I suppose we'll have to respectfully agree to disagree. I think this is a small problem, relative to the airlines' continued flooding of points on to the market without corresponding increases in supply. These brokers absorb a tiny fraction of points out for a tidy arbitrage but I don't think it's leading to a major spike in demand for redemptions.
Where there is value there will always be opportunists to exploit it. We shouldn't sweat the small stuff.
We're not disagreeing about that. You have pretty much said exactly what I have said on this point - I have already said twice that I don't think it's having a
significant detrimental effect (yet). However, that is not the same thing as
no detrimental effect, which is what MEL_Traveller originally said. The reason this is (potentially) important is as follows: if there is a continual increase in the practice of selling points to brokers, that will ultimately make it harder for the rest of us to find premium redemptions.
Both yourself and MEL_Traveller have expressed concern about airlines flooding the market with points. It's odd that you don't recognise that this only becomes a problem if someone helps the masses use those points for premium awards. It makes no difference to anyone else when people get 100k points fro a credit card and then redeem for Myer gift vouchers, which is about the best use of points that most people are capable of finding.
So if most people don't have enough points for premium redemptions, and another bunch never consider premium, and another bunch more redeem for toasters. What's the problem? One or two people who have saved for years and can't get an award seat because a broker/person legitimately buying points/someone who's signed up with a credit card have taken the seats that are there?
My concern isn't the occasional person who have saved up for years - to be blunt I'm concerned for myself! Just to reiterate, the (potential) problem is that brokers will directly compete with me for the awards that I want, whereas the vast majority of the population will not. As such, I would strongly prefer if all of those points stayed in the hands of Joe Public, and per the T&Cs they are required to do so.
At least two top tier airlines release large numbers of first class seats in the couple weeks before departure (CX and LH), and yet cabins can still go out empty or close to empty. Others release large numbers of seats outright - BA and TG to name a couple. And those seats remain available right through the booking period (look at BA transatlantic - masses of space every day on every flight). SQ and EK are also fairly easy to redeem. If mileage brokers were taking all the seats we wouldn't be seeing that type of availability.
I'm guessing you don't have a lot of experience of trying to find 4 x J award seats on the same flights to the EU? I have managed to make this work so far, but just about, and there has only been one occasion (out of 6 or 7) when I managed to get award seats for all of us in both directions. Every other time I've had to pay for one person, despite having plenty of points. And that's despite searching every major airline as soon as they start to release seats. In other words, the current level of availability makes these trips
just about doable - any reduction at all could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
BTW, many people (myself included) can't wait until 2 weeks before departure to make holiday plans - both myself and my wife have to book leave and therefore lock in dates a long way in advance.