Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

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Going slightly OT, BUT related. Chinese Government one step closer to taking over HNA group. Whether they'll liquidate or merge it with another carrier is yet unclear.

Will be interesting to see what happens to HNA group's stakes in VA and HX. Will a Chinese investment company (or one of the CN3) get the VA stake by "default"?

Source: Hainan Airlines Being Taken Over By Government | One Mile at a Time
 
So, there was a rumour that Virgin couldn’t afford to pay for its contracted ground logistics company (payment / cash flow issues) and had to manage without powered pushbacks until head office got on the phone... 😂😊

The rumour was that they had to ask the ground staff to physically push their planes around. And here is the video proof 😂

 
Half page article in AFR today discussing how VA is going to be hardest hit and how their bonds they issued are hitting investors with losses .

I only quickly sighted the physical copy, so if anyone has e-access maybe they can summarise?
 
Half page article in AFR today discussing how VA is going to be hardest hit and how their bonds they issued are hitting investors with losses .

I only quickly sighted the physical copy, so if anyone has e-access maybe they can summarise?

Here is the part that relates to VA

Mum and dad investors who bought bonds in airline Virgin Australia are nursing losses of more than 10 per cent as investors and rating agencies fear the company will be among the hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

The Virgin bond sell-off comes amid a broader spike in borrowing costs for risky companies and a freeze in new bond sales as investors fear a prolonged crisis could lead to a rise in defaults in sectors such as travel and energy.

Meanwhile, the cost of insuring against the default by an Australian major bank, which had fallen to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis, spiked 40 per cent.

The $325 million ASX-listed Virgin retail bond was sold in November but fell to a 12.5 per cent loss as the market rate has spiked from 8 per cent at the time of issue to 11.3 per cent.

Virgin Australia's 'sub-investment' grade B+ credit rating was placed on negative outlook by rating agency S&P Global, that said the coronavirus would reduce the airline's earnings by up to $75 million and increase the risks that its debt load increases relative to its earnings.

"This is a business that has struggled to make money and the coronavirus is not going to help it turn around, "said Jonathan Rochford of Narrow Road Capital.

"Virgin listed notes are heavily subordinated – it’s a company you don't want to lend to and it’s part of a capital stack you don't want to be in," he said.

Virgin is among a host of companies considered to be especially vulnerable to a slow down in travel caused by the virus outbreak.
While equity markets experienced their biggest weekly decline since 2008, the riskier parts of the credit markets were also hit.

Basically VA debt bonds have a negative RoR and there is speculation that VA debt could be a doubtful debt on investors future income statements.
 
Share price went under 10c today after the S&P reports.

The VAHHA notes fell to $85 - down 15% on issue price 3 months ago.
 
Looks like the Financial Times (via InQld) has reported that the VA stake may actually be put up for sale. As opposed to handing it over to an government firm or one of the CN3 by default.


The impact if the coronavirus has come to the front door of Virgin Australia, with one of its biggest shareholders effectively taken over by a Chinese provincial government to prevent a collapse.

It comes as Australian investors remain skittish over the impacts of the virus outbreak while S&P downgraded its ratings for Virgin from stable to negative.

..

Over the weekend the Hainan Government and the China Development Bank moved in to manage the risks at the company.
 
To insure a risk does cost money.
Maybe not cost effective in a perfect world, but we have transferred all our Velocity points, into,KrisFlyer.
Better not having a 'Chance it with Ansett' moment.
 
Here is the part that relates to VA

Mum and dad investors who bought bonds in airline Virgin Australia are nursing losses of more than 10 per cent as investors and rating agencies fear the company will be among the hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

The Virgin bond sell-off comes amid a broader spike in borrowing costs for risky companies and a freeze in new bond sales as investors fear a prolonged crisis could lead to a rise in defaults in sectors such as travel and energy.

Meanwhile, the cost of insuring against the default by an Australian major bank, which had fallen to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis, spiked 40 per cent.

The $325 million ASX-listed Virgin retail bond was sold in November but fell to a 12.5 per cent loss as the market rate has spiked from 8 per cent at the time of issue to 11.3 per cent.

Virgin Australia's 'sub-investment' grade B+ credit rating was placed on negative outlook by rating agency S&P Global, that said the coronavirus would reduce the airline's earnings by up to $75 million and increase the risks that its debt load increases relative to its earnings.

"This is a business that has struggled to make money and the coronavirus is not going to help it turn around, "said Jonathan Rochford of Narrow Road Capital.

"Virgin listed notes are heavily subordinated – it’s a company you don't want to lend to and it’s part of a capital stack you don't want to be in," he said.

Virgin is among a host of companies considered to be especially vulnerable to a slow down in travel caused by the virus outbreak.
While equity markets experienced their biggest weekly decline since 2008, the riskier parts of the credit markets were also hit.

Basically VA debt bonds have a negative RoR and there is speculation that VA debt could be a doubtful debt on investors future income statements.

Thank you for finding and posting that!

VA is looking like jelly on a plate at the moment.

Who on earth is going to buy HNA's stake if it hits the market shortly ?

Etihad - don't have cash and have fires burning everywhere
Singapore - have firmly expressed zero interest (could this be a guise?)
RB - its not his business model to own large %'s of his companies, he sets them up then bails only holding a tiny % stake to ensure he keeps influence to make sure his royalties keep flowing
Delta - surely all airlines will be keeping their purse strings shut as Corona hits them?
 
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Etihad - don't have cash and have fires burning everywhere

They don’t have the cash or the appetite any more, but I don’t think they have fires burning everywhere, except for AZ, most of those fires have been well and truly extinguished (AB, 9W, Darwin airlines). :p
 
They don’t have the cash or the appetite any more, but I don’t think they have fires burning everywhere, except for AZ, most of those fires have been well and truly extinguished (AB, 9W, Darwin airlines). :p

Dark 😂

Though I think AZ could safely be classed as a bonfire burning through cash - even before Corona....
 
Thank you for finding and posting that!

VA is looking like jelly on a plate at the moment.

Who on earth is going to buy HNA's stake if it hits the market shortly ?

Etihad - don't have cash and have fires burning everywhere
Singapore - have firmly expressed zero interest (could this be a guise?)
RB - its not his business model to own large %'s of his companies, he sets them up then bails only holding a tiny % stake to ensure he keeps influence to make sure his royalties keep flowing
Delta - surely all airlines will be keeping their purse strings shut as Corona hits them?
Maybe TK are interested still?
I still think DL might come in though.
Having listened to the full interview with PS though I have faith that he can see VA negotiate these troubled waters and eventually turn things around.
 
Maybe TK are interested still?
I still think DL might come in though.
Having listened to the full interview with PS though I have faith that he can see VA negotiate these troubled waters and eventually turn things around.

The TK interest was debunked as false I thought....
 
IMO it leaves two previously mentioned rumoured outsiders in the past few years. NH and DL.

As stated by others, the TK rumours were debunked a long while ago.

I do wonder if SQ are "waiting" for the worst case scenario,, e.g VA "falling over" to pick off the "assets" (e.g 737s, SYD/MEL slots or the 4 owned 77Ws).
SQ are no stranger to investment failures: NZ/AN (bankruptcy debacle), VS (sold at a loss) and now VA.
 
IMO it leaves two previously mentioned rumoured outsiders in the past few years. NH and DL.

As stated by others, the TK rumours were debunked a long while ago.

I do wonder if SQ are "waiting" for the worst case scenario,, e.g VA "falling over" to pick off the "assets" (e.g 737s, SYD/MEL slots or the 4 owned 77Ws).
SQ are no stranger to investment failures: NZ/AN (bankruptcy debacle), VS (sold at a loss) and now VA.
Their financial position isn’t ideal currently but I still don’t believe VA is close to falling over like plenty of people are saying.
 
Their financial position isn’t ideal currently but I still don’t believe VA is close to falling over like plenty of people are saying.

As we discussed a while back, doesn't this depend on the attitude of its lenders?

I wouldn't like to have any financial exposure to VA. Despite the 'cost cutting', even if the bad news of the virus was eliminated tomorrow, there just doesn't appear to be any prospect of the organisation - in total - becoming profitable, and there's the small matter of billions in accumulated losses.
 
In a worst case scenario what would happen to everyone who has flights booked with virgin? Just bad luck? Same goes for velocity points I would assume.
 
In a worst case scenario what would happen to everyone who has flights booked with virgin? Just bad luck? Same goes for velocity points I would assume.

Personally I think its HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely VA will cease to exist even with all the headwinds they face.

Suspect they will continue to shrink and carve out a comfortable but smaller, possibly profitable (!) #2 position in AU - I think that is more likely.

If however doomsday happened (don't think it will) then VA and Velocity would simply wind up, the government absolutely would not chuck in a dime to rescue them. The playbook is written here. They might help 'facilitate' a deal for SQ or NZ to pick up the carcass and run domestic airline in its place, who knows really but highly doubt there would be a major intervention.
 
In a worst case scenario what would happen to everyone who has flights booked with virgin? Just bad luck? Same goes for velocity points I would assume.

A reasonable guide might be what occurred with Ansett Australia. You'd be an unsecured creditor, but IIRC would not receive any fares back as staff and the ATO would rank ahead of you.

That said, provided you don't make 100 bookings today for the next 18 months, the amounts lost by most in such a worst case scenario would be minimal. Like many AFFers, I don't let my FF points for any carrier build up too much as the airlines hold all the power and can devalue schemes at any time unilaterally, apart from the other risk about which you're concerned.
 
Suspect they will continue to shrink and carve out a comfortable but smaller, possibly profitable (!) #2 position in AU - I think that is more likely.

If however doomsday happened (don't think it will) then VA and Velocity would simply wind up, the government absolutely would not chuck in a dime to rescue them. The playbook is written here. They might help 'facilitate' a deal for SQ or NZ to pick up the carcass and run domestic airline in its place, who knows really but highly doubt there would be a major intervention.

Agreed.

From recent performance, I would expect the most Canberra would do is to fiddle with ownership or foreign investment rules around the edges to alleviate a potential collapse as long as they didn't have to spend a dime. [Edit: An observation, not a criticism]
 
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