Tony Abbott - New Opposition Leader

[medhead]

Ah la Latham? Interesting how the Liberal party are seeking to emulate Labour in leadership turmoil of a few years ago.

Still the mad monk will get (tacit and undeclared) support from Labour because they will rightly perceive him as being unable to win an election especially from a first term government.

So who will be the next leader of the opposition and when?

Don't know who but am very sure it will be before the next election.

I don't think that we should look to the ALP for thoughts on the future of the Liberal party. They are very different organisations. The ALP would normally rather engage in fractional blood letting instead of winning an election. The Liberals aren't like that. I still predict a merry go round between Turnbull, Abbott and/or maybe Hockey over the next 2 or 3 election cycles - a la the 1980s between peacock and howard.

Interesting that Kevin has kept his religion very quiet recently. Maybe he can read the mood of the public at large that we are sick of subsidising an extreme lobby group who don't contribute to society at all and deny any responsability when they stuff up.

Do you mean religion or the churches with the bold comment? Because if relgiion then I have to ask what about the salvation army? or the sisters of mercy - who run St Vincent's hospital in Sydney? Yep, those to groups have don't contribute to society at all, do they?

Or Mother Thressa for that matter.

(umm, politics and religion in one thread! )

 

[NYCguy]

Do you mean religion or the churches with the bold comment? Because if relgiion then I have to ask what about the salvation army? or the sisters of mercy - who run St Vincent's hospital in Sydney? Yep, those to groups have don't contribute to society at all, do they?

Or Mother Thressa for that matter.

(umm, politics and religion in one thread! )

Could be we were referring to extremist groups like 'Saltshakers', the Australian Xtian Lobby, the National Civic Council, Endeavour Forum and a number of other small, radical nutcase gangs who do nothing but spread their own brands of bigotry, intolerance and ultra-wowserism and contribute nothing to the social fabric of Australia.

 

[medhead]

Could be we were referring to extremist groups like 'Saltshakers', the Australian Xtian Lobby, the National Civic Council, Endeavour Forum and a number of other small, radical nutcase gangs who do nothing but spread their own brands of bigotry, intolerance and ultra-wowserism and contribute nothing to the social fabric of Australia.

But then I find these some of the most interesting and entertaining parts of the social fabric of Australia....

....and some of the most disturbing parts as well.

 

[Mr Ed]

1. Yes, Tony Abbott has a strong religious faith but so does the Prime Minister. How many times do we see him interviewed out side a church.

2. I believe both their views on faith should be asked as the faith can and will decide on how they view the world. i.e. Gay marriage, Abortion, Death penalty etc.

3. Both political parties go through this cycle.

 

[serfty]

Methinks we now have the leaders for the next election.

After which and sometime prior to the subsequent election, Abbot will stand down and Hockey will take over.

As for the Rudd ETS, it is as posted by drron, a "taxation bill that is hoped will change peoples behavior. ".

And more power would be tacitly given to those whose "onerous" task it is to distribute the funds ... (I want that job!)

 

[estate]

What a nightmare.

Liberals lose Turnbull, one of very few who understands that they need to transform into the New Liberal Party if they're to have a hope in the next election, AND lose ETS on the same day. At least if Hockey had won there'd have been a free vote and it would have passed.

ETS isn't a tax so much as an insurance policy. Yes it costs a bit, but it costs a helluva lot less than irreversible climate change. Even though human caused climate change isn't a rock-solid certainty (just a very likely probability) it's simply good policy and good economics to implement an ETS. It's our way of insuring the earth against climate change. Pay a premium, avoid catastrophe. No different to household insurance.

Plus Abbott is of course as socially conservative as they come. No doubt Wilson Tuckey and all his recalcitrant friends are satisfied. All they've done is gift Rudd a minimum nine year Prime Ministership. Imagine the debt after the first eight.

What a nightmare.

 

[Keith009]

I don't think that we should look to the ALP for thoughts on the future of the Liberal party. They are very different organisations. The ALP would normally rather engage in fractional blood letting instead of winning an election. The Liberals aren't like that. I still predict a merry go round between Turnbull, Abbott and/or maybe Hockey over the next 2 or 3 election cycles - a la the 1980s between peacock and howard.

If the current shenanigans in the Liberal Party isn't "engaging in fractional bloodletting instead of winning an election" I don't know what it is. Both parties have factions, whether personality based or ideological or both. But a crucial difference is that there is a particular commitment in the ALP to making sure that everyone gets something so that all major players have a sense of ownership over the party (eg the top spot is always occupied by the Right, with the second spot guaranteed for the Left; and all the factions seem to be proportionally represented in the frontbench despite the veneer of anti-factionalism that Rudd tries to project), whereas there is a 'winner takes all' approach in the Liberal Party, especially in VIC and NSW.

 

[medhead]

3. Both political parties go through this cycle.

Yes, they both go through this type of cycle but in a different way. The Libs in general don't have a Latham style of blow up. Turnbull is out today, and he has been damaging/insulting to his collegues, but he hasn't blown up like latham and hence he has a chance to be back at the top. Hockey as well, maybe, but I have reservations about him because he didn't seem to know that he should just keep out of it this time.

Basically the Libs recycle leaders, the ALP doesn't. Look at the result of most of their leaders after they lose the top job - Hawke gone, Keating Gone, Bomber gone kinda, Latham gone. Even Whitlam (I think) and Hayden (maybe, can't remember if he hang around for the first term of Hawke's government)

If the current shenanigans in the Liberal Party isn't "engaging in fractional bloodletting instead of winning an election" I don't know what it is.

Certainly a fractional thing, but a slight bleeding not really bloodletting. They didn't cut off turnbulls head and throw out the body for the vultures ;-)

 

[Keith009]

The Libs in general don't have a Latham style of blow up.

Nelson? But perhaps the difference is there might well be enough political fight left in Turnbull, whereas Nelson was near the end of his game anyway.

Oh well, looking forward to Abbott's reign. He is possibly the best campaigner the ALP has ever had.

 

[simongr]

Well for example, when a merchant wants to tax me (but more stated as a surcharge) for using an Amex, I automatically change my behaviour and flip out my Visa. If one day, due to the ETS, that my utilites have gone up by 10%, I'm going to go install some solar panels and make sure I get a 2nd rain water tank.

It i quite different. With something easily substitutable like Amex/Visa there is no switching cost (except points I guess) then you can modify behaviour and the consumer has direct visibility as to the tax.

As an individual now I wont have visibility of the tax on every purchasing and life choice I make - unless all purchases show the value of the ETS related cost. Equally you might not be able to switch easily. or example living in [insert suburb] I can easily get a train to work as I work in the CBD. If though I worked in [insert other suburb] only 10KM away I would need to buy a car as there is no public transport. So now I don't just decide between a car or train (which is my current decision) - I have to decide where I work, what my future career plans are - all based on a tax for which I have no detailed information when I make those decisions.

 

[drron]

It i quite different. With something easily substitutable like Amex/Visa there is no switching cost (except points I guess) then you can modify behaviour and the consumer has direct visibility as to the tax.

As an individual now I wont have visibility of the tax on every purchasing and life choice I make - unless all purchases show the value of the ETS related cost. Equally you might not be able to switch easily. or example living in [insert suburb] I can easily get a train to work as I work in the CBD. If though I worked in [insert other suburb] only 10KM away I would need to buy a car as there is no public transport. So now I don't just decide between a car or train (which is my current decision) - I have to decide where I work, what my future career plans are - all based on a tax for which I have no detailed information when I make those decisions.

I agree.Even when costs are basically known human behaviour can be difficult to change-eg cigarette smoking where there have been numerous increases in taxation and price yet ~20% of the population still smoke despite that and being bombarded with the medical evidence.
Also this example is a warning to the exponents of an ETS.Has the revenue raised gone into anti-smoking measures-a very tiny proportion,most goes to general revenue.With debt increasing dramatically I can foresee the carbon tax revenue going to pay that off not to subsidise other carbon reduction efforts as it should.
What amazes me is the number of our political journalists who are ignorant of Tony Abbot,s views-he has actually laid them all out in a book that was published this year.On climate change he says-
"Natural science has undeniably shown us that global warming is man-made and real. But just as undeniable is the economic science, which makes it clear that a narrow focus on reducing carbon emissions could leave future generations lumbered with major costs, without major cuts in temperatures."
So he is no climate change sceptic.Any double dissolution election using the ETS as a trigger could soon become an election with taxation as the major issue and our PM may find it not the cakewalk he was expecting.
From QF009-"Oh well, looking forward to Abbott's reign. He is possibly the best campaigner the ALP has ever had."Keith you may be right,but if tax becomes the major issue I wouldn't bet on it.A fellow who poses in budgie smugglers and goes on long bike rides is going to connect with the average punter a lot better than an investment banker or a mandarin speaking diplomat.He will not fool the intelligent posters here but we are well and truly a minority.

 

[Mal]

I can foresee the carbon tax revenue going to pay that off not to subsidise other carbon reduction efforts as it should.

Case in point is the Air Passenger Duty (APD) ex-UK ... does that money go where it should?

 

[UP4014]

What a nightmare.

Plus Abbott is of course as socially conservative as they come. No doubt Wilson Tuckey and all his recalcitrant friends are satisfied. All they've done is gift Rudd a minimum nine year Prime Ministership. Imagine the debt after the first eight.

What a nightmare.

Yep, and in the 2016 election I'll vote for the opposition, which based on the current trends will be the Greens!

 

[Cyclogenesis]

haha...

An interesting question is, with the coalition heading to the right and some daylight appearing between the parties will we see a resurrection of the Australian Democrats?

But yes... Watching Bob Brown in the media, he is clearly pleased by this and is heavily spruiking his candidates for the weekend by-elections.

 

[bambbbam2]

ask what about the salvation army?

Yes we are getting OT here but keep in mind that organisations like the Salvos are hardly impartial - in New York recently, the city announced it was extending marital benefits to same sex partners - the Salvos threatened to close down every soup kitchen in the city if they went ahead.

Back on Tony Abbott, he does indeed make Kevin Rudd look like an anything goes party animal, in comparison!

Hopefully the Fed libs won't end up being held hostage by religious extremists like the NSW Libs are..

 

[straitman]

Both parties have factions, whether personality based or ideological or both. But a crucial difference is that there is a particular commitment in the ALP to making sure that everyone gets something so that all major players have a sense of ownership over the party

Just as in the last Federal election (in my seat) where you campaigned, the ALP candidate was not even legally, by ALP rules, entitled to be a candidate due not having been a party member prior. Many old school ALP voters changed sides for that election and some have been permanently lost.

 

[Keith009]

A fellow who poses in budgie smugglers and goes on long bike rides is going to connect with the average punter a lot better than an investment banker or a mandarin speaking diplomat.He will not fool the intelligent posters here but we are well and truly a minority.

Posing in budgie smugglers, going on long bike rides... getting a sense of de ja vu here - but it didn't work out quite so well for Ted Balilieu in Vic state elections 2006. I guess his partaking in karaoke was a stretch too far for some punters to handle.

I just hope they don't start sending out DL cards of themselves in budgie smugglers next....:shock:

The perception of the ETS as a large fat tax on households is a worry, especially as the Government has now adopted the Coalition's amendments which give exemptions to big corporates, but not impossible to overcome as the policy isn't exactly a surprise and was actually a policy that was announced and voted for at the last election following the Garnault report.

Just as in the last Federal election (in my seat) where you campaigned, the ALP candidate was not even legally, by ALP rules, entitled to be a candidate due not having been a party member prior. Many old school ALP voters changed sides for that election and some have been permanently lost.

Fair point.

However that seat was never an ALP seat anyway and was not intended to be won, the focus was on getting a high profile candidate to distract the Nats which of course backfired as there'd been "issues" with the candidate chosen. I think there was also a myriad of state issues (Vic Labor's water policy in particular) that factored into the results in that seat. However I won't claim to be an expert on regional issues, only that it was a refreshing experience looking at a Nats/ALP 2pp rather than ALP/Libs for once (and I'd not done seats with ALP/Greens 2pp) - should've seen the looks on the Liberal scrutineers when the polling people didn't even consider drawing up a 2pp chart for the Libs.

What is more concerning is the N40 rule of NSW Labor where their admin committee has the power to overturn any local plebiscite if they didn't like the preselected candidate - cue Cunningham byelections 2002 where the Greens won a HoR seat for the first time; which should be a hard lesson learnt.

Anyway I was actually referring to factional involvement in internal elections, whether preselections, elections to party committees, policy development etc where more often than not, with very rare exceptions, there is generally compromise and consensus aimed at keeping people involved and making sure each faction is proportionally represented.

 

[MissBurrill]

Am at the Canberra QP. When I was being dropped off Mr Abbott was also being dropped off. Not too long later I heard a list of failed to board passengers. One of the names was Abbott.....! If I was him I wouldn't line up to board. I'd wait till the end too.

Karen

 

[medhead]

Yes we are getting OT here but keep in mind that organisations like the Salvos are hardly impartial - in New York recently, the city announced it was extending marital benefits to same sex partners - the Salvos threatened to close down every soup kitchen in the city if they went ahead.

Please do note that I wasn't questioning whether they are a powerful politcal lobby group. I was asking about the conclusion that they contribute nothing to society. Regardless of their views on same sex partners, a soup kitchen is a contribution, IMO.

Back on topic, I read so e of the comments regarding the ETS and the whole taxation question. Overall I kinda agree, but I think some of the fine detail is missing. The general idea of the ETS is that to cut emissions we need to reprice coal based electricity. This repricing then makes alternatives competitive. The adoption then of the now competitive lower emission technologies then allow those tehcnologies to be developed and possibly pushs down the price of electricity. Of course coal will continue as a source of power, but what we need is a mix of all sources (Ziggy report gave this answer). Down that pathway the problem with the ETS is the refusal to consider nuclear! That is soooo short sighted. But then that is the political situation.

In terms of knowing the effect on prices of an ETS. Meh! do we know the effect of payroll tax on prices? Agreed there is no need for another tax. Really what we need to do is total reform taxation and provide incentives to low emission technologies. Use the carrot not the stick.

Finally the example of smoking tax going to general revenue isn't a good example. That tax isn't used for education of preventation because people will still smoke. The reason it goes to general revenue is so that it can then be used to address the social issues of smokers -i.e. to fund hospitals treating lung cancers and that sort of thing. The ETS is probably a similiar type of tax.

Having said all that I'm not sure what we're going to do about the greenhouse emission from cows.

 

[drron]

The example of smoking I really brought up because one of the reasons for taxing cigarettes was to get people to stop smoking.But despite massive increases in that tax 20% still smoke even with the overwhelming scientific evidence of harm that is reproduced on each packet of fa_s.
Now last financial year I luckily qualified for the old rebate on solar panels-$8000.We put in $9000.In 9 months we have produced 2000Kwh of electricity.Our savings will be ~$900 per year.So a 10% return with a 25year quarantee on our panels.
Earlier this year we were in Germany.Amazed by all the solar panels we saw.Learned that Germany expects solar generation to provide 50% of its electricity by 2013.Any surprise then that the largest manufacturer of solar panels this year for the first time is a German firm.Australia used to manufacture panels but now doesnt.We really are the clever country