Virgin to lose A330's and B777's - become mid range airline - really?

[Moopere]

I can’t see QF flooding transcon market with empty A330s anytime soon ....

Narrow bodies will be the reality. Without VA competing with lie-flat J on transcon .... who knows.

Remember, before VA - QF gave us 7 across business class in an A332!!

I hope you enjoyed the good times during the capacity wars ... the dream is over I’m afraid.

I don't remember that. I remember doing transcon on the creaky old 767's in J. Although they badly needed a refit the platform itself was great and I loved them a lot. Quiet and space to breath.

If the future really turns out to be narrow bodies with cough J at premium pricing ... well .. my for-work travel is mostly over and I don't see it firing up again any time (or year) soon, I guess the default position will be to restrict domestic to must-travel rather than nice-to-travel.

Its not a threat, airlines will do whatever they feel is right, of course, but I've never been one to eat my dog food, so I guess international beckons Even more reason to keep in good shape with SQ hehe.

 

[Moopere]

Although no one knows what will happen in the future I would like to suggest that SQ into and out AU is far from over. SQ would be one of the biggest feeders into and out of AU apart from QF and sure there are other players however most of these are already part of a formal alliance (partnership) e.g. JL, CX, QR, BA (EK, MU etc.) When it comes to VA no matter how convoluted the alliance program the main stayer (to the best of my knowledge) was SQ and EY with others been marginal.

Mmm. Its a good point and I hope this fact continues to play a strong role. Too early of course to see how strong the relationship may continue to be. It took decades to get snuggly like last time, maybe we'll never get back to being that close - but who knows? Can only hope.

 

[Moopere]

Given that the only markets we're likely to see in Australia any time soon (measured in years) will be internal state routes, I can't see any need for anything larger than a Cessna.

My bet is that the ongoing border closures will ultimately kill both major airlines, with the airports not being far behind.

I would agree; If things continue as they are and likely will be for the rest of this year. However, reality is going to have to hit us at some point with relation to the wider global and domestic economies. If we continue in this shutdown state then the airlines and airports going broke will be the very last of our problems.

I'm sort of assuming that life will be open to a return to normal sometime around 1st QTR next year, by hook or by crook. Which is not to say that I believe COVID will be gone by then, no, not at all. I'm one who thinks this will be with us forever and we're just going to be forced to live with it in whatever form that takes.

 

[HS-TQE]

Even that's not a certainty.

Alliances will need to be reestablished under the new owners. Given the established relationships and noises so far, it's proabably likely, but it's not a given.

Considering the "Big 3" of SQ, DL and EY were the main partners of VA in the end. If partnerships were to be re-established with those three, it'll likely to be scaled back. It's also not a guarantee that EY and DL may their partnerships re-established considering both carriers have announced that they'll be scaling back in a post-COVID world, in addition to EY scaling back prior to COVID.

SQ also has the "brand" recognition to survive only on interlines on both QF and VA. But it's been tipped they're likely to re-establish a partnership with VA-mk2, even if it's scaled back from the 'unsustainable' version that SQ had with VA-mk1.

 

[jakeseven7]

I agree with the opinions on here, I think the VFF point transfer to SQ has gone the way of the dodo and am so thankful (Thanks to certain members on this forum) that I bailed my points out of VFF before the collapse.

New VA2 flying?

- Personally I will be staying away for a while. I just don't want to spread myself too thin and on another 'second' AU airline which always seems to end in tears. Their new offer also doesn't sound that interesting to me (I understand that is personal and some people will be happy with a more downmarket VA2). I also fly regionally alot for leisure/family/friends where VA1 was already painful to use and appears VA2 won't even bother trying.

- From a business perspective we've blocked VA1 from our booking tool since the collapse and our contract has now been terminated with them, so VA2 will have to come up with something pretty impressive to win us back. We have gone back to QF/JQ and in the process of negotiating for an all of travel contract (ex international) with them.

 

[G B]

Maybe they are trying to copy the Southwest model.

 

[here we go]

surely Bain won't be able to sell 4 of virgins B773s for anything meaningful. The used market for aircraft is apparently non-existent.

Surely would be better things to do with them.

Was reading in another forum about having an airline within an airline, sort of like Jetstar but using Qantas aircraft, at quiet times like all day Saturday & Sundays before 3pm + Monday, Friday & Saturday nights late (Monday as Tuesday is quietest day of working week, Friday night, as Saturday am no peak hour & Saturday night as not much demand early Sunday).

It was suggested, that either virgin employ crews on a part time basis, on lower pay scale or that pilots who were not employed by virgin, such as the A330 & B773 pilots, could operate the flights on some sort of charter basis, as virtually no demand for pilots anywhere for a few years.

Insurance might be complicated if pilots didn't work for airline, although airlines do dry lease(not including crews) aircraft to other airlines.

Virgin did have 60 or more flights a week Australia to Auckland & many more to other NZ ports & 20 plus to Fiji a week. Even if only dozen or so operated to Auckland, dozen or so to Fiji, it would mean a few things, that would keep frequent flyers happy

1) they could use their virgin frequent flyer points

2) they could earn more frequent flyer points

3) those with virgin credits could actually use them on some routes they actually wanted to go to.

 

[muppet]

surely Bain won't be able to sell 4 of virgins B773s for anything meaningful. The used market for aircraft is apparently non-existent.
...

I assumed whichever creditors had debt secured against those 777s would take delivery of them and the debt cancelled. (Noting i have no idea the legalities of DOCAs)

I can’t see a DOCA in which Bain fully pays all the secured creditors their $2.3 billion plus pays employee entitlements plus partially pays unsecured and then recapitalises the business with cash.

 

[Moopere]

surely Bain won't be able to sell 4 of virgins B773s for anything meaningful. The used market for aircraft is apparently non-existent.

Yes, I can well imagine. Airlines going pop all over, no full recovery even in sight - there must be airports blocked with unused and unloved aircraft all over the world.

Surely would be better things to do with them.

Indeed. Same with the A330's. Who's going to want to buy into 10yo 332's in the current market? Reduce your 737 flights and consolidate the passengers into less 332's.

I've never worked at the back-end of aviation - perhaps it can be more expensive to fly these things than to simply ground them and let them moulder?

 

[muppet]

Indeed. Same with the A330's. Who's going to want to buy into 10yo 332's in the current market? Reduce your 737 flights and consolidate the passengers into less 332's.

The A332s are leased so those leases will be cancelled as part of the DOCA and the metal returned to their owners.

 

[jakeseven7]

As someone who hates 737's regardless of who flies them, I'm praying QF don't mothball their A330's as well

 

[antycbr]

As someone who hates 737's regardless of who flies them, I'm praying QF don't mothball their A330's as well

At the moment a Saab or dash 8 would suffice for most interstate routes in Australia.

 

[antycbr]

Yes, I can well imagine. Airlines going pop all over, no full recovery even in sight - there must be airports blocked with unused and unloved aircraft all over the world.




Indeed. Same with the A330's. Who's going to want to buy into 10yo 332's in the current market? Reduce your 737 flights and consolidate the passengers into less 332's.

I've never worked at the back-end of aviation - perhaps it can be more expensive to fly these things than to simply ground them and let them moulder?

For business travel frequency is more important than capacity which is why both VA and QF operate 737s over larger aircraft on the golden triangle so that they can offer a variety of times for those who have flexible fares to move to earlier flights.

Big aircraft take a long time to turn around at each end as well, if you’re in row 50 something and only going from the front door it will take far longer than a 737 to disembark.

The 737 aircraft also provides options for off peak services. VA offered a large bank of leisure destinations during the daytime such as ASP and HTI and then bring the aircraft back on to the trunk routes in the evening peak. A330 won’t fit into most leisure airports even if they could sell enough of the seats to make a profit which they can’t.

 

[jakeseven7]

At the moment a Saab or dash 8 would suffice for most interstate routes in Australia.

Lucky I love the Dash 8 series aircraft! They are roomier than a 737!

 

[Moopere]

For business travel frequency is more important than capacity which is why both VA and QF operate 737s over larger aircraft on the golden triangle so that they can offer a variety of times for those who have flexible fares to move to earlier flights.

Big aircraft take a long time to turn around at each end as well, if you’re in row 50 something and only going from the front door it will take far longer than a 737 to disembark.

The 737 aircraft also provides options for off peak services. VA offered a large bank of leisure destinations during the daytime such as ASP and HTI and then bring the aircraft back on to the trunk routes in the evening peak. A330 won’t fit into most leisure airports even if they could sell enough of the seats to make a profit which they can’t.

I have no doubt that the above is true ... but gee, its a grim outlook

I have tried but can barely enunciate just how much I dislike 737's. The golden age is over (weep), its going to be 'eat your dogfood or starve'.

Lets see how QF does with their fleet - as I allude to in the OP, all this might end up being the end for me insofar as my long and loving relationship with VA.

 

[antycbr]

I have no doubt that the above is true ... but gee, its a grim outlook

I have tried but can barely enunciate just how much I dislike 737's. The golden age is over (weep), its going to be 'eat your dogfood or starve'.

Lets see how QF does with their fleet - as I allude to in the OP, all this might end up being the end for me insofar as my long and loving relationship with VA.

Even without Covid VA was moving the A332s off transcontinental flights anyway over time. A love affair that wasn’t made to last.

 

[kamchatsky]

At the moment a Saab or dash 8 would suffice for most interstate routes in Australia.

I flew NTL-CBR in the past on FlyPelican. Their Jetstream 32 is another great option. Love the view of the pilot coughpit from the passenger seat.

FlyPelican - Our Fleet - Jetstream 32

FlyPelican operates a fleet of Jetstream 32 Turboprop aircraft.

flypelican.com.au

 

[antycbr]

I flew NTL-CBR in the past on FlyPelican. Their Jetstream 32 is another great option. Love the view of the pilot coughpit from the passenger seat.

FlyPelican - Our Fleet - Jetstream 32

FlyPelican operates a fleet of Jetstream 32 Turboprop aircraft.

flypelican.com.au

I remember flying SYD to CBR on Impulse on a Beechcraft 1900D. The flight was supposed to go on to OOM but due to delays those pax had a taxi transfer!

 

[jb747]

Big aircraft take a long time to turn around at each end as well, if you’re in row 50 something and only going from the front door it will take far longer than a 737 to disembark.

They do take longer, but they can work on turnarounds in the order of 45 minutes. The biggest issue has always been that there is a disconnect between the published schedules and the actual flight times. Then you end up trying to make up time during an already minimal turnaround, which why so many flights become progressively later during the day.

Lucky I love the Dash 8 series aircraft! They are roomier than a 737!

Noisier too. I think I'd rather be on a Saab 340 than listen to the drone of the Dash.

 

[jakeseven7]

They do take longer, but they can work on turnarounds in the order of 45 minutes. The biggest issue has always been that there is a disconnect between the published schedules and the actual flight times. Then you end up trying to make up time during an already minimal turnaround, which why so many flights become progressively later during the day.



Noisier too. I think I'd rather be on a Saab 340 than listen to the drone of the Dash.

The hum of a dash 8 actually lulls me to sleep