The way out of lockdowns etc in Australia

[drron]

The problem is especially in Victoria they have fined over 6000 people for breaking the social distancing rules.Including in the last week.
Thttps://7news.com.au/news/victoria-police/coronavirus-police-fine-kids-at-melbourne-skate-park-and-tennis-players-in-maribyrnong--c-977158hey have included a group of teenage skateboarders-surely they could have been warned and tennis players on a closed court.

So if the Social distancing laws are ignored in the Melbourne demo then i expect many fines to be handed out.Consistency is essential.The laws are still in place.

 

[JohnM]

Secondly in terms of pandemic risk:

• there are very few infected Australians at large in Australia at present
• the protests will be outside

And that is precisely why the state borders should be open...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And that is precisely why the state borders should be open...

Yes I agree and this is what I have stated in many recent posts.

We now have an extremely low number of cases, and we now have in place the tools to manage hotspots.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The problem is especially in Victoria they have fined over 6000 people for breaking the social distancing rules.Including in the last week.
Thttps://7news.com.au/news/victoria-police/coronavirus-police-fine-kids-at-melbourne-skate-park-and-tennis-players-in-maribyrnong--c-977158hey have included a group of teenage skateboarders-surely they could have been warned and tennis players on a closed court.

So if the Social distancing laws are ignored in the Melbourne demo then i expect many fines to be handed out.Consistency is essential.The laws are still in place.

1/ I doubt that pro-rata that more people have been actively breaking rules in Victoria. It is more likely that Victoria Police has been more rigid in issuing fines , plus that Victoria has had amongst the strictest rules. Note too that many of the fines get waived.

Or are you really serious about all people in other states being materially different in following rules?


Victoria Police has the largest dedicated coronavirus taskforce in the country, with 500 officers enforcing pandemic regulations.

"It is arguable ... that the restrictions in Victoria are some of the more stringent and more constraining than other states," Mr Patton told a Law Week panel last week.

The Police Accountability Project's Anthony Kelly said there were concerns Victorian officers had been overzealous, particularly against lower-socioeconomic communities.

"Other police forces deliberately took a more educative and informative approach, so it deserves scrutiny to see which approach is more impactful to meet our public health objectives," he said.


The coughulative number of cases per head of population is essentially the same for SA, ACT and Vic. Amazing how all the rule breaking CV spreading Victorians have so far failed to generate a huge number of cases.


2/ If one examines the recent cases in Victoria one can see that it is the nuclear family groups that have been at the heart of most recent clusters. I am not sure they will be out in force in the weekend protests.


As long as the marches keep clear of places like Keilor they are unlikely to encounter a Covid 19 carrier, and even there they would be struggling as there simply is not that many infections about despite the current hysteria.

 

[OATEK]

1/ I doubt that pro-rata that more people have been actively breaking rules in Victoria. It is more likely that Victoria Police has been more rigid in issuing fines , plus that Victoria has had amongst the strictest rules. Note too that many of the fines get waived.

Or are you really serious about all people in other states being materially different in following rules?


Victoria Police has the largest dedicated coronavirus taskforce in the country, with 500 officers enforcing pandemic regulations.

"It is arguable ... that the restrictions in Victoria are some of the more stringent and more constraining than other states," Mr Patton told a Law Week panel last week.

The Police Accountability Project's Anthony Kelly said there were concerns Victorian officers had been overzealous, particularly against lower-socioeconomic communities.

"Other police forces deliberately took a more educative and informative approach, so it deserves scrutiny to see which approach is more impactful to meet our public health objectives," he said.


The coughulative number of cases per head of population is essentially the same for SA, ACT and Vic. Amazing how all the rule breaking CV spreading Victorians have so far failed to generate a huge number of cases.


2/ If one examines the recent cases in Victoria one can see that it is the nuclear family groups that have been at the heart of most recent clusters. I am not sure they will be out in force in the weekend protests.


As long as the marches keep clear of places like Keilor they are unlikely to encounter a Covid 19 carrier, and even there they would be struggling as there simply is not that many infections about despite the current hysteria.

You can get in to all the nuances around the points you raise, or you could say if demonstrations of many thousands of participants can be allowed all around AUS, then there is no justification for lockdowns/closed state borders.

 

[RooFlyer]

From the police reaction (except NSW), we can conclude now that its not the virus, its the vibe.

Crisis over folks.

You were studying medicine, so like me studying agriculture, we didn't have any free time time to attend those anti-Vietnam war demos.

If you'd seen pics of drron as a young 'un, you'd perfectly believe he'd be at anti-war demos!

 

[drron]

1/ I doubt that pro-rata that more people have been actively breaking rules in Victoria. It is more likely that Victoria Police has been more rigid in issuing fines , plus that Victoria has had amongst the strictest rules. Note too that many of the fines get waived.

The coughulative number of cases per head of population is essentially the same for SA, ACT and Vic. Amazing how all the rule breaking CV spreading Victorians have so far failed to generate a huge number of cases.

Except I didn't say that Victoria had more cases of people actively broken distancing rules just that more have been fined for that which is a fact.And just how many have had fines waived?The learner driver was told her fine was waived but still received it after that.just an administrative error of course though in a twitter post the mother was told that no one had informed the relevant people that the fine had been waived.

Vic driver sent waived virus fine in error

An "administrative error" has been blamed for a Victorian learner-driver being sent a coronavirus-related fine that was meant...

www.standard.net.au

So it seems that you agree with me that many of the lockdown rules had very little part to play in controlling the virus.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So it seems that you agree with me that many of the lockdown rules had very little part to play in controlling the virus.

With the benefit of hindsight it's easy for you to say.

We are still learning about the virus, including those who apparently have no symptoms at all. All very good for those saying people should have been allowed out and about, but then we discover it is airborne.

 

[tgh]

 

[kyle]

As long as the marches keep clear of places like Keilor they are unlikely to encounter a Covid 19 carrier, and even there they would be struggling as there simply is not that many infections about despite the current hysteria.

What if the marchers come from Keilor?

 

[jakeseven7]

If one examines the recent cases in Victoria one can see that it is the nuclear family groups that have been at the heart of most recent clusters. I am not sure they will be out in force in the weekend protests.

As we’ve seen with this highly contagious virus it only takes one person.

And no state is testing widely or deeply enough to feel confident about any sort of mass gathering, let alone one that will be impossible to socially distance.

As long as the marches keep clear of places like Keilor they are unlikely to encounter a Covid 19 carrier, and even there they would be struggling as there simply is not that many infections about despite the current hysteria.

There may not be that many known infections but we know this virus keeps popping up, so it’s clear no state is testing widely or deeply enough to few confident about any sort of mass gathering, let alone one that will be impossible to physical distance.

The optics of this are horrific.

All the second and third tier premiers will use this as an excuse to keep borders closed for even longer.

We can only hope the court action has scared maybe 30% of people away... and let’s all pray it pours with rain in Melbourne and Sydney especially today...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

0 new cases in Victoria today. The first since the testing blitz took off.

Though if you ignore the international travellers on quarantine daily cases have been low for a bit now.

 

[moa999]

Vic is also 4 days without a community transmission. Qld 10, NSW 12, everyone else 30+

Once these numbers reach 20 days, high probability (95%) that you've eradicated it but you still need to be vigilant.

New Zealand hits a 95% chance of eliminating coronavirus – but we predict new cases will emerge

There’s now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in NZ, according to our modelling. But as NZ prepares to remove limits on large gatherings, it increases the risk of a very large new outbreak.

theconversation.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So it seems that you agree with me that many of the lockdown rules had very little part to play in controlling the virus.

No not at all. Minimising the mixing of population is vital early on, and moreso when you do not yet have the tools available to suppress virus hotpots. Without say adequate test kits lockdown measures were vital.

Lockdown rules were and are still required at the right time. For example the international border lockdown controls will still be required for sometime. These will start to be eased with a limited number of countries in the near future.

When cases were taking off in Australia we needed the full suite of moderate lockdown measures that we deployed. At that time we did not have enough test kits, PPE, ICU beds, ventilators, contact tracers (all jurisdictions had contact tracing teams, but not enough staff for a pandemic). We also still had a population not practiced well in social distancing , handwashing etc. Lockdown measures are just part of of our overall pandemic response.

I personally think that the handbrake of our moderate lockdown measures could have been moved back more quickly, but it was, and is, prudent to do it in stages. This can only be done because overall we have done things well.

Now New Zealand in hindsight could have not been as extreme in their lockdown measures. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I doubt very few Kiwis will really regret for going as hard as they have.

Speed is crucial with Covid 19 and it is much better to have gone too hard, than not hard enough.

 

[Princess Fiona]

View attachment 219721

Yep, posted this exact picture a few weeks back.

Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

So why do you believe it was the lockdown of the economy rather than the lockdown of the borders that had the effect. Back to Taiwan-locked down the borders but not businesses and it worked. South Korea borders locked down and only targeted lock downs around clusters and it worked.

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

I couldn’t agree more.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

What if the marchers come from Keilor?

Too long a walk. They will get too tired

 

[Pushka]

Vic is also 4 days without a community transmission. Qld 10, NSW 12, everyone else 30+

Once these numbers reach 20 days, high probability (95%) that you've eradicated it but you still need to be vigilant.

New Zealand hits a 95% chance of eliminating coronavirus – but we predict new cases will emerge

There’s now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in NZ, according to our modelling. But as NZ prepares to remove limits on large gatherings, it increases the risk of a very large new outbreak.

theconversation.com

Just tell our bloody Premier who as of yesterday is completely ignoring the furore of the Police Commissioner granting approval for the demo today (I totally support the cause but not now) and basking away touting Kangaroo Island while the rest of us are still stuck on SA I think it's a conspiracy to get us to spend our tourist dollars locally

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic is also 4 days without a community transmission. Qld 10, NSW 12, everyone else 30+

Once these numbers reach 20 days, high probability (95%) that you've eradicated it but you still need to be vigilant.

New Zealand hits a 95% chance of eliminating coronavirus – but we predict new cases will emerge

There’s now a 95% chance COVID-19 has been eliminated in NZ, according to our modelling. But as NZ prepares to remove limits on large gatherings, it increases the risk of a very large new outbreak.

theconversation.com

New cases may still emerge (apart from unknown community commission you could say get a case from an incoming merchant ship etc), but this is why both NZ and Australia have now put in place a suite of hotspot control tools so that any new case or hotspot can be jumped on.

In Australia for example early on Covid 19 getting into an aged care facility did not end well. However the last half dozen or so (maybe more) aged care facilities where a Covid 19 case has emerged has seen it not spread significantly. We now have better tools, and better knowledge, on how to manage Covid 19.

 

[jase05]

Just tell our bloody Premier who as of yesterday is completely ignoring the furore of the Police Commissioner granting approval for the demo today (I totally support the cause but not now) and basking away touting Kangaroo Island while the rest of us are still stuck on SA I think it's a conspiracy to get us to spend our tourist dollars locally

The Premier can’t do much about it as he has pretty much ceded all power to SAPOL and SA Health. We don’t come out of the current State of Emergency until the end of the month

 

[tgh]

Yep, posted this exact picture a few weeks back.

My Apologies Princess.. should have attributed it.. mea culpa...
I thought it was so relevant at the time that I pulled a screen shot so I could drop it back into other conversations now and then...