United fly most frequently USA <--> Australia

[levelnine]

Compared to the other main route (LHR) it is good that an Australian airline can compete with the big guns. UA, AA and DL are the three largest airlines in the world.

It's simply luck. Most Transpac traffic is Australia originating & a large majority of customers have a home country airline bias when they travel internationally.

 

[SYD]

Most Transpac traffic is Australia originating & a large majority of customers have a home country airline bias when they travel internationally.

and “handcuffed” to via the respective Loyalty programs.

 

[dajop]

& a large majority of customers have a home country airline bias when they travel internationally.

I think that is correct for transpacific travel. But I wouldn’t say “a large majority” have this bias when it comes Asia/Europe bound traffic.

The likes of SQ, CX and EK have over decades built up strong reputations and strong brands such that the home country bias is signficantly less in the markets they serve. UA most certainly has not built such a reputation (nor has DL ) and as such QF’s entrenchment in the Australia originating transpac traffic is real. AA probably doesn’t need to as it can ride on QF’s coattails.

 

[justinbrett]

It's simply luck. Most Transpac traffic is Australia originating & a large majority of customers have a home country airline bias when they travel internationally.

I think QF does rather well attracting Americans, and there is a fair amount of two way traffic now the AUD is low against the USD; and this can be shown by the dramatic increase of US carriers in the market.

To be fair, I think a large part of that is AA/OW pax happy to fly QF.

UA/DL seem less successful attracting Aussies, besides the VA codeshares on the former.

 

[HS-TQE]

DL's portfolio before Covid was 1x daily SYD as they were basically using VA Long Haul as part of the former JV. However post Covid with VA's exiting Long Haul and switching to UA for codeshare, DL hasn't been that successful attracting Aussies, scaling back SYD from double daily in the NW to 11x weekly (and picking up the partial government subsidised 3x weekly BNE-LAX for the next few NW seasons)

 

[levelnine]

I think QF does rather well attracting Americans, and there is a fair amount of two way traffic now the AUD is low against the USD; and this can be shown by the dramatic increase of US carriers in the market.

To be fair, I think a large part of that is AA/OW pax happy to fly QF.

UA/DL seem less successful attracting Aussies, besides the VA codeshares on the former.

The data tells a different story: The great United Airlines Australian capacity dump of 2023 and 2024

Indeed, there is not 'a fair amount of two way traffic now the AUD is low against the USD':

While the strong US Dollar has certainly not helped Australian demand and likely weakened it, it has not supported US demand at all, or at least not meaningfully. While US carriers did experience increased passenger numbers from both US and Australian point-of-sale this is to be expected given their increased seat capacity to Australia alongside Qantas’s reduction in capacity. Essentially, they mopped up capacity rather than enjoying the gains of market growth.

 

[justinbrett]

The data tells a different story: The great United Airlines Australian capacity dump of 2023 and 2024

Indeed, there is not 'a fair amount of two way traffic now the AUD is low against the USD':

The US is the third largest inbound tourist market (more than UK) and only just eclipsed by China at #2. Are you suggesting they’re all swimming over?

International tourism results | Tourism Research Australia

Annual and quarterly International Visitor Survey results providing statistics on international visitors in Australia.

www.tra.gov.au

The fact that UA dumped capacity nobody wanted proves my point above.

As for the exchange rate I’m not just talking post covid, the last 10-15 years has seen the AUD fall from above parity after which UA expanded and AA and DL commenced.

 

[SYD]

What’s fascinating is UA had dumped that ex China capacity on Oz (they obviously don’t have QF’s problem of lack of aircraft) but rather than dropping fares, they were still charging the post Covid highs. Had they filled those aircraft they’d be making a motza.

Unfortunately for us, there was relatively zero movement in fares - if anything, they’re still creeping up to the US. So QF analysts are earning their keep.

I don’t know what the magic number is, but there is a point when the AUD drops and stays below a number, there’s a sudden influx of inbound tourism from the US. The horrible days of $1AUD<US$0.50 you couldn’t walk 2ft without bumping into an American.

I was travelling a lot to the US at the time and they the naughtiest, and my east coast American colleagues loved the idea of jumping on a QF 744 at JFK and flying on the same plane all the way to SYD.

 

[justinbrett]

I was travelling a lot to the US at the time and they the naughtiest, and my east coast American colleagues loved the idea of jumping on a QF 744 at JFK and flying on the same plane all the way to SYD.

IIRC in the latter years, the flight number continued on to Sydney but the airframe went to BNE.

I think before that it was MEL-AKL-LAX-JFK.

 

[SYD]

IIRC in the latter years, the flight number continued on to Sydney but the airframe went to BNE.

I think before that it was MEL-AKL-LAX-JFK.

There’s been several variations. The best was the same B747 all the way through. But yep, there was the A330 for a while. More recently, a B787 went to BNE and probably 747 before that as well.

I used to wonder where the A330 had come from not realising that they were doing AKL-LAX. It would have been a good utilisation of that aircraft - up there with a domestic asset.

 

[RSVKanga]

Can the moderators please edit and put a [Dec 2023] timestamp or [Not anymore] in the title of this thread. As shown in post #56, things have changed and UA as of now don’t fly the most frequently between USA<>AUS, and QF currently leads by a huge margin which is only going to increase after further UA cuts take effect soon. So this title is very misleading and could commercially influence some people in a false manner.

 

[levelnine]

The US is the third largest inbound tourist market (more than UK) and only just eclipsed by China at #2. Are you suggesting they’re all swimming over?

International tourism results | Tourism Research Australia

Annual and quarterly International Visitor Survey results providing statistics on international visitors in Australia.

www.tra.gov.au

We are talking about the size of Australia originating vs US originating traffic.

The data I linked to shows that Australia originating traffic is 2x the size of US originating traffic despite the US having 12x the population.

The fact that UA dumped capacity nobody wanted proves my point above.

Proving my point that UA increased capacity at a time when traffic from their originating market was not increasing.

As for the exchange rate I’m not just talking post covid, the last 10-15 years has seen the AUD fall from above parity after which UA expanded and AA and DL commenced.

Where's the data to back up your assertion that this 10-15 year period has aligned with a commensurate increase in US-inbound traffic?

 

[justinbrett]

We are talking about the size of Australia originating vs US originating traffic.

The data I linked to shows that Australia originating traffic is 2x the size of US originating traffic despite the US having 12x the population.

I think we must have a different interpretation of the word “most” which you originally used. I never made any per capita claims. I would say 1/3 vs 2/3 would be a fair assessment and in my mind would meet the criteria of a “fair amount of two way travel” (my original claim).

Proving my point that UA increased capacity at a time when traffic from their originating market was not increasing.

Also true. But like here many US travellers are loyal to one of the big 3 so there are a lot of AS/AA pax showing to fly with QF, if not the AA JV. An American not particularly aligned to any of the US carriers is just as likely to book with QF vs any of the American Airlines. QF is well known to many Americans.

Where's the data to back up your assertion that this 10-15 year period has aligned with a commensurate increase in US-inbound traffic?

Source: 3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Dec 2008

As you can see the US was well below UK and slightly below Japan. It now has 659K short term arrivals, CY 2023. Almost a 50% increase on 2008 and puts it in #2 after NZ. Even then it still hasn’t resumed pre Covid levels.

 

[dajop]

Moderat

and could commercially influence some people in a false manner.

I think you overestimate the influence of AFF! Not sure how a thread title by itself could influence people commercially…..

Whilst it would make sense to change the thread title, bear in mind loads of old threads become out of date, some sooner than others.

 

[RSVKanga]

I think you overestimate the influence of AFF! Not sure how a thread title by itself could influence people commercially…..

Whilst it would make sense to change the thread title, bear in mind loads of old threads become out of date, some sooner than others.

That’s true, but those threads die out and get buried in the sub-forums. Since this sub-forum is not very active compared to the others on AFF, this thread title has consistently featured on the home page of AFF on the UA sub-forum link for quite some time, so the thousands of members and non-members skimming across the forum every day will see it and could be falsely commercially influenced. The moderators should edit it.

 

[levelnine]

As you can see the US was well below UK and slightly below Japan. It now has 659K short term arrivals, CY 2023. Almost a 50% increase on 2008 and puts it in #2 after NZ. Even then it still hasn’t resumed pre Covid levels.

The two are not at all correlated over the long term.

One expresses linear growth. The other is mean reverting.

US inbound visitors since 1991:

USDAUD since 1991:

 

[justinbrett]

The two are not at all correlated over the long term.

One expresses linear growth. The other is mean reverting.

US inbound visitors since 1991:
View attachment 402580
USDAUD since 1991:
View attachment 402581

I agree there is not total causation but there is correlation. There has been a definite increase that is well above the previous linear rate at some point in the 5 years beyond 2008 (around the time of the GFC and the AUD being above parity). I never argued the exchange rate alone as the reason, but it is obviously a significant influence. Sure the USD has been worth more in previous decades and that didn’t have an equal increase in inbound pax to Australia. I never argued that it did.

It could be as simple as the good exchange rate was enough for the other carriers to commence the routes and once the capacity is there the market grows to a sustainable level.

 

[RSVKanga]

Are Australians continuing to economically punish UA after their failed extreme capacity dumping? - Even on their traditional stronghold of SFO. Los Angeles was never a UA stronghold when it comes to the Australian market, but it seems even their SFO flights are operating at half empty, while Qantas' flights to San Fransisco are full.

Economy cabin of United flight UA870 from SYD to SFO on August 20, 2024 (Not Blue = Vacant):




Economy cabin of Qantas flight QF73 from SYD to SFO on August 20, 2024 (Not Blue = Vacant):

 

[elanshin]

Are Australians continuing to economically punish UA after their failed extreme capacity dumping? - Even on their traditional stronghold of SFO. Los Angeles was never a UA stronghold when it comes to the Australian market, but it seems even their SFO flights are operating at half empty, while Qantas' flights to San Fransisco are full.

Economy cabin of United flight UA870 from SYD to SFO on August 20, 2024 (Not Blue = Vacant):

View attachment 403010


Economy cabin of Qantas flight QF73 from SYD to SFO on August 20, 2024 (Not Blue = Vacant):
View attachment 403011

Please don't use cherry picked apples to oranges comparisons for your argument using unreliable data (seatmap).

Firstly you're comparing a daily 777 service to a 3 times weekly 787 service. Next you're using EF seatmap which really means absolutely nothing for loads. Ive watched half empty QF seatmap loads become 100% full capacity (to my annoyance) in a matter of hours once airport check in opens.

Finally tonight's QF73 is cancelled which would see some pax pushed to aug 20 QF73 if they didn't complain and push the issue.

 

[clifford]

Are Australians continuing to economically punish UA after their failed extreme capacity dumping? - Even on their traditional stronghold of SFO. Los Angeles was never a UA stronghold when it comes to the Australian market, but it seems even their SFO flights are operating at half empty, while Qantas' flights to San Fransisco are full.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here Kanga. Any sensible Australian would not want to fly UA Y vs QF Y to the US, unless they are an elite FF.

That's not to say that QF is wonderful, but perhaps the least bad in this situation.

Personally, I wouldn't entertain the thought of flying transpac in Y on any airline. Have done it many times in the past (on US airlines), but not any more.

And who wants to fly all that way in Y a densified 777 or a NightmareLiner?