The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[burmans]

AJ has already said they will likely do just that for international PAX... and I don't expect domestic will be far behind. They may need to wait until there is a greater chance for the general population to have been vaccinated, in line with govt targets. Extending to JQ may be a bigger issue, given the segment and destinations served; I presume though that the frontline staff policy extends to group, and not just QF mainline?

There is some risk of backlash for QF, but if their frontline staff are required to, and given we have >80% percent of the population saying they want to, or are willing to be vaccinated, that's one heck of a market share guarantee, particularly if their competitors don't force a similar position. I would happily pay a premium for the knowledge that no-one on my flight who could be, remained unvaccinated. It would also play well into the 'safest airline' pitch for QF.

Cheers,
Matt.

There will be a backlash from 10-20% of the population but approval from the other 80+ .

 

[openseat]

You cant reason with the religious, the whole premise of religious belief requires suspension of rational thought and evidence to take a leap of faith.

I'm not sure how this comment helps. Sure there are cranks who are anti-vaxxers, but you will find that mainstream Christian, Islamic and Jewish groups are supporting and encouraging vaccination.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

PM to speak at 12:15pm AEST

 

[dairyfloss]

There will be a backlash from 10-20% of the population but approval from the other 80+ .

Exactly - and that 80% is lot bigger than their market share today. I'd take it!

 

[jb747]

AJ has already said they will likely do just that for international PAX... and I don't expect domestic will be far behind. They may need to wait until there is a greater chance for the general population to have been vaccinated, in line with govt targets. Extending to JQ may be a bigger issue, given the segment and destinations served; I presume though that the frontline staff policy extends to group, and not just QF mainline?

My reading is that it is across the board. Pointless otherwise.

There will be a backlash from 10-20% of the population but approval from the other 80+ .

So, they can fly with someone else, if they happen to be fliers at all. But, that 'someone else' probably won't want to get a reputation as being full of the unvaccinated, as that's a very negative bit of PR. So, they'll counter by also mandating it. I expect that sooner or later, all of the states will require it to cross their borders, so it will rapidly become moot.

 

[jakeseven7]

There will be a backlash from 10-20% of the population but approval from the other 80+ .

The 10-20% can fly Virgin, who still hasn’t come out and said they will be requiring staff vaccinate. Or Rexy. Problem solved!

 

[dairyfloss]

The 10-20% can fly Virgin, who still hasn’t come out and said they will be requiring staff vaccinate. Or Rexy. Problem solved!

I can see the cheeky advertising already... "Prefer it unjabbed? Then prefer it with Virgin"

 

[Flying mermaid]

GPs and pharmacies in the ACT have requested extra Astra Zeneca from the Feds and should be getting 10,000 extra doses this week.

 

[mviy]

We have reached 40.01% (over 3.5 million people) fully vaccinated that are 50+.

49.45% first dose for 16+ is getting so close to 50%. The PM expects today’s numbers when they are released tomorrow to have us reach 50%.

70-74 fully vaccinated has gone past 50% (50.9%).

 

[justinbrett]

Record for NSW & Australia today - and tomorrow we will crack 50% first doses.

For comparison, NZ is on 40.5% (1st) and 23.4% (2nd+)

 

[Flying mermaid]

In late July I estimated 50 to 50% first jabs by end August, plus 30 to 35% fully vaccinated. Looks pretty spot on. My other estimate was 80% fully vaccinated in November (with an optimistic possibility of early November). Hope that was gets achieved as well. 80% first jabs in October looks guaranteed (if people keep coming forward), but fully vaccinated is a bit harder to estimate given the different intervals and mixes of Pfizer and AZ. CovidLive has taken my fun away with its predictions, although I am finding its fully vaccinated estimates a bit dodgy.

 

[mviy]

So we are pulling ahead of NZ and some thought this wasn’t possible.

 

[Flying mermaid]

So we are pulling ahead of NZ and some thought this wasn’t possible.

It certainly didn’t look like it in the early days but we have been steadily keeping the same distance between us for some months and over the last few weeks have been accelerating away.

 

[burmans]

I think some states may hit even 60% first jabs by end August. But I do think from having a look at the stats from every other country ahead of us that we are going to hit a slowdown in take-up reasonably soon. In this context the current lockdowns and high case rates will help to keep rates up but if/when they do start to drop (and unlike some I do think this will happen sometime) I suspect we also see vaccinations slow.

Don't get me wrong, I do think we will get to 80% but remain of the belief the current rate of vaccination may not be sustained for another 4 months, I think it may go up even further for a while but will inevitably start to tail off.

 

[Pushka]

I think some states may hit even 60% first jabs by end August. But I do think from having a look at the stats from every other country ahead of us that we are going to hit a slowdown in take-up reasonably soon. In this context the current lockdowns and high case rates will help to keep rates up but if/when they do start to drop (and unlike some I do think this will happen sometime) I suspect we also see vaccinations slow.

Don't get me wrong, I do think we will get to 80% but remain of the belief the current rate of vaccination may not be sustained for another 4 months, I think it may go up even further for a while but will inevitably start to tail off.

And that will be when the Federal Govt needs to kick in with incentives and big announcements.

 

[justinbrett]

So we are pulling ahead of NZ and some thought this wasn’t possible.

We've always been ahead by doses given - it's just many in the media were fixated on the double jab stat. Our use of AZ is a disadvantage for that.

 

[mviy]

I think vaccinations will go up soon as more mRNA becomes available. A number of people who are anti-AZ will come forward as mRNA supplies increase.

When increasing the numbers eligible is no longer an option to increase demand, then incentives will need to kick in.

We've always been ahead by doses given - it's just many in the media were fixated on the double jab stat. Our use of AZ is a disadvantage for that.

Well in NSW you can have the 2nd dose after 4 weeks. People taking AZ will be fully vaccinated in 12 weeks (or less) so still will help us with NZ facing a longer timeframe than that to complete their rollout.

With more mRNA coming we should be able to keep ahead of NZ even as AZ gets phased out of the rollout.

 

[drron]

In late July I estimated 50 to 50% first jabs by end August, plus 30 to 35% fully vaccinated. Looks pretty spot on. My other estimate was 80% fully vaccinated in November (with an optimistic possibility of early November). Hope that was gets achieved as well. 80% first jabs in October looks guaranteed (if people keep coming forward), but fully vaccinated is a bit harder to estimate given the different intervals and mixes of Pfizer and AZ. CovidLive has taken my fun away with its predictions, although I am finding its fully vaccinated estimates a bit dodgy.

I agree with your numbers. If we keep up the same rate we should be at 31 million doses by the end of October which would put us close to 80% first doses and 64% fully vaccinated.

Now the pessimistic will say the rate will fall but I prefer to believe that with increased supply the rate will increase.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The rate won't fall much. Demand for mRNA from younger cohorts who don't want to "risk" AZ will keep demand very strong through October and November. My brother (27 y/o) just booked in in WA via state clinic, earliest appointment available was 3/10. I understand why he would not want to get AZ but is most certainly going to get vaccinated.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I agree with your numbers. If we keep up the same rate we should be at 31 million doses by the end of October which would put us close to 80% first doses and 64% fully vaccinated.

Now the pessimistic will say the rate will fall but I prefer to believe that with increased supply the rate will increase.

I agree - I had factored in large amounts of mPfizer/Moderna which means the AZ hesitant ones in the older age groups will be able to get their vaccine.