What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[JohnK]

Deutsche Bank Australia predicting the aussie might go into 50c range.

I didn't think it was going to go this low. Now that it has gone this low I believe it will go into the 40c range.

Makes no sense but the world is spiralling out of control.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Could this mean more foreign buyers will buy property here (as it becomes cheaper for them) and the prices will go up even more???

Of course it will. My main legal man I use is currently in Guangzhou opening their new office to service the Chinese in that city with investments into Australian residential market - they currently have offices in Beijing and Shanghai operation last 3 years - demand so great they are opening 5 more offices dedicated solely to this purpose. In his words the Chinese are only starting to get their heads around the 30% off sales opportunities that Australian real estate is now offering.

 

[moa999]

I suspect the Chinese flood will be drying up given losses in the stock market.

Also any investors into Australia in recent years have lost money (in local dollar terms) due to the currency. Due to the peg, much better for Chinese to invest in USD assets

 

[Cruiser Elite]

A couple points on that - far smaller % of Chinese population have any exposure to stock market as compared to developed western countries such as Australia - and indeed many investors flooding out of stock market as they just do not understand it at all - in their minds there money is just disappearing into thin air whereas bricks and mortar investments they can at least see and touch. This info coming direct from those who are operating the ongoing businesses marrying Chinese investors to Australian real estate - they keep flooding in the doors in BJ and SH - many also trading in their Chinese real estate for foreign real estate as they too think the Chinese property market is way too over heated - this flood will not be stopping.

 

[drron]

Unless of course the Chinese government bring back currency controls and/or both the sharemarket and Chinese property both crash drying up the readies of those wanting to buy in Australia.
And of course if the government does succeed in stamping out corruption.Doubt there is a big chance of that though.

 

[Dr Ralph]

Predication: December 2015, $.60

Still looking good

 

[Cruiser Elite]

drron the Chinese Govt ALWAYS have currency controls - haven't you heard the Yanks squealing about the recent devaluations of the Yuan by the Chinese Govt?

Indeed the new leader Xi Jinping really has done an outstanding job of cutting corruption in Govt ranks to this point in time - amazing the effects it is having. When we were in Bordeaux a number of Chateaus were lamenting the nose dive in the sales of their premium wines to China and they all categorically stated it was due solely to crack down on corruption of Govt officials - they are no longer allowed to accept any gifts and Bordeaux reds were one of the major items so readily gifted.

Who knows where the Chinese economy will head - it certainly aint gonna collapse to nothing - 20+ years of 7+ growth now means it is a goliath of an economy - and the Govt has been so clever with their investment in infrastructure they are certainly poised to keep growing. Economists worry they cannot continue with +7% growth rates - just look how their GDP has grown over the years:

[TABLE="width: 292"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]GDP Rmb billion at current prices
[/TD]
[TD]GDP per head Rmb
[/TD]
[TD]Real annual GDP growth rate (%)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1952
[/TD]
[TD]67.9
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1953
[/TD]
[TD]82.4
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]15.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1954
[/TD]
[TD]85.9
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]4.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1955
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]6.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1956
[/TD]
[TD]102.8
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]15.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1957
[/TD]
[TD]106.8
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]5.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1958
[/TD]
[TD]130.7
[/TD]
[TD]200
[/TD]
[TD]21.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1959
[/TD]
[TD]143.9
[/TD]
[TD]216
[/TD]
[TD]8.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1960
[/TD]
[TD]145.7
[/TD]
[TD]218
[/TD]
[TD]-0.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1961
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]185
[/TD]
[TD]-27.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1962
[/TD]
[TD]114.9
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]-5.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1963
[/TD]
[TD]123.3
[/TD]
[TD]181
[/TD]
[TD]10.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1964
[/TD]
[TD]145.4
[/TD]
[TD]208
[/TD]
[TD]18.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1965
[/TD]
[TD]171.6
[/TD]
[TD]240
[/TD]
[TD]17.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1966
[/TD]
[TD]186.8
[/TD]
[TD]254
[/TD]
[TD]10.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1967
[/TD]
[TD]177.4
[/TD]
[TD]235
[/TD]
[TD]-5.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1968
[/TD]
[TD]172.3
[/TD]
[TD]222
[/TD]
[TD]-4.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1969
[/TD]
[TD]193.8
[/TD]
[TD]243
[/TD]
[TD]16.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1970
[/TD]
[TD]225.3
[/TD]
[TD]275
[/TD]
[TD]19.40
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1971
[/TD]
[TD]242.6
[/TD]
[TD]288
[/TD]
[TD]7.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1972
[/TD]
[TD]251.8
[/TD]
[TD]292
[/TD]
[TD]3.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1973
[/TD]
[TD]272.1
[/TD]
[TD]309
[/TD]
[TD]7.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1974
[/TD]
[TD]279
[/TD]
[TD]310
[/TD]
[TD]2.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1975
[/TD]
[TD]299.7
[/TD]
[TD]327
[/TD]
[TD]8.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1976
[/TD]
[TD]294.4
[/TD]
[TD]316
[/TD]
[TD]-1.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1977
[/TD]
[TD]320.2
[/TD]
[TD]339
[/TD]
[TD]7.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1978
[/TD]
[TD]364.5
[/TD]
[TD]381
[/TD]
[TD]11.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1979
[/TD]
[TD]406.3
[/TD]
[TD]419
[/TD]
[TD]7.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1980
[/TD]
[TD]454.6
[/TD]
[TD]463
[/TD]
[TD]7.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1981
[/TD]
[TD]489.2
[/TD]
[TD]492
[/TD]
[TD]5.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1982
[/TD]
[TD]532.3
[/TD]
[TD]528
[/TD]
[TD]9.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1983
[/TD]
[TD]596.3
[/TD]
[TD]583
[/TD]
[TD]10.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1984
[/TD]
[TD]720.8
[/TD]
[TD]695
[/TD]
[TD]15.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1985
[/TD]
[TD]901.6
[/TD]
[TD]858
[/TD]
[TD]13.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1986
[/TD]
[TD]1,027.50
[/TD]
[TD]963
[/TD]
[TD]8.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1987
[/TD]
[TD]1,205.90
[/TD]
[TD]1,112
[/TD]
[TD]11.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1988
[/TD]
[TD]1,504.30
[/TD]
[TD]1,366
[/TD]
[TD]11.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1989
[/TD]
[TD]1,699.20
[/TD]
[TD]1,519
[/TD]
[TD]4.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1990
[/TD]
[TD]1,866.80
[/TD]
[TD]1,644
[/TD]
[TD]3.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1991
[/TD]
[TD]2,178.20
[/TD]
[TD]1,893
[/TD]
[TD]9.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1992
[/TD]
[TD]2,692.40
[/TD]
[TD]2,311
[/TD]
[TD]14.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1993
[/TD]
[TD]3,533.40
[/TD]
[TD]2,998
[/TD]
[TD]13.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1994
[/TD]
[TD]4,819.80
[/TD]
[TD]4,044
[/TD]
[TD]12.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1995
[/TD]
[TD]6,079.40
[/TD]
[TD]5,046
[/TD]
[TD]10.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1996
[/TD]
[TD]7,117.70
[/TD]
[TD]5,846
[/TD]
[TD]9.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1997
[/TD]
[TD]7,897.30
[/TD]
[TD]6,420
[/TD]
[TD]8.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1998
[/TD]
[TD]8,440.20
[/TD]
[TD]6,796
[/TD]
[TD]7.80
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1999
[/TD]
[TD]8,967.70
[/TD]
[TD]7,159
[/TD]
[TD]7.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2000
[/TD]
[TD]9,921.50
[/TD]
[TD]7,858
[/TD]
[TD]8.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2001
[/TD]
[TD]10,965.50
[/TD]
[TD]8,622
[/TD]
[TD]8.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2002
[/TD]
[TD]12,033.30
[/TD]
[TD]9,398
[/TD]
[TD]9.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2003
[/TD]
[TD]13,582.30
[/TD]
[TD]10,542
[/TD]
[TD]10.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2004
[/TD]
[TD]15,987.80
[/TD]
[TD]12,336
[/TD]
[TD]10.10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2005
[/TD]
[TD]18,493.70
[/TD]
[TD]14,185
[/TD]
[TD]11.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006
[/TD]
[TD]21,631.40
[/TD]
[TD]16,500
[/TD]
[TD]12.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007
[/TD]
[TD]26,581.00
[/TD]
[TD]20,169
[/TD]
[TD]14.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008
[/TD]
[TD]31,404.50
[/TD]
[TD]23,708
[/TD]
[TD]9.60
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009
[/TD]
[TD]34,090.30
[/TD]
[TD]25,608
[/TD]
[TD]9.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010
[/TD]
[TD]40,151.30
[/TD]
[TD]30,015
[/TD]
[TD]10.40
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011
[/TD]
[TD]47,310.40
[/TD]
[TD]35,198
[/TD]
[TD]9.30
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012
[/TD]
[TD]51.947.0
[/TD]
[TD]38,459
[/TD]
[TD]7.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013
[/TD]
[TD]56,884.50
[/TD]
[TD]41,908
[/TD]
[TD]7.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014
[/TD]
[TD]63,600.00
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]7.40
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

They are going to be a powerhouse for many years to come. From memory they currently have 3.5Tr USD in foreign reserves and 1.4Tr USD net debt - they are poised to be able to drive the economy in any direction they desire - the stock market pales in significance to the overall economy - that is where their priorities will be directed. Chinese were simply clamouring into the stock market at it was just bulleting up - they saw this as guarantee to make money - Blind Freddy and indeed everyone in here clearly understands that type of activity is always going to end in tears.

This is certainly worth a read: Chinese Foreign Investment

 

[drron]

By currency controls I meant individuals exporting their cash.That has been eased in recent years.
And no I dont think the Chinese economy is going to collapse and they will become the world's largest economy.However no economy continually rises.There are always corrections and the Chinese probably are due for one.
I dont subscibe to the view that the Chinese government are able to drive their economy where they want it to be.No central banker or government has ever been able to do that indefinitely.The Chinese have shown this inability recently with ill timed and unsuccessful attempts to manipulate the stock market and more recently arresting financial journalists and brokers for talking down the market.
The stock market was and probably still is in bubble territory and they couldn't control it.The housing market is in bubble territory and they wont be able to stop the process when the bubble tries to deflate.
On top of all that China's foreign reserves have gone into reverse.Declining by $US 40 billion a month recently.
It's total debt has risen from $US 1 trillion in 2000 to $US 25 trillion now.

 

[Foreigner]

I didn't think it was going to go this low. Now that it has gone this low I believe it will go into the 40c range.

Makes no sense but the world is spiralling out of control.

Highly unlikely to get that low but right now the level is .6983.

 

[quokka77]

70c. Of course that's around the historic average, still those days of parity were nice while they lasted. Back to 3 to 4* accommodation, from our previous 4 to 5* (first world problems). Canada and NZ are becoming comparatively more affordable.

 

[amaroo]

Indeed. Nothing special...

 

[cove]

I remember being in Chicago with a 50 cent dollar and the conference room rate was $280 U.S. Plus tax. If history repeats itself it will ground a lot of flyers out of Australia to USA.

 

[amaroo]

I remember being in Chicago with a 50 cent dollar and the conference room rate was $280 U.S. Plus tax. If history repeats itself it will ground a lot of flyers out of Australia to USA.

LOL they'll all come back and say how good is QF...

 

[drsmithy]

It dropped under $0.50 during the tech wreck, and we had a VASTLY stronger and more diverse economy then.

 

[moa999]

It dropped under $0.50 during the tech wreck, and we had a VASTLY stronger and more diverse economy then.

Albeit we have printed nowhere near the amount of $s that the US has over intervening years.

There does need to be done relationship to money supply

 

[JohnK]

Highly unlikely to get that low but right now the level is .6983.

I thought it was highly unlikely to reach below USD0.70 but proved me wrong.

Experts are only experts when they guess right.

 

[quokka77]

Testing 69 cents.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/uvaskxgtikb79vd/Screenshot_2015-09-05-09-38-07.png?dl=0

 

[Flashback]

That's because I just arrived. Fortunately I'm spending Pound Stirling.

 

[Foreigner]

Wish i had hoarded USD when the Aussie was riding above par.

 

[JohnM]

Wish i had hoarded USD when the Aussie was riding above par.

Well, don't we all? - but that's just like saying I wish I'd bought my house in 1951...