Virgin Australia overtakes Qantas as largest domestic carrier

[Lucass]

Great VA news!!!
Virgin Australia has overtaken Qantas the largest domestic airline in Australia with a market share of 35%. VA has a 0.4% larger domestic market share than Qantas, and has seen a 15% increase in market share since December 2023. VA also recorded the highest load factors than any Australian airline with 93.4% of seats being full. The routes that are most popular are SYD-MEL, BNE-SYD, BNE-MEL, OOL-SYD and MEL-OOL. The airline also has a cancellation rate of just 0.6%. Wonderful VA news.

 

[Harrison_133]

Interesting stuff, but I think a few clarifications are needed.

Firstly, it's worth mentioning that this all comes from the February 2025 edition of the ACCC Domestic airline competition report.

Virgin Australia has overtaken Qantas the largest domestic airline in Australia with a market share of 35%. VA has a 0.4% larger domestic market share than Qantas

If you look through past reports, this isn't anything new. When split into individual operating entities, VA often has a higher share of the market at different times of the year – especially on Major City routes – depending on the type of travel that is popular for that month.

This report says: "December is generally driven by strong leisure demand and as such, there has been strong growth by Virgin Australia and Jetstar during this time. Qantas, which is relatively more focused on business travel, did not experience the same increase."

Point being, based on past ACCC reports, VA usually has a higher market share than QF in December.

and has seen a 15% increase in market share

It was a 15% increase in passenger numbers, not market share, which the report partly attributes VA as being the main beneficiary of Rex's withdrawal from Major City routes. This can explain why their increase in passenger numbers was more significant than QF.

VA also recorded the highest load factors than any Australian airline with 93.4% of seats being full.

93.4% on Major City Routes in November 2024. Their network wide load factor was 90.8% for the same month. For comparison, JQ had a 90.6% network wide load factor in November.

The airline also has a cancellation rate of just 0.6%.

For the month of December 2024. This was the lowest rate recorded by any airline in 2024, but their rate tended to be a little higher throughout the year (1-2%). Although VA had a lower cancellation rate than QF for 11 out of 12 months of 2024.

 

[Lucass]

Interesting stuff, but I think a few clarifications are needed.

Firstly, it's worth mentioning that this all comes from the February 2025 edition of the ACCC Domestic airline competition report.

If you look through past reports, this isn't anything new. When split into individual operating entities, VA often has a higher share of the market at different times of the year – especially on Major City routes – depending on the type of travel that is popular for that month.

This report says: "December is generally driven by strong leisure demand and as such, there has been strong growth by Virgin Australia and Jetstar during this time. Qantas, which is relatively more focused on business travel, did not experience the same increase."

Point being, based on past ACCC reports, VA usually has a higher market share than QF in December.

It was a 15% increase in passenger numbers, not market share, which the report partly attributes VA as being the main beneficiary of Rex's withdrawal from Major City routes. This can explain why their increase in passenger numbers was more significant than QF.

93.4% on Major City Routes in November 2024. Their network wide load factor was 90.8% for the same month. For comparison, JQ had a 90.6% network wide load factor in November.

For the month of December 2024. This was the lowest rate recorded by any airline in 2024, but their rate tended to be a little higher throughout the year (1-2%). Although VA had a lower cancellation rate than QF for 11 out of 12 months of 2024.

Thank you! Yes I understand, but still great news for VA

 

[Lucass]

Interesting stuff, but I think a few clarifications are needed.

Firstly, it's worth mentioning that this all comes from the February 2025 edition of the ACCC Domestic airline competition report.

If you look through past reports, this isn't anything new. When split into individual operating entities, VA often has a higher share of the market at different times of the year – especially on Major City routes – depending on the type of travel that is popular for that month.

This report says: "December is generally driven by strong leisure demand and as such, there has been strong growth by Virgin Australia and Jetstar during this time. Qantas, which is relatively more focused on business travel, did not experience the same increase."

Point being, based on past ACCC reports, VA usually has a higher market share than QF in December.

It was a 15% increase in passenger numbers, not market share, which the report partly attributes VA as being the main beneficiary of Rex's withdrawal from Major City routes. This can explain why their increase in passenger numbers was more significant than QF.

93.4% on Major City Routes in November 2024. Their network wide load factor was 90.8% for the same month. For comparison, JQ had a 90.6% network wide load factor in November.

For the month of December 2024. This was the lowest rate recorded by any airline in 2024, but their rate tended to be a little higher throughout the year (1-2%). Although VA had a lower cancellation rate than QF for 11 out of 12 months of 2024.

Also I'm not saying that VA is wayyy better than Qantas and beating them in every way, but they are becoming increasingly more popular, whether you like it or not, that is a fact

 

[Harrison_133]

Also I'm not saying that VA is wayyy better than Qantas and beating them in every way, but they are becoming increasingly more popular, whether you like it or not, that is a fact

I'm not at all disputing that this is good news for VA but you did selectively pull parts of the report which misrepresented what the data actually said. You raised interesting points but the context is important, hence why I clarified what the report actually said. Nowhere did I say that Qantas was better or beating them.

 

[Saab34]

It fluctuates up and down across the year.

However over the medium term Virgin’s fleet should really start to beef up a bit, with E-2s plus more MAX. I’d say they might start to outdo QF more often. QF also have a larger than normal amount of 737s grounded also, unverified but was mentioned elsewhere.

 

[jrfsp]

Thats correct if we pretend JQ has nothing to do with QF......QF group as a whole still has a 65% market share domestically.

 

[justinbrett]

It fluctuates up and down across the year.

And since a picture tells the full objective story:


-We can see QF dipped last Dec, and the recent dip was at a similar level.
-The QF group market share as a whole has remained more or less steady for the last 24 months
-VA appears to have benefited the most from the demise of Rex jet services
-The Dec 23 period that is being used as a baseline for the 15% increase was a particularly poor period for VA. In Jan 24 it was actually eclipsed by JQ's market share sinking down to third place.

 

[drron]

Though I would use different words to VA was"eclipsed" by JQ which suggests they were in the shade ie a long way down. I would have said they were pipped by JQ as in only just beaten.

 

[SYD]

Interesting. I recall seeing the figures from 12mths ago and a slightly different discussion at the time but I'm now curious - do QF Group actually put more JQ seats in the air at the expense of QFd seats? eg reduce some of say SYD-MEL QFd and put extra JQ flights in over the summer holidays?

 

[clarkkent]

The strongly anticorrelated fluctuations in the QF and JQ numbers as compared to the slower-varying QF+JQ curve suggests that most of the month-to-month variation in the QF and JQ numbers is people moving between that pair. With 4ish peaks per year, more JQ seats in school holidays perhaps? And/or simply loyal customers staying in the group.

 

[justinbrett]

Interesting. I recall seeing the figures from 12mths ago and a slightly different discussion at the time but I'm now curious - do QF Group actually put more JQ seats in the air at the expense of QFd seats? eg reduce some of say SYD-MEL QFd and put extra JQ flights in over the summer holidays?

I think the stats are pax not seats

The strongly anticorrelated fluctuations in the QF and JQ numbers as compared to the slower-varying QF+JQ curve suggests that most of the month-to-month variation in the QF and JQ numbers is people moving between that pair. With 4ish peaks per year, more JQ seats in school holidays perhaps? And/or simply loyal customers staying in the group.

I think it's simply that business travel grinds to a halt so the capital city routes have lower loadings, meanwhile those pax want to fly to regional/leisure destinations which are more likely to be on JQ, so their loadings go up.

 

[SYD]

I think the stats are pax not seats

Yes, but JQ hasn’t moved to standing room - yet?

I think it's simply that business travel grinds to a halt so the capital city routes have lower loadings, meanwhile those pax want to fly to regional/leisure destinations which are more likely to be on JQ, so their loadings go up.

It’s a really big up tick however in both years. No doubt the stats are out there and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more available JQ seats and reduced QF seats - which would be a sensible business decision by the looks. That could easily explain the “steady as she goes” overall stats for QF Group.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes, but JQ hasn’t moved to standing room - yet?

JQ doesn't fly 100% capacity. I'd expect the leisure routes aren't full on a normal Mon-Thu, but they would be over the summer.

It’s a really big up tick however in both years. No doubt the stats are out there and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more available JQ seats and reduced QF seats - which would be a sensible business decision by the looks. That could easily explain the “steady as she goes” overall stats for QF Group.

Well I don't think they're moving seats between the airlines, more of an increase in leisure routes and decrease in city routes - so it's not like for like seat swaps.

The question is where's the idle capacity JQ is sitting on? My understanding is both airline's aircraft utilisation is pretty much at capacity.

 

[SYD]

JQ doesn't fly 100% capacity. I'd expect the leisure routes aren't full on a normal Mon-Thu, but they would be over the summer.

Well I don't think they're moving seats between the airlines, more of an increase in leisure routes and decrease in city routes - so it's not like for like seat swaps.

The question is where's the idle capacity JQ is sitting on? My understanding is both airline's aircraft utilisation is pretty much at capacity.

Or maybe QF just reduce flights during that period which would have the same net result? ie schedule less daily flights in the triangle routes and sub the very few remaining wide bodies with a 738.

 

[justinbrett]

Or maybe QF just reduce flights during that period which would have the same net result? ie schedule less daily flights in the triangle routes and sub the very few remaining wide bodies with a 738.

Probably a combination of load factors and QF resting services.

Just looking at BITRE Sep 24 vs Dec 24 and seems to confirm this:


Dec 24


Sep 24


I had a look at SYD-OOL and SYD-CNS for the same period and QFg hasn't really changed, although it looks like VA added a few services.

 

[SYD]

Probably a combination of load factors and QF resting services.

Just looking at BITRE Sep 24 vs Dec 24 and seems to confirm this:


Dec 24
View attachment 432326

Sep 24
View attachment 432329

I had a look at SYD-OOL and SYD-CNS for the same period and QFg hasn't really changed, although it looks like VA added a few services.

Yep, there’s a 10% up tick in JQ sectors flown v decrease in both QF and VA. That’s a huge change relatively speaking.

So December is not a good benchmark month.

 

[clifford]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics​

(Not a commentary on the above, obviously).

 

[DC3]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics​

(Not a commentary on the above, obviously).

We could water that down to another quotable quote: “Tell him he’s dreamin”

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And the bottom line is really revenue.

Dun matter if you have wonderful capacity, and are filling that capacity. It’s more wonderful if you’re making the $$$.

I think Qf is making the $$.