Interesting, thanks - didn't know about this page. By the sounds of it, given there are no reward availability, it doesn't seem all too likely.
But then you'd probably just book the reward directly, no?
It obviously depends on points cost to upgrade which I haven’t seen anywhere yet but not everyone is blessed with large points tallies and they might think it’s worthwhile. I guess there would be plenty of reasons and I’ve done similar with other airlines in the past when it made sense
I should make it clear that I didn't know the page existed - Google helped me find it. And I did link the page and I'm simply giving my interpretation of it, because as you can see, it seems we haven't got down to the bottom of some of these things.
My guess is that the usual media - AFF included - will scramble in the coming days or weeks to seek clarification on these.
That said, I only
assume that if you call and there is availability for upgrade, it is processed immediately. That's how I read what it says on the linked page, because otherwise why bother talking about a waitlist separately if everyone would need to wait.
The costs for upgrading appear to be on the page as well:
- Economy Flex to Business: 69,000 points
- Economy Choice to Business (Gold and Platinum only): 99,000 points
- For reference, Economy Reward is 56,000 points and Business Reward is 119,500 points (from all Australia to DOH, except for PER, which is 42,000 and 89,500 points respectively), plus of course taxes and carrier surcharge of USD 100 for Economy and USD 200 for Business (if booked or amended on or after 1 May)
As a Platinum, for upgrading you're gambling between fronting up 119,500 points (sorry Perth, we won't assume you for now) and USD 200 and you get a Business seat straight away - assuming the availability exists already (and you can clearly see it online) - versus a Choice fare and 99,000 points (so the fare "replaces" 20,500 points)
or a Flex fare and 69,000 points (fare "replaces" 50,500 points), that you don't necessarily know
immediately will turn into a Business seat. Don't forget that if you buy the fare and upgrade, you still earn points and status credits based on your original fares. As a rough guide, a Platinum flying one-way on Economy Flex to DOH would earn about 15k points (except from PER); half that if on Economy Choice.
It would
seem the case that if there are few (or no) Reward seats in Business, then upgrades straight away would be unlikely, but this is just a guess (mainly based on a heuristic and experience on other carriers). For all we know, there may be special space available for Platinum (hey, maybe Platinum Plus may have the benefit that they can upgrade or book Reward seats into regular revenue space), or upgrade inventory may just be separate altogether.
Choice is the lowest fare type available on Middle East services. So any Gold or Platinum who isn't booking a Business Reward and is fully intending to fly on a VA wet lease service anyway has nothing to lose by calling for an upgrade as soon as their fare is booked; after all, if you still want a chance to upgrade, you have to go on the waitlist. Otherwise, have a look at the Reward availability on the day and flight you want to book (even better, see if you can use ExpertFlyer or the like to see the inventory). If there's no Business Reward seats and/or the Business buckets are looking a bit thin, instant upgrade chances are likely reduced.