Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

[oz_mark]

I doubt it will be another airline that buys them out, it will be the usual private equity firm where they will buyt it for a few cents to the dollar, hold it for a few years and then sell it off making millions in profit.

I think this is the most likely course. Go into administration - a large chunk gets sold as a going concern without the debt load.

 

[antycbr]

Doubt it, public sentiment seems really mixed / leaning to against a specific bailout from all my readings.

The story just isn’t that compelling and doesn’t tug enough heart strings I’m afraid.

It's a big annoyance for the Fed Gov, every single minister gets asked about it every time there's a press conference. They'll want to get it out of the way soon, as it's detracting from other messages the Gov needs to get out.

Also with the Chinese investor story it starts to get linked to other things that I suspect the Government would prefer NOT to talk about.

 

[p--and--t]

The QR brainstorming angle is interesting.

The QR chair seems to always be squabbling with OW and threatened to leave several times.

Just envisaging a scenario where he spits the dummy and leaves the alliance and decides to stick it to QF (because of EK alliance) and grabs VA to compete with domestic connections to Europe et Al.

 

[desafinado74]

The QR brainstorming angle is interesting.

The QR chair seems to always be squabbling with OW and threatened to leave several times.

Just envisaging a scenario where he spits the dummy and leaves the alliance and decides to stick it to QF (because of EK alliance) and grabs VA to compete with domestic connections to Europe et Al.

I would love it if that happens. QR's soft and hard products are generally solid, and i am always happy to see someone sticking it up to Joyce and QF.

 

[jase05]

The QR brainstorming angle is interesting.

The QR chair seems to always be squabbling with OW and threatened to leave several times.

Just envisaging a scenario where he spits the dummy and leaves the alliance and decides to stick it to QF (because of EK alliance) and grabs VA to compete with domestic connections to Europe et Al.

I’d pay good money to be a fly on the wall in AJ’s office if it ever came to fruition.

 

[antycbr]

The QR brainstorming angle is interesting.

The QR chair seems to always be squabbling with OW and threatened to leave several times.

Just envisaging a scenario where he spits the dummy and leaves the alliance and decides to stick it to QF (because of EK alliance) and grabs VA to compete with domestic connections to Europe et Al.

The other angle as well is that QR has been flying throughout the crisis and wouldn’t be bleeding anywhere nearly as bad as other airlines.

It also plays into middle eastern politics as it annoys EK via QF and replaces EY on the share register, the UAE is part of the boycott against Qatar.

 

[melb78]

I’d pay good money to be a fly on the wall in AJ’s office if it ever came to fruition.

Same here love to see the look get wiped out off AJ face if the chines buys VA

 

[jakeseven7]

It's a big annoyance for the Fed Gov, every single minister gets asked about it every time there's a press conference. They'll want to get it out of the way soon, as it's detracting from other messages the Gov needs to get out.

Yes, so VA needs to be hurried into administration quickly. It’s honestly going to be better for them than being sold off prior to administration, saddled with debt.

Post automatically merged: Apr 19, 2020

I think this is the most likely course. Go into administration - a large chunk gets sold as a going concern without the debt load.

Agreed. Its painful short term medicine but allows them to do a HARD reset.

 

[antycbr]

Agreed. Its painful short term medicine but allows them to do a HARD reset.

There's probably no better time to do it when the planes are on the ground and no-one is booking anyway.
Try to do it when you're operating and watch your bookings disappear as you are considered "risky."

 

[jakeseven7]

There's probably no better time to do it when the planes are on the ground and no-one is booking anyway.
Try to do it when you're operating and watch your bookings disappear as you are considered "risky."

100% agree.

In administration the gloves are off and all the fat can be carved off and the deadwood cleared without judgment - I fact it will bring applause.

VA has been fat and sloppy for a long time and I honestly think from PS’s actions and comments so far he would be good to stay on and do this.

Perhaps them same could be achieved with a PE owner / Chinese airline but certainly with a lot more strings and debt weighing them down.

 

[GoldCanyon340]

If VA has not been a profitable entity or paid dividend for many years, what would those China govt owned airlines gain, by buying into VA?
Its not like as if they don't know what they are getting into?

Two words: "Landing slots"

 

[TheInsider]

Two words: "Landing slots"

Landing slots, yes. But where? VA barely go international where landing slots are actually worth something. Domestically not really an issue.

 

[AIRwin]

Landing slots, yes. But where? VA barely go international where landing slots are actually worth something.

HKG? HND?

 

[HS-TQE]

Landing slots, yes. But where? VA barely go international where landing slots are actually worth something. Domestically not really an issue.

MEL/SYD slots for the LAX services. AA, QF or UA may actually be interested if VA and/or DL pulls out of TransPac.

Ditto with the UA slots on the SYD-IAH. That route has been a poor performer for a long time and is also a high chance of not returning, should UA not use that slot on something else, it frees up those slots in SYD.

 

[hydrabyss]

Just listened to the NSW treasurer talk about Virgin and a possible move to Western Sydney in the future in return for possible funding. Not sure how serious an offer it is but NSW are spending $93b over 4 years for infrastructure projects so not much of a dent to the budget.

 

[samh004]

Just listened to the NSW treasurer talk about Virgin and a possible move to Western Sydney in the future in return for possible funding. Not sure how serious an offer it is but NSW are spending $93b over 4 years for infrastructure projects so not much of a dent to the budget.

I think it would be a great move to the new airport (assuming that's what you meant) as I see that site as eventually having less troubles than SYD-proper... but I read something recently about the QLD government potentially putting in some money to keep their base in Brisbane? I can't imagine they could do both.

 

[hydrabyss]

I think it would be a great move to the new airport (assuming that's what you meant) as I see that site as eventually having less troubles than SYD-proper... but I read something recently about the QLD government potentially putting in some money to keep their base in Brisbane? I can't imagine they could do both.

He mentioned there has been discussions for some time regarding Western Sydney but it is not to be ready till 2006 I think. So not sure if it would be possible funding with a move in the future.

Everyday brings something new to talk about. All we need now is Branson to come back in the picture.

 

[UP4014]

I woldnt be so keen to have the chinese to take a larger stake. I would be happy to pay more for a flight.

 

[holdenmg]

I woldnt be so keen to have the chinese to take a larger stake. I would be happy to pay for a flight

Confucius say, you want larger steak, you still get dog.

 

[TheInsider]

HKG? HND?

Yes, but AFAIK HND needs to be use it or lose it.
As for the US - there will be very small demand for the foreseeable future.