Ukraine International Airlines PS752 crashes in Iran [confirmed shot down]

[ontheaisle]

I found the bloke that gets his news from facebook

Hardly. And I'm not a bloke.

 

[ontheaisle]

The missiles were fired by Iran, not Trump...

I never said they were fired by Trump. Although his half-witted plays to his domestic base can have international ripple effects, as we've seen.

 

[Quickstatus]

I never said they were fired by Trump. Although his half-witted plays to his domestic base can have international ripple effects, as we've seen.

Ripple effects?.
I'll bet you don't know why the SAM site lit up/activated on this airliner and not any others.
Would appreciate if someone here can shed light on how a SAM installation works. To what degree are SAM sites autonomous?


The only international ripple effect I have seen so far is that its not looking good for the Ayatollahs who have been outplayed by Trump.

And the ripple effect of WW3 as predicted by some has not eventuated.

Hopefully the orange box can be downloaded, analysed and an official report promulgated, and the SAM site investigated. The Canadians are suggesting they are not buying the accidental missile theory.

 

[drron]

And this I would suggest is a crucial travel thread.It may cause ongoing problems over flying Iran.
It has also been reported that the Ayatollah has authorised security forces to shoot people protesting about the downing of this plane and the first videos of casualties are being posted.

 

[stm1sydney]

international ripple effects

The ripple effect is that the international community has finally realised that this Iranian regime must never be allowed to have access to or develop nuclear weapons. (Although sensible people have known this for some time.)

 

[Berlin]

The ripple effect is that the international community has finally realised that this Iranian regime must never be allowed to have access to or develop nuclear weapons. (Although sensible people have known this for some time.)

Which is precisely what Obama's Iran deal was all about. We're now closer than ever to them returning to their development process- thank you America!

 

[Quickstatus]

Obama just emboldened the Ayatollahs, and their nuclear program continued unabated.

Lots of anti Ayatollahs protests as a result of this shoot down. Even CNN is reporting it. Did not see that during Obama.

Iranian leaders facing pressure at home and abroad as public anger mounts over downed plane | CNN

Iranian riot police used tear gas to disperse thousands of protesters in Tehran's Azadi Square Sunday, as public fury escalates over Iran's accidental shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people on board.

www.cnn.com

Its too early to say whether Iran is at a political crossroad.

 

[Berlin]

Obama just emboldened the Ayatollahs, and their nuclear program continued unabated.

Couldn’t disagree more but I don’t watch Fox News either. And now we’re once again veering off topic...

 

[Major]

A bit more data on flight path etc.

Ukrainian flight PS752 shot down shortly after take off from Tehran | Flightradar24 Blog

ADS-B data from Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752 operated by Boeing 737-800 UR-PSR that crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran.

www.flightradar24.com

 

[juddles]

As everyone else likes to throw their comments in, I will indulge also...

This incident happened just after Iran launched some missiles. Hence everyone on edge.

The result was that one particular SAM battery fired on an airliner in error. Hardly a mind-boggling occurrence. This sort of thing is always a possibility, in a war zone, without adding endless plots and scheming.

And with perfect predictability, this is followed by also the usual:

(1) the event is blamed on Trump. Yes, if he hadn't done X then Y would not have happened. But if you want to be honest with yourself, you should continue following this back-logic at least to Jesus, if not earlier...

(2) A myriad of armchair experts will voice their opinion. Invariably illustrating both that they they have pre-conceived political ideas, and that any knowledge of warfare is restricted to whatever they have read from news reports on the current incident...

(3) the country in question, sufferring international backlash and internal pressure, will hang out to dry lower people that were just trying to do their job.

(4) whenever an airliner is involved, there will be the usual crowd casting aspersions onto their decision to fly. All these comments are made post-event. Always. 20/20 is the best eyesight.

(5) Noone in the commentary has had any experience nor understanding of the real, operational situation or reality. They have just seen movies... And they have no idea as to the pressures and dynamics of targetting/decision-making in these defense systems. I have no doubt that the algorithms that the SAM system had decided that the particular flight was a menace. The crew had mere seconds to react. When the fancy AI tells you that you are facing inbound destruction in a mere jiffy, I can understand a crew's decision to go with the equipment rather than boldly make a call on the off chance it is wrong.

Why is it so hard to accept that bad things happen in wars? It is tragic, but really it is tiny. More Canadians would have died on their roads in accidents in the last month than were killed in this error in the fog of war....

 

[MEL_Traveller]

(4) whenever an airliner is involved, there will be the usual crowd casting aspersions onto their decision to fly. All these comments are made post-event. Always. 20/20 is the best eyesight.

I think 4 is important to try and prevent something similar happening again? Or at least to assist passengers in deciding whether or not they want to fly a particular route or airline.

As passengers we now know we can't trust every airline or government when it comes to choosing safe flight paths. In the absence of official guidance, sometimes the best we can do is rely on surrounding commentary.

That sort of discussion can be had without discussion of the political component. Again we're being told 'the airspace was open'. But we were al assured after MH17 that that was going to change

 

[jb747]

Ripple effects?.
I'll bet you don't know why the SAM site lit up/activated on this airliner and not any others.
Would appreciate if someone here can shed light on how a SAM installation works. To what degree are SAM sites autonomous?

There can be any degree of autonomy. A poor model will have centralised control, whilst at the very loose end you have a system operating totally on it’s own. Centralised systems will be attacked, with the aim being to break their system down to local level control. That makes it less likely that aircraft will suffer co-ordinated attacks. Once the C&C is broken, individual units can be engaged. There was a tale yesterday to the effect that the missile batteries had been ordered to autonomous control, presumably as they expected an attack on their C&C.

Hopefully the orange box can be downloaded, analysed and an official report promulgated, and the SAM site investigated. The Canadians are suggesting they are not buying the accidental missile theory.

I’m not sure that it will show all that much. It certainly won’t tell us anything about whether the launch was accidental or not. It was on a standard SID. The missile site operators should have seen that numerous times, unless the battery had just been emplaced. They’ve certainly told the US that there is a valuable target nearby...though I expect they already knew that.

 

[Quickstatus]

The problem with Risk mitigation is that Risk is difficult to quantify.

One "elephant in the room" are the QF/VA passengers on codeshares with the ME3 who are transiting through the UAE. I wonder if any have cancelled their tickets and rerouted via Singapore and backtracked from LHR?. Are QF/VA advising these passengers about the risks?

The main benefit of QF coming back to SIN from the sand pit and also going nonstop is that it avoids the ME situation (albeit with slightly longer flight paths). I dont think potential for ME instability was part of the original reason though.

Video has been posted which shows SAM being launched with tail rocket flame then an explosion, followed by another SAM 30 seconds later and another explosion. I wont post here. It's too distressing.

 

[Quickstatus]

There was a tale yesterday to the effect that the missile batteries had been ordered to autonomous control, presumably as they expected an attack on their C&C.

I wonder what made this aircraft appear different to the others?

 

[UP4014]

A news update on Iran and the video post.

Iran Reportedly Arrests Wrong Person Who Recorded Ukrainian Boeing Jet Downing — Business Times

Iran said on Tuesday that it has taken into custody the person who filmed the accidental downing of the Ukraine Airlines' Boeing 737-800 passenger jet. However, the Iranian journalist who first posted the footage clarified that the person who filmed the incident was safe.

apple.news

 

[Brissy1]

I wonder what made this aircraft appear different to the others?

Possibly nothing. jb747 said it was on the usual departure SID (so don't wander off jb) and also the Major's link to the flightradar24 historical data, (hell even flightradar24 knew and tracked it departing, (actually even from taxying! when I played it back the same day) tehran airport).
So possibly the only "difference" was at the SAM site...the new 06:00am shift starting?

 

[Quickstatus]

Possibly nothing. jb747 said it was on the usual departure SID (so don't wander off jb) and also the Major's link to the flightradar24 historical data, (hell even flightradar24 knew and tracked it departing, (actually even from taxying! when I played it back the same day) tehran airport).
So possibly the only "difference" was at the SAM site...the new 06:00am shift starting?

That was my point. It looks just like a normal flight. Except it wasn’t.