Volcanic Ash flight disruptions June 2011

[nlagalle]

Well I am stranded in SYD after flying up this morning. at the moment I am booked on the 11am home tomorrow if it improves. I've been told to head to the airport to see about accom vouchers and they said as a WP I should get looked after...

 

[pshepvic]

What is annoying me now is that none of the airlines are communicating as to what is happening with flights tomorrow.

So I've now got 2 bookings out of Tassie to Melbourne - one on VA at 13:40 from Launceston and the other at 22:20 on JQ from Hobart. And lucky I booked the VA flight early this morning as all their flights for tomorrow appear to be booked out.

Tomorrow will consist of a drive to Launceston in the hope my VA flight will depart, and another drive back to Hobart if it doesn't.

Clearly it was safe today to fly at lower altitudes, as I've heard no reports of any issues to the VA flights. I honestly think it's a case of QF being over paranoid because of their recent bad publicity on regards to safety. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the airlines being cautious, but if the issue was that severe, I'm sure CASA would ground all flights rather than giving airlines the option to fly at a different altitude.

 

[farstar]

Is there any word when it will improve? I am worried now.

I am on JQ 8 on the 14th after connecting from QF010 hope I don't get stuck in Singapore.

 

[mannej]

Clearly it was safe today to fly at lower altitudes, as I've heard no reports of any issues to the VA flights. I honestly think it's a case of QF being over paranoid because of their recent bad publicity on regards to safety. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the airlines being cautious, but if the issue was that severe, I'm sure CASA would ground all flights rather than giving airlines the option to fly at a different altitude.

Has the advisory changed? If not, then why have DJ and TT cancelled flights?

We have a member on here who would be the most qualified person on the forum to talk about the issue stating the extreme danger that Volcanic Ash. It was also stated that just because another airline decides to fly, it does not make it safe. From that it is not clearly a case of operations being clearly safe. I would rather QF be paranoid then have an ash induced incident.

 

[markis10]

It's not looking good for AM tomorrow for MEL and south, fun and games, DJ are doing a good job.

Has the advisory changed? If not, then why have DJ and TT cancelled flights?

Yes, the cloud is predicted to go north to the NSW border by 10AM.

 

[pshepvic]

Has the advisory changed? If not, then why have DJ and TT cancelled flights?

We have a member on here who would be the most qualified person on the forum to talk about the issue stating the extreme danger that Volcanic Ash. It was also stated that just because another airline decides to fly, it does not make it safe. From that it is not clearly a case of operations being clearly safe. I would rather QF be paranoid then have an ash induced incident.

DJ and TT have cancelled flights because MEL is closed. TT normally keeps all aircraft at MEL overnight, and now can't get any in or out. At this stage, i understand that DJ have only cancelled flights in/out of Melbourne after 6pm. According to the DJ website, the Hobart to Sydney flight still left at 5:34pm.

I didn't say that because another airline chooses to fly it makes it safe. I said that there was no incident with the flights that have operated so far, therefore it was safe to operate those flights. I was looking at it retrospectively.

And again, CASA would ground all flights, rather than give them the option of adjusting altitude, if they believed that there was a risk.

 

[oz_mark]

It's not looking good for AM tomorrow for MEL and south, fun and games, DJ are doing a good job.



Yes, the cloud is predicted to go north to the NSW border by 10AM.

One thing to bear in mind, is that while it is predicted to move north overnight, you can only know exactly where it is by observing it, and it is unfortunately essentially invisible at night.

 

[pshepvic]

One thing to bear in mind, is that while it is predicted to move north overnight, you can only know exactly where it is by observing it, and it is unfortunately essentially invisible at night.

I take it that's probably why they've closed the airport overnight, to see where it is in the morning.

But with fog forecast for Melbourne again tomorrow, the volcano may not be the only thing causing disruptions again!

And here we were all worrying about industrial action causing issues with flights...

 

[markis10]

One thing to bear in mind, is that while it is predicted to move north overnight, you can only know exactly where it is by observing it, and it is unfortunately essentially invisible at night.

There is no difference between day or night when it comes to ash detection as its done by the IR sensors on the sats, in standard visible and infrared satellite imagery volcanic ash clouds can resemble water-bearing clouds, radiative absorption properties of the silicate in the volcanic ash are different to those of water in the infrared wavelength range 10-12 microns. An image showing the brightness temperature difference between channels at 10.8 and 12.0 microns (BT10.8 - BT12.0) can be used to distinguish volcanic ash from water-bearing clouds.

 

[oz_mark]

I take it that's probably why they've closed the airport overnight, to see where it is in the morning.

I am not sure they have actually closed the airport. In bound (non QF) international flights still seem to be listed as on their way. Whether they divert or not remains to be seen.

 

[straitman]

To a point these decisions are just another risk assessment and ultimately very subjective. Who really knows why one airline opts one way and another a different way. Ultimately they have all come to the same conclusion.

I didn't say that because another airline chooses to fly it makes it safe. I said that there was no incident with the flights that have operated so far, therefore it was safe to operate those flights. I was looking at it retrospectively.

It is not even enough to say this as who really knows what (if any) damage has been done to the engines of those aircraft that did operate.

And again, CASA would ground all flights, rather than give them the option of adjusting altitude, if they believed that there was a risk.

CASA are pretty much a toothless tiger these days and it is a long weekend so they'll all be on days off.

 

[straitman]

Interesting that prop driven/not jet services are in the same boat.

A Turboprop will be affected by ash, as will it's Jet APU.

Put simply a Turboprop is a jet engine with a propeller attached.

 

[pshepvic]

Oh well it's all seeming to get worse now anyway - just spoke to VA and they're unsure if any flights will leave LST tomorrow, or HBA. Instruction was to wait until tomorrow and that they are avoiding canceling flights until as late as possible "to avoid disrupting people as much as possible" - but I don't fancy driving 2.5 hours up to LST if they're just going to cancel it when I get there - that's more of a disruption for me!

 

[straitman]

I am not sure they have actually closed the airport. In bound (non QF) international flights still seem to be listed as on their way. Whether they divert or not remains to be seen.

I agree.

The METAR, TAF and NOTAMs for YMML do not mention a closure.

METAR
TTF SPECI YMML 121000Z 17010KT 9999 BKN012 11/09 Q1030 RMK RF00.0/000.2 NOSIG

TAF
TAF AMD YMML 120921Z 1209/1312 18008KT 8000 BKN012 BECMG 1301/1303 15010KT 9999 SCT020 SCT035 BECMG 1309/1311 VRB05KT 8000 HAZE FEW010 PROB30 1210/1302 0500 FOG RMK T 10 09 09 08 Q 1030 1029 1029 1028

ATIS
ATIS YMML R 120926 APCH: EXPECT INSTRUMENT APPROACH RWY: 16 FOR ARRS. RWY 27 FOR DEPS OPR INFO: RAPID EXIT TWY G NOT AVBL WIND: 170/10. MAX DW 3 KTS RWY 27 VIS: GREATER THAN 10 KM + CLD: OVC012 + TMP: 9 + QNH: 1030

 

[Mr_Gimlet]

I am not sure they have actually closed the airport. In bound (non QF) international flights still seem to be listed as on their way. Whether they divert or not remains to be seen.

Yep, other carriers are still running - I am on CX at midnight and we're still down as going.

 

[straitman]

I am not sure they have actually closed the airport. In bound (non QF) international flights still seem to be listed as on their way. Whether they divert or not remains to be seen.

I agree.

The METAR, TAF and NOTAMs for YMML do not mention a closure.

METAR
TTF SPECI YMML 121000Z 17010KT 9999 BKN012 11/09 Q1030 RMK RF00.0/000.2 NOSIG

TAF
TAF AMD YMML 120921Z 1209/1312 18008KT 8000 BKN012 BECMG 1301/1303 15010KT 9999 SCT020 SCT035 BECMG 1309/1311 VRB05KT 8000 HAZE FEW010 PROB30 1210/1302 0500 FOG RMK T 10 09 09 08 Q 1030 1029 1029 1028

ATIS
ATIS YMML R 120926 APCH: EXPECT INSTRUMENT APPROACH RWY: 16 FOR ARRS. RWY 27 FOR DEPS OPR INFO: RAPID EXIT TWY G NOT AVBL WIND: 170/10. MAX DW 3 KTS RWY 27 VIS: GREATER THAN 10 KM + CLD: OVC012 + TMP: 9 + QNH: 1030

I have not published all the NOTAMs as there are too many but they can be found here. Melbourne Airport.

 

[mannej]

DJ and TT have cancelled flights because MEL is closed. TT normally keeps all aircraft at MEL overnight, and now can't get any in or out. At this stage, i understand that DJ have only cancelled flights in/out of Melbourne after 6pm. According to the DJ website, the Hobart to Sydney flight still left at 5:34pm.

I didn't say that because another airline chooses to fly it makes it safe. I said that there was no incident with the flights that have operated so far, therefore it was safe to operate those flights. I was looking at it retrospectively.

And again, CASA would ground all flights, rather than give them the option of adjusting altitude, if they believed that there was a risk.

There is always a risk. QF believed the risk was unacceptable so so be it.
In terms of risk management QF took the safest option. Retrospectively or not, just because there was no incidents does not make it entirely safe.


Sent from my iPhone using Aust Freq Fly app

 

[markis10]

The NZ flights are taking some interesting tracks, there are two currently tracking over SYD to/from MEL. MEL is still open!

 

[LiamR]

Update from @QantasMedia Twitter:

Melb, Tas, Wellington, Queenstown, Christchurch flights cancelled until 10am 13 June. Auckland TBC. Check qantas.com for latest updates

Looks like the Monday morning rush is not happening. Going to be a hell of a backlog of pax returning from a long weekend break.

Jetstar are still selling tickets for the 0710 & 0900 flights MEL-SYD for tommorow. Qantas has no flights for sale until 1500. Virgin is showing no tickets available at all tommorow for SYD/MEL

 

[Triamks]

I'm scheduled to fly to Melbourne from Brisbane tomorrow to see the Tutankhamen Exhibition with three others. We're all waiting for news :-|. The news report didn't paint a very good picture but at the moment the Qantas website is still showing us as scheduled.