The way out of lockdowns etc in Australia

[lovetravellingoz]

Today's economic insights from Commsec.

 The Australian economy shrank just 0.3 per cent in the March quarter. -0.3%! It’s worth reflecting on that a while. The economy was hit by bushfires, drought, cyclones, flooding and a global pandemic and only fell 0.3 per cent. At an annualised rate, that represents a 1.2 per cent fall. The US economy shrank 5 percent in the March quarter; the UK fell 7.7 per cent; Germany fell 8.6 per cent; and China fell 33.8 per cent.

 The economy is forecast to contract by around 8.5 per cent in the current quarter (the June quarter). That is to be expected given that the economy was in lockdown over most of the period. A lockdown of necessity, as a result of the COVID-19 health emergency. Interesting that it took a healthy emergency to break the record economic expansion.

https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/2020Reports/June/ECO_Insights_030620-Pandemic_end_record_expansion.pdf

 

[Flashback]

Today's economic insights from Commsec.

 The Australian economy shrank just 0.3 per cent in the March quarter. -0.3%! It’s worth reflecting on that a while. The economy was hit by bushfires, drought, cyclones, flooding and a global pandemic and only fell 0.3 per cent. At an annualised rate, that represents a 1.2 per cent fall. The US economy shrank 5 percent in the March quarter; the UK fell 7.7 per cent; Germany fell 8.6 per cent; and China fell 33.8 per cent.

 The economy is forecast to contract by around 8.5 per cent in the current quarter (the June quarter). That is to be expected given that the economy was in lockdown over most of the period. A lockdown of necessity, as a result of the COVID-19 health emergency. Interesting that it took a healthy emergency to break the record economic expansion.

https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/2020Reports/June/ECO_Insights_030620-Pandemic_end_record_expansion.pdf

One of my clients in Australia has closed 2 of their 5 businesses as a result of COVID-19, I believe that's only the tip of the iceberg of what's to come.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

One of my clients in Australia has closed 2 of their 5 businesses as a result of COVID-19, I believe that's only the tip of the iceberg of what's to come.

There have been winners and losers, and status quo for others.

Some of the losers will re-emerge under new owners. ie Virgin. Othere losers will cease, but their customers go to a competitor and so business activity remains.

And there are business like mine where the activity just stopped, or was greatly reduced, and so less business activity. ie Airlines , tourism, theatres, cafes etc.


PS: My business is one of the losers. I expect virtually no business income from mid -March till October or November 2020. Fortunately my company's cash reserves are such that I do not have to enter administration.

 

[oz_mark]

There have been winners and losers, and status quo for others.

Some of the losers will re-emerge under new owners. ie Virgin. Othere losers will cease, but their customers go to a competitor and so business activity remains.

And there are business like mine where the activity just stopped, or was greatly reduced, and so less business activity. ie Airlines , tourism, theatres, cafes etc.


PS: My business is one of the losers. I expect virtually no business income from mid -March till October or November 2020. Fortunately my company's cash reserves are such that I do not have to enter administration.

Something not often mentioned in the media is the number of projects that just got put on hold. I know a bunch of small IT and engineering consulting type places that are really struggling at the moment.
Jobkeeper might keep a few treading water for the moment, but when that cuts out, who knows....

 

[Pushka]

October November will be killer months. And our work always slows down in December and January. May - November are supposed to be the busiest.

 

[jakeseven7]

There have been winners and losers, and status quo for others.

Some of the losers will re-emerge under new owners. ie Virgin. Othere losers will cease, but their customers go to a competitor and so business activity remains.

And there are business like mine where the activity just stopped, or was greatly reduced, and so less business activity. ie Airlines , tourism, theatres, cafes etc.


PS: My business is one of the losers. I expect virtually no business income from mid -March till October or November 2020. Fortunately my company's cash reserves are such that I do not have to enter administration.

Mostly losers however, you aren’t alone.

And mostly just ‘useless to the economy’ type winners like Coles and Woolworths where the multiplier effect of your dollar spend to create growth for others is severely muted. So ditch the large corporates and support small local business if you can.

 

[Pushka]

Mostly losers however, you aren’t alone.

And mostly just ‘useless to the economy’ type winners like Coles and Woolworths where the multiplier effect of your dollar spend to create growth for others is severely muted. So ditch the large corporates and support small local business if you can.

I said the same yesterday to a vigneron who lost their vineyards in December to the SA Fires and then had to close for 11 weeks while they were trying to remove the dead vines. She said she'd had two groups of winners - the retired who were enjoying the cheaper prices and then Public Servants who knew their job was secure, no risk or worry about JobKeeper, jobseeker, or the business going down, and because most not needed urgently were happy to be at home and in many cases not needing to do anything like a full time working day. And in SA kids stayed at school pretty much so not even home schooling issues.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tas Premier in today's 'covid' press conference has said its the last one; its been occasional only for the past 10 days. Three active cases in the state, nothing new for 20 days.

 

[Gremlin]

There have been winners and losers, and status quo for others.

Some of the losers will re-emerge under new owners. ie Virgin. Othere losers will cease, but their customers go to a competitor and so business activity remains.

And there are business like mine where the activity just stopped, or was greatly reduced, and so less business activity. ie Airlines , tourism, theatres, cafes etc.


PS: My business is one of the losers. I expect virtually no business income from mid -March till October or November 2020. Fortunately my company's cash reserves are such that I do not have to enter administration.

Yes. I feel your pain. In hindsight, February 2020 was a really bad time to have launched a business. I've very quickly unlaunched the business, but no certainty around when I'll be able to restart. I can wait it out, but it's frustrating not even knowing a timetable and it being out of my control.

 

[drron]

A few interesting facts reading an economic newsletter.J P Morgans rearch into the effects of lockdowns on economies around the world.In particular what happens when lockdowns end.

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[JackMiles]

A few interesting facts reading an economic newsletter.J P Morgans rearch into the effects of lockdowns on economies around the world.In particular what happens when lockdowns end.

Seems waaaaaay too soon for any meaningful post-lockdown measurement to use as comparison.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

A few interesting facts reading an economic newsletter.J P Morgans rearch into the effects of lockdowns on economies around the world.In particular what happens when lockdowns end.

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Isn't this just what you would expect to see?

ie

Lockdowns (or rather the various control measures are eased as no two countries are identical) are eased when infections are on the slide are on the downturn.
If infections are still rampant then measures will not be eased.

 

[RooFlyer]

Isn't this just what you would expect to see?

Lockdowns (or rather the various control measures are eased as no two countries are identical) are eased when infections are on the slide are on the downturn.
If infections are still rampant then measures will not be eased.

To the first part - not necessarily. We've seen 'lockdowns' eased at various stages of infection still being in the community. In Australia & NZ the de-lockdown has been very conservative - almost at the point of elimination, whereas in other countries 'de-lockdown' has come at earlier stages (even allowing, as you say 'de-lockdown has various meanings in various countries but its definitely happened while infections are still widespread). To see that almost all countries experience a decrease in infections when de-lockdown occurs, under those circumstances, is surprising to me. But pleasing to see.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

To see that almost all countries experience a decrease in infections when de-lockdown occurs, under those circumstances, is surprising to me. But pleasing to see.

Though when restrictions are eased it is not normally the case that everyone just snaps back into pre-Covid practices. Indeed from what I have read most have not and especially if Covd 19 is out and about.

I know that Governor Cuomo on when describing the relaxation of lockdown measures he described Ro as being like a dial, where they would ease some measures and see what happened. If the dial kicked up, the measures would go back on again, but if it didn't then they would keep relaxing measures progressivley.

Also even if the Government allows it, all those most at risk know that they are and they tend to remain cautious. Most of these countries are living new-normals, rather than the old-normal.

My parents are both in their 80's and they still are avoiding people and they live on a 17 acre property.

The initial infection rates were calculated on no controls.

In Oz we were originally going for living with the virus too, but it is quite clear that the State Premiers after our virus controls worked better than most were expecting are all going for eradication despite them not acknowledging it. So we are now going for not living with the virus inside the bubble behind quarantined international borders.

In NZ and OZ they want to be living the old-normal. Not straight away, but quickly.

 

[RooFlyer]

What it says to me - with hindsight, but I've been suggesting it for a week or more - is that Australia, or rather, its component states, has been too conservative in its emergence out.

@drron, could you post a link so we can see which countries are which in the first graph?

 

[tgh]

Australia, or rather, its component states, has been too conservative in its emergence out

Why ?

What do you think should have happened and what level of infectivity do you personally support ?

If you assume the the bug must become endemic a la USA .. the whole shebang was a waste of time.

If you hold hope for "practical elimination".. the conservatism you criticise seems entirely sensible.. AND.. appears to be a view supported by the majority.

I can't see any little bit pregnant option.. so perhaps you can elucidate me

 

[Pushka]

The whole aim of our shut downs was to keep the curve at a level where people, if they needed a respirator, could have access to one. It was never about elimination but rather management. And the Federal Government is still saying that. Some of the States aren't listening and now its become a political bun fight.

 

[drron]

Well tgh the problem is people have been scared into believing they personally are at terrible risk from this virus when most people the risk is very small.
.

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In fact of total deaths it is estimated that only about 1% are in people with no co morbidities.

Coronavirus: Is it time to free the healthy from restrictions?

Ministers are looking at how to ease the lockdown. How cautious should they be?

www.bbc.com

And this from the BMJ-we should shield those at most risk and let the young and healthy get on with their lives.

Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk

Lockdown is damaging lives; stratified shielding could help get us out Protecting those at most risk of dying from covid-19 while relaxing the strictures on others provides a way forward in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, given the virus is unlikely to disappear in the foreseeable future.1 Such...

www.bmj.com

Back to the arguments about schools.Real life has backed the belief that closing schools was not absolutely necessary.

Reopening schools in Denmark did not worsen outbreak, data shows

Sending children back to schools and day care centres in Denmark, the first country in Europe to do so, did not lead to an increase in coronavirus infections, according to official data, confirming similar findings from Finland on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

Now another common feeling is that although the number of active cases is low we are at risk from the asymptomatic cases.There is though evidence that those who are asymptomatic are not great spreaders of the virus.Here is a detailed study of one such asymptomatic patient with many contacts.none got infection.

A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers

An ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread around the world. It is debatable whether asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carriers are contagious. We report here a case of the asymptomatic patient and present clinical characteristics ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

A German researcher looking at the area with the greatest number of infections in germany does not believe outdoor activities are not increasing the risk of infection greatly.

Germany's had more than 113,000 coronavirus cases, but fewer than 3,000 deaths. Scientists are hoping to unlock why. | Business Insider India

Scientists have been studying the hard-hit district of Heinsberg, Germany, to learn about the spread of coronavirus. Dubbed "Germany's Wuhan," Heinsberg has had an explosion of coronavirus cases, but very few deaths from the disease.

www.businessinsider.in

Then there is the example of Florida which closed down later and opened up earlier than most States.It also has the highest average age of all states and the most in aged care-350000 in 4000 aged care facilities.So here is what the Florida governor did.

"Florida, DeSantis notes, “required all staff and any worker that entered to be screened for COVID illness, temperature checks. Anybody that’s symptomatic would just simply not be allowed to go in.” And it required staff to wear PPE. “We put our money where our mouth is,” he continues. “We recognized that a lot of these facilities were just not prepared to deal with something like this. So we ended up sending a total of 10 million masks just to our long-term-care facilities, a million gloves, half a million face shields.”


Florida fortified the hospitals with PPE, too, but DeSantis realized that it wouldn’t do the hospitals any good if infection in the nursing homes ran out of control : “If I can send PPE to the nursing homes, and they can prevent an outbreak there, that’s going to do more to lower the burden on hospitals than me just sending them another 500,000 N95 masks.”

Where Does Ron DeSantis Go to Get His Apology? | National Review

The Florida governor explains a COVID-19 strategy that has gotten bad press and favorable results.

www.nationalreview.com

Brilliant idea.

So tgh you and i and the other old dinosaurs here will have to hide but let all these young uns enjoy their lives and not destroy their jobs.

 

[RooFlyer]

Australia, or rather, its component states, has been too conservative in its emergence out

Why ?

What do you think should have happened and what level of infectivity do you personally support ?

If you assume the the bug must become endemic a la USA .. the whole shebang was a waste of time.

If you hold hope for "practical elimination".. the conservatism you criticise seems entirely sensible.. AND.. appears to be a view supported by the majority.

I can't see any little bit pregnant option.. so perhaps you can elucidate me

Happy to. And others can read along too

What level of infectivity to personally support?
Well, personally, I don't 'support' any level of infectivity, but I realise that while the thing is swirling around the world, including in places maintaining daily passenger air services to Australia, sending ships here etc, it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from our shores for a long time. Even with incomers going into quarantine, the Rydges outbreak shows that our quarantine is permeable, which shouldn't be a surprise. Righto, so unless we want to have the economy shut down for another year (do you think JobKeeper will last that long?) we have to get used to the idea that there will be outbreaks here and there from time to time. That's exactly what 'flatten the curve', devised by all these high powered medicos, meant. A level of infection that won't overwhelm the medical system. NOT elimination, practical or otherwise.

What do you think should have happened?
I think the de-lockdowns should have come a week or two earlier, and continue to be lifted earlier than originally planned, reflecting the overwhelming success of the 'curve flattening'. Why on earth should we keep to a plan devised when things looked grim, when they didn't turn out nearly so grim?

If you assume the the bug must become endemic a la USA .. the whole shebang was a waste of time.
Maybe it will become endemic, maybe it won't. But I don't think saving countless lives here was a waste of time. I think Sweden has been wasting its time, and lives, and the chief medico there has all but admitted such today.
Oh, and here is the graph for the USA. In spite of their disastrous handling of it (if 'handling is an appropriate word), if they can head down, there's hope for us all.

Source.

If you hold hope for "practical elimination".. the conservatism you criticise seems entirely sensible.. AND.. appears to be a view supported by the majority.
I don't hold for 'practical elimination'. I think there will be outbreaks here and there in Australia for a while, and we'll just have to adjust to them - as we do for many infectious diseases and other causes of death. Sounds a bit callous, but its a fact and just about every accepts it, consciously or unconsciously.

I can't see any little bit pregnant option.. so perhaps you can elucidate me
Well, think of the current flu situation. A highly contagious, fatal disease that kills hundreds or more every yer in Australia. Yet we 'live' with it. Isn't that a little bit pregnant?

 

[Pushka]

More worrying in SA is a bacterial infection that is giving newborns bacterial meningitis with the source of the infection being directly from the neonates nursery in hospital.