The demise of Qantas international flights

[oz_mark]

QFi certainly won't be adding any new routes,
unless it hits those 787-9 options.

What happens with the 787-9s will be a good indication of QFi's future. If they can the order, probably looking at a limited order. If they order them, perhaps some expansion will begin again....

We just have to wait till then to find out.

 

[Pleb Status]

Any expansion in the long term will be between Australia and Asia only. Most of this will be on JQ as they are looking for something to do profitably with the 787 (as current 330 services appear to be struggling). In the short term, I can see a further reduction in QF Asian services with a give away of those routes to JQ during the JQ 787 ramp up.

With the EK noose around it's neck, any new QF Europe services will be quasi EK services, like the rumoured German service from PER. I suspect that the EK agreement most likely requires EK sign off on any new QF Europe services (it is a joint venture after all). EK will only allow something where they are capacity limited and QF have rights.

 

[RickyT84]

Not really. The A330's are needed to replace the (domestic) 767's. So to fly these routes new a/c are needed for either domestic or to service these routes.

Whilst the 330s are intended to be a direct replacement for the 763s, I believe that with 20 A332 (10 that are already with QF and 10 that are to be transferred back from JQ) and 10 A333, it should be more than sufficient to cover the retirement of the remaining 763s in the fleet and give some room for expansion. Also, more 738s will join the fleet over the next two years which will replace the ancient 734s and partly 763s (i.e. frequency vs capacity).

 

[ajw373]

Every other airline apart from QF must think there is demand from PER...
They seem to be adding flights, not withdrawing...

As been mentioned before the airlines adding frequencies are airlines flying to their one central hub location. Look around the world and you will see the same pattern, for example TG flies BKK-LHR more frequently than BA does. BA doesn't even fly to Kuala Lumpur, but MH does a few times a day.

 

[ajw373]

Whilst the 330s are intended to be a direct replacement for the 763s, I believe that with 20 A332 (10 that are already with QF and 10 that are to be transferred back from JQ) and 10 A333, it should be more than sufficient to cover the retirement of the remaining 763s in the fleet and give some room for expansion. Also, more 738s will join the fleet over the next two years which will replace the ancient 734s and partly 763s (i.e. frequency vs capacity).

They have 20 odd 767's doing domestic/Honolulu today that are planned to be gone within the next few years, with 9 or 10 more A330's in Jetstar coming back to QF. Now to me, even with additional 737's coming to Qantas they still won't have any spare aircraft for international expansion, moreso when you factor in the 744 retirement plans, again with no additional a/c identified as replacements.

 

[dairyfloss]

Were it not for the collapse of Malev, I might have suggested some potential for a unique offering in connection from Asia, or DXB to BUD (Budapest)... EK also have nothing into the city, which I find unusual, given the economic potential for this still emerging market and popular Eastern European tourist destination. OW connections on AY (to HEL), BA (to LHR) and AB (to BER) all available. Downsides are that the GFC and continuing financial instability in much of the EU is still of concern, and also the locals are less likley to come down-under or even to Asia/DXB than from other markets, so traffic would not be balanced.

Cheers.

 

[Warks]

I'd like to add my name to the list favouring SYD-YVR direct. At one stage I would have done anything to avoid LAX immigration, probably not as big an issue now. No real desire to fly AC as I have no points with them and they are expensive most of the time that I'd want to fly. I do put my mother on the AC flight once a year to visit my sister though. She's old and it's handy for me to drop her at immigration at this end and my sister to pick her up at the other. I'd hate to think of her trying to transit LAX!

Was there ever a true direct SYD-YVR flight? I flew QF in 1994 and it stopped in HNL.

 

[vantage03]

I'd love to see QF on the following:

SYD/MEL to YVR
SYD/MEL to BOM via KUL
SYD to SFO (particularly in Feb and Mar each year to make it easier for the SFO party boys to get to Mardi Gras )
MEL to PEK (to compliment the SYD to PVG service)
PER to HKG via BKK or KUL
DXB to TXL (would be a great way to add a new port to the QF-EK alliance network)

DXB-TXL... another party boy route hey? ha.

I'm definitely no an expert here but, as someone who loves to travel to Berlin, it's my understanding that the German government are highly protective of Lufthansa on this route, and that's why EK doesn't fly there. Would love to see EK, QF or even SQ add a TXL/BER but even with recent rumour, I can't see it happening anytime soon.

 

[Skyring]

I remember when QF used to fly CNS-NRT TWICE a day.

Within an hour of each other. I'd been in Perth that morning and was having a shower in the CNS QP when they called the Tokyo flight. Cripes, I thought damply, I thought I had way more time than that!

As it happened, I did.

But those flights were in response to demand driven by Japanese tourists. If the Japanese economy declines, so does the demand. Not a lot of North Queenslanders spending their weekends in Tokyo, I'll bet.

BTW, that CNS-NRT flight is the one where Routebear snuck into the coughpit and got photographed by a couple of bored 767 pilots.

 

[Isochronous]

I spoke to a friend in Ireland who works at Dublin airport who says there are huge rumours that QF will soon be flying into DUB from DXB to supplement EK's daily service.

Personally, I'd love to see LAX-MIA, but I agree with skyring, it's not what I want but what's profitable for the airline.

That would be nice - but I ask:

1) how much premium traffic would there really be to DUB,
2) has EK maxed out their Irish traffic rights to DUB, and
3) Can they justify an A380? If so can QF get 2-3 extras easily? Otherwise, if they fly A330 say PER-DXB-DUB, how would that work since QF is only using the EK A380 terminal ATM?

 

[ajw373]

3) Can they justify an A380? If so can QF get 2-3 extras easily? Otherwise, if they fly A330 say PER-DXB-DUB, how would that work since QF is only using the EK A380 terminal ATM?

Actually the EK terminal, or more correctly the peir that Qantas uses in DXB is NOT a dedicated to the A380 as the marketing blurb may have us beleive. What makes it unique is it is a peir where ALL the gates are capable of taking A380's. EK can and do operate other non A380 a/c from this peir and A380 operate from other peirs.

 

[cdinoz]

Wouldn't this flight be nice? Let's just call it QF33/34 because I don't think that exists yet:

QF33 PER 16:25 - DXB 23:25 (11:00) A330
QF33 DXB 02:10 - TXL 06:40 (6:30) A330


QF34 TXL 23:25 - DXB 07:35 (6:10) A330
QF34 DXB 09:10 - PER 23:55 (10:45) A330

These flights would allow PER pax to connect with LHR QF services, and allow SYD and MEL pax to connect with the service to Berlin. As mentioned before, they can codeshare with EK who don't fly to Berlin, and also get feeder traffic from Berlin through airberlin, who don't fly to DXB (or Australia). Everyone wins! A possible issue is that EK already fly DXB-PER at similar times, but I guess that didn't stop QF on the DXB-SYD/MEL routes.

I would definitely use this service, and I know many others who would too. I really enjoyed using the QF5/6 to FRA and was on one of its last ever flights to FRA. The CSM said in his spiel at the end of the flight "We hope to see you again on a Qantas aircraft soon" - if they really meant this, why stop flying to Germany?! Not to mention, the flight was completely full.

Are you listening, QF??

From what I hear from some QF staffers, PER to TXL via DXB is on the cards. Or so the rumour goes, with an A330.

 

[samh004]

I thought an idea had been that QFi would get the 789's and as a new type, use DXB as the base, leading to better wages from a QFi perspective and opening up more routes. Or perhaps this was just a far fetched rumour?

 

[whatmeworry]

Just curious but year did QFi have its most ever international routes?

 

[moa999]

Most international routes, or most international passengers carried.

The early days a flight to London touched 7+ airports, but was a small aircraft and only weekly frequencies, versus today with the A380 daily.

The growth in the number of airlines and passenger expectations means few routes survive unless you can offer a daily or better service.

 

[A330]

I think the importance of TXL is overblown. QF don't have the traffic to fill an A330 DXB-TXL without EK pax, and it is unlikely to get approval from the Germans if EK code shares on the flight. EK does actually have the access to fly to TXL but to do so it must give up one of its other ports in Germany. So if EK gave up HAM they could pick up TXL.

TXL is also poorly served by long haul flights outside of AB - UA flies there from EWR, QR from DOH, HU from PEK and MIAT from Mongolia (!). Otherwise it's mostly intra-Europe flights or AB's leisure flights. Things will surely improve once BER opens but this much delayed airport still doesn't have an opening date.
I also don't see AB code sharing with QF, ever. Their partner for Australia flights is EY - I took several AB/HG flights last month, and they all played a commercial on the drop down screens for their EY alliance. This commercial also features VA.

I would think the next new route for QF would be in Asia, and judging by their recent moves to "partner hubs" it would be BNE-PVG to meet MU code shares.

 

[dajop]

I also don't see AB code sharing with QF ever. Their partner for Australia flights is EY - I took several AB/HG flights last month, and they all played a commercial on the drop down screens for their EY alliance. This commercial also features VA..

Actually, IIRC, AB have applied to codeshare on VA's AUH-SYD services, so I think you are spot on in this analysis. Their EY ownership stake in AB a big factor.

 

[Isochronous]

I think the importance of TXL is overblown. QF don't have the traffic to fill an A330 DXB-TXL without EK pax, and it is unlikely to get approval from the German's if EK code shares on the flight. EK does actually have the access to fly to TXL but to do so it must give up one of its other ports in Germany. So if EK gave up HAM they could pick up TXL.

TXL is also poorly served for long haul flights outside of AB - UA flies there from EWR, QR from DOH, HU to PEK and MIAT from Mongolia (!). Otherwise it's mostly intra-Europe flights or AB's leisure flights. Things will surely improve once BER opens but this much delayed airport still doesn't have an opening date.
I also don't see AB code sharing with QF ever. Their partner for Australia flights is EY - I took several AB/HG flights last month, and they all played a commercial on the drop down screens for their EY alliance. This commercial also features VA.

I would think the next new route for QF would be in Asia, and judging by their recent moves to "partner hubs" it would be BNE-PVG to meet MU code shares.

BNE-PVG on QF metal would be nice!

 

[brett-au]

Out of curiosity, if Jetstar or Qantas did fly to Vancouver, could they keep flying on to Torronto or Ontario? Or is that some how restricted?

 

[Fruitcake]

Out of curiosity, if Jetstar or Qantas did fly to Vancouver, could they keep flying on to Torronto or Ontario? Or is that some how restricted?

This is the present agreement. My reading is that an Australian airline is allowed to serve two ports in Canada from any port in Australia, either direct or via SFO, HNL, PPT or NAN. So I think it would be legal to operate a SYD-YVR-YYZ service, although Qantas would not be allowed to sell YVR-YYZ tickets. They would, however, be able to exercise fifth freedom rights on intermediate sectors.

Agreement between the Government of Australia and the Government of Canada relating to Air Services [1988] ATS 12

ANNEX

Route to be operated in both directions by the designated airline of Canada

[TD="align: left"] Points in Canada [/TD]
[TD="align: left"] Intermediate Points [/TD]
[TD="align: left"] Points in Australia [/TD]

[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Any point or points in [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]San Francisco[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Sydney[/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Canada [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Honolulu[/TD]
[TD="align: left"] One other point in [/TD]

[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Tahiti[/TD]
[TD="align: left"] Australia to be named by [/TD]

[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Fiji[/TD]
[TD="align: left"] Canada [/TD]

Any point or points specified above may be omitted on any or all services, but all services shall originate or terminate in Canada.


Route to be operated in both directions by the designated airline of Australia

[TD="align: left"] Points in Australia [/TD]
[TD="align: left"] Intermediate Points [/TD]
[TD="align: left"] Points in Canada [/TD]

[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Any point or points in [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Fiji[/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Vancouver[/TD]

[TD="align: left"] Australia [/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Tahiti[/TD]
[TD="align: left"] One other point in Canada [/TD]

[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Honolulu[/TD]
[TD="align: left"] to be named by Australia [/TD]

[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]San Francisco[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]

Any point or points specified above may be omitted on any or all services, but all services shall originate or terminate in Australia.
NOTE
1. The additional point in Australia to be named by Canada and the additional point in Canada to be named by Australia shall be any point with an airport designated for international operations.
2. Points to be named by either Contracting Party may be changed on six (6) months notice given to the other Contracting Party.

In terms of capacity.... 3,000 seats a week in each direction are available.
http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/av...egister_available_capacity_270613.pdf#page=15



EDIT: A more detailed reading of the Department of Infrastucture website states that the agreement above was "Supplemented by MoU of 2000*." I can't find this MoU immediately so if anyone knows its contents please point out if the content I've posted above is no longer materially accurate.