There will be quite the uproar if at 80% of the 16+ population being double vaccinated we still have border restrictions given we are being told constantly vaccination is the way out of this. Given we are supposed to hit this target around early NOV I can see why they would be optimistic for xmas.
Well it would only be the 7th delay in opening - after the first 6 postponements....
Not sure the VA media release wording makes sense really since 'Summer season' normally runs December to early Feb (schools return):
"
The aircraft are planned for operation over the peak summer season to accommodate expected holiday travel, with an aim for all nine to be in the air by mid-February 2022."
Border re-opening
A rather large fly in the ointment to get in the way of VA, Q or Rex having a revival for Xmas.
One component (worth downloading the Doherty report & appendices) that is not being mentioned by any of the Federal mouthpieces is that there is one massive underlying assumption upon which all the various 're-opening' scenarios are based. Equally when you delve deeper into the report there is mention of 'days of targetted lockdowns' as well as
alternate measures to minimise lockdown requirements such as domestic border closures.
The underlying assumptions can be found from page 22 onwards and most have firm grounding based on what is the best information to date. One is/does not.
The key underlying assumption open to dispute is that
TTIQ functions nearly as well as NSW did in from July 2020 to Jan 2021. Around 88% of that peak level & in the major Q&A when first released the Prof in charge reitterated this requirement many times, as in 'all bets are off' importance.
"
Recognising that the TTIQ public health response will be less effective at high caseloads, we adapted this model to include an explicit effect of reducing the time to case isolation that can be achieved through intensive contact tracing."
Subsequently that tone has disappeared, along with NSW publishing most of the TTIQ metrics (last included August 26th).
TTIQ = Test, trace, isolate & quarantine.
So, with 80%+ fully vaccinated can still expect lockdowns & border closures when TTIQ is working at 88% of 2020 NSW peak levels.
Currently NSW TTIQ is around 8-13% of those levels. Tracing now is really just happening for regional NSW only & even then updating of locations has plumetted. From several times a day media releases, to daily & now weekly - the last two were Aug 22nd & Aug 29th.
www.health.nsw.gov.au
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I hope Bain have gone for 'pay per hour' instead of 'take & pay' leasing as the rising incidence of breakthrough infections in NSW hospital/health staff does not augur well. That data has been removed from 3 different NSW Health reports that previously provided the figures weekly. A bit like the 'isolation' status announcement at NSW's 11am briefings.
NSW Contact Tracing team size (including help from other States) has been stable for 6 weeks now. Daily cases averaged under 130 per day then.
Yesterday another shoe dropped with the NSW Police revealing that since the compliance operation was ramped up two weeks ago they've "conducting 40,877 welfare engagements (compliance checks)". Problem is they're finding too many people out & about.
At the same time, conducting 'curfew' operations they're catching CV+ people out getting their latest drug supply, or in this case "the outstanding warrant for
three counts of fail to comply with self-isolation direction was also executed. Inquiries confirmed the Bankstown man was COVID positive. He appeared at Parramatta Local Court on Wednesday 25 August where he was formally refused bail to appear at Bankstown Local Court on Wednesday 6 October 2021."
Fourth time unlucky for the community - he was caught at a train station.
Looking forward to V status extension to January 2023.
