teens) - so hopefully UK will get to 85% of the whole population in due course.

I believe Canada is around 78% of those eligible 12 and over with at least a first dose.

I don't really see why Australia can't make it to say 85% or higher.

Vaccine privilege seekers will lament at this aspirational goal because they are concerned with being locked up, etc etc. longer, harsher....

85% would be great! No reason why we can’t aim for it, while still allowing privileges for those who are already vaccinated while we get there. I wish the Feds/Doherty Institute would get on with their modelling so we know what the plan is for moving to Stage 2.

 

[Chalkie]

I believe Canada is around 78% of those eligible 12 and over with at least a first dose.

As at today, Canada is at 79.7% of 12+ eligibles at D1, and 55.9% D2. This is equivalent to 69.4% of the whole population at D1 and 48.6% at D2.

The Canadian federal government (which controls the borders) has said 75% of the whole population fully vaccinated (which is equivalent to 85% of 12+ eligibles) is a precondition for border opening / easing of travel restrictions. Exactly what "border opening / easing of travel restrictions" has not yet been precisely defined by the Canadian federal government. The 75% target is in sight, but the last 5% is going to be the hardest to achieve. On current D1 rates (about 1 percentage point each 7 days), and assuming they can be sustained, it will take at least another 5 weeks to get there. The rate of D1 has slowed markedly - so the provinces are trying very hard right now with various outreach / granular strategies to keep D1s going.

85% of 12+ eligibles is believed to be the "natural" limit, based on a 15% effective refusal rate (definitely won't be vaccinateds and probably won't be vaccinateds).

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

As at today, Canada is at 79.7% of 12+ eligibles at D1, and 55.9% D2. This is equivalent to 69.4% of the whole population at D1 and 48.6% at D2.

The Canadian federal government (which controls the borders) has said 75% of the whole population fully vaccinated (which is equivalent to 85% of 12+ eligibles) is a precondition for border opening / easing of travel restrictions. Exactly what "border opening / easing of travel restrictions" has not yet been precisely defined by the Canadian federal government. The 75% target is in sight, but the last 5% is going to be the hardest to achieve. On current D1 rates (about 1 percentage point each 7 days), and assuming they can be sustained, it will take at least another 5 weeks to get there. The rate of D1 has slowed markedly - so the provinces are trying very hard right now with various outreach / granular strategies to keep D1s going.

85% of 12+ eligibles is believed to be the "natural" limit, based on a 15% effective refusal rate (definitely won't be vaccinateds and probably won't be vaccinateds).

I think I heard the Canadian government did a survey or something to actually confirm the number of hard refusals. My impression is that hard refusals doesn't include covid vaccine hesitant people.

 

[jakeseven7]

I think today Australia passed 10 million doses - 30 million or so doses to go, then boosters....

Boosters will start before many get around to their first jab I imagine

 

[Batterytraveller]

I'm not sure how it is moral or ethical to allow booster doses for the entire community when the rest of the world is in such dire need.

Not that Pfizer or Moderna care of course.

Agree with you there. Pfizer especially seem to have been banging the drum for boosters. It’s seems especially cynical from them, easy sales to rich countries rather than the complexities of cold chain logistics in hot poor ones.

I’m fairly sure boosters and/or annual jabs will be a thing, but I’m also sure that the more of the world’s population we get two jabs into the less likely we are to get a really nasty variant.