What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Boca68]

50% of Australians get some money from the Government so that will be hard to fix.
We keep borrowing so far because we can.

I saw the article and I believe its actually 44%. A large majority who are public servants, Defence force personnel, Police etc... Its not just people whose only income is welfare.

I know several commentators have tried to sensationlise the figures for other uses. (appears to have worked). And yes, I believe too many people are on welfare, but the figure of 44%(or 50), should be used with caution.

 

[JohnK]

Except having regulators set interest rates is not capitalism but a managed economy.
Would be OK if the managers knew what they are doing but I seriously doubt it.The world's economies are going to have a very hard time at some point in the future.Might not happen for another 10 years but happen it will.

I am certain we are going to have a fall. 2008 was just a precursor. Not sure how easily we will get out of it. Need to somehow abolish corporate greed as that is one of our biggest problems we face today.

 

[drsmithy]

Except having regulators set interest rates is not capitalism but a managed economy.

All economies are managed. By laws. That's why someone can't come along with a bigger stick and take your stuff, and why if someone rips you off you can take them to court.

Government controlling the money supply and foreign capital flows is just doing its job. That these sorts of critical responsibilities have been outsourced to psychopathic private industry for the last few decades is why the world is in the trouble it is.

Businesses should be beholden to the people, not vice versa.

 

[Bolthead]

I am certain we are going to have a fall. 2008 was just a precursor. Not sure how easily we will get out of it. Need to somehow abolish corporate greed as that is one of our biggest problems we face today.

I always thought greed was good...

[video=youtube;VVxYOQS6ggk]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk[/video]

 

[drsmithy]

You'll get a chance to remedy that Johnny on July 2 - surely a huge problem such as this would be front and square in any election campaign would it not?

Both major parties are one hundred percent in favour selling out the country. It's the globalist way. You'll be lucky to even see anyone ask a question about whether we should attempt to control foreign financial interests buying into the country, let alone whether doing so is a good or bad thing.

 

[Isochronous]

Australia is now an economic backwater and a key reason why I became an expat. I have no desire to repay a monstrous debt I didn't incur or having the fruits of my labour confiscated to subsidise the whiny, entitled, indolent leeches who prefer to take their living from others and remain bitter and jealous instead of working to improve themselves or provide for themselves. Life is too short to spend one's working life being mugged by ferals via the ATO and Centrelink.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Businesses should be beholden to the people, not vice versa.

Didn't that Karl dude hold similar thoughts like a fair ways back? That concept hasn't fared all that well through the ages has it?

 

[drsmithy]

Didn't that Karl dude hold similar thoughts like a fair ways back? That concept hasn't fared all that well through the ages has it?

Maybe not if you're in the too-much-is-never-enough 0.1%.

But everyone else has been better off whenever the wealthy and powerful have been kept on a short leash held by a democratic government.

 

[drsmithy]

Australia is now an economic backwater and a key reason why I became an expat. I have no desire to repay a monstrous debt I didn't incur or having the fruits of my labour confiscated to subsidise the whiny, entitled, indolent leeches who prefer to take their living from others and remain bitter and jealous instead of working to improve themselves or provide for themselves. Life is too short to spend one's working life being mugged by ferals via the ATO and Centrelink.

LOL. The machine has done its work well.

Dole bludgers are practically a rounding error in the budget

 

[Cruiser Elite]

But everyone else has been better off whenever the wealthy and powerful have been kept on a short leash held by a democratic government.

I would ask you to quote examples but that would be going way OT.

 

[Pushka]

I saw the article and I believe its actually 44%. A large majority who are public servants, Defence force personnel, Police etc... Its not just people whose only income is welfare.

I know several commentators have tried to sensationlise the figures for other uses. (appears to have worked). And yes, I believe too many people are on welfare, but the figure of 44%(or 50), should be used with caution.

We received a breakdown with our Tax returns, and the aged pension seemed to take a fair chunk. Which is why we are encouraged to put money into super and be self sufficient. Share market failure over the last few years put a dent in actual savings, let alone the issue of no gains.

 

[whatmeworry]

With the Aussie surging, RBA tipped to cut rates, however RBA governor warning low rates are harming retirees. Can't have it both ways.

Australian dollar over 78 US cents raises rate cut prospects

The RBA next meets on May 3, coinciding with the federal budget which has been brought forward by a week.
While there is little chance of a rate cut then, many economists are tipping a rate cut to 1.75 percent by the end of the year.
A big factor is the surging Australian dollar, which hit a high of 78.27 US cents early this morning as commodity currencies recover.

The Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has warned that today's world of ultra-low interest rates is putting increasing pressure on returns for superannuation funds.
Mr Stevens said record low interest rates are "a big problem" for savers and that many stand to be "disappointed" about the direction of their retirement nest eggs.

www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-20/glenn-stevens-low-rates-come-at-high-cost-to-retirees/7340822

 

[Pushka]

With the Aussie surging, RBA tipped to cut rates, however RBA governor warning low rates are harming retirees. Can't have it both ways.

www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-20/glenn-stevens-low-rates-come-at-high-cost-to-retirees/7340822

No cough Sherlock! Who would have thought that lowering interest rates would have impacted on retirees savings. Bit late now for the lightbulb moment!

 

[get me outta here]

Yeah, not only those already retired, but those preparing and thinking about it and what income they may have to live on. That's those that don't have big investments and multiple properties that is.

With the Aussie surging, RBA tipped to cut rates, however RBA governor warning low rates are harming retirees. Can't have it both ways.





www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-20/glenn-stevens-low-rates-come-at-high-cost-to-retirees/7340822

 

[JohnK]

No cough Sherlock! Who would have thought that lowering interest rates would have impacted on retirees savings. Bit late now for the lightbulb moment!

It's not too late. Can't believe they are contemplating further interest rate cuts. Raise interest rates now to cater for ageing population.

And if you can't afford a loan at 11%+ then don't over commit. Start off small instead of jumping straight into a home at $500,000+.

 

[drron]

All economies are managed. By laws. That's why someone can't come along with a bigger stick and take your stuff, and why if someone rips you off you can take them to court.

Government controlling the money supply and foreign capital flows is just doing its job. That these sorts of critical responsibilities have been outsourced to psychopathic private industry for the last few decades is why the world is in the trouble it is.

Businesses should be beholden to the people, not vice versa.

So when did the Reserve Bank get outsourced to psychopathic private industry?
Silly me thought it was still very much the property of psychopathic government enterprise.

 

[marki]

Aussie still struggling to get above .68 euro though

Noticed that 0.6869 at the mo

 

[SponsorSFC]

Above 0.69 now

 

[RAM]

I don't claim to know the timing, but the outcome is inevitable.

"Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong"

John Spalvins - shorted the Aust Equity market from mid-1985 until March 1987 - lost everything he had made through his career to that point and then declared he'd give up on calling the market and just stick to deal making instead.

Person I know well, lost over $800m shorting US (mega mansion) home builders and exposed banks. Started shorting as the bubble would burst sooner rather than later - in Jan 2002. Called it quits in Feb 2007.

4 Rules of bubbles:

1. Bubbles always last longer than you expect.
2. Bubbles always get much more inflated than you expect.
3. Bubbles NEVER end when you expect.
4. Bubbles do end but often when most 'early birds' have gone broke calling/timing the peak.

With the Pacific Peso - if you hold virtually any position for long enough (since Dec 1985) and have deep enough pockets - you could have made a profit on it numerous times. The trouble is that the pain (accumulated losses) cause people to cut out.

Time frames are what determine the outcome.

 

[RAM]

It's not too late. Can't believe they are contemplating further interest rate cuts. Raise interest rates now to cater for ageing population.

And if you can't afford a loan at 11%+ then don't over commit. Start off small instead of jumping straight into a home at $500,000+.

Conventional wisdom is more often than not wrong.

Remember:

• The Japan century?
• "Germany and Japan are the only economies that can spend their way out of their slow-down."
• The value of Greater Tokyo's property is worth more than the continental US property. (Well sold Paul Keating!)
• "No post-war economy will ever see negative interest rates - central bankers are too experienced and have heeded the errors of the past."
• The NAFTA signing will lead to a massive rebirth in Australian Manufacturing.
• Australian interest rates will never fall into single digits again due to our persistent Current Account Deficit.
• The Commonwealth Govt can never generate a multi-year surplus (oft-repeated statement from 1980s through to mid 1990s).
• State Govts are better at judging which companies in their states will become world beaters than the stock market (prelude to all State Banks 'directing lending; and subsequently being bailed out),
• Prime office property never falls in value (head of Aust's then largest commercial RE group) in Australia, never has and never will (unfortunately head of fund mgmt operation he was presenting to had started life in the early 60s as a property analyst and had kept his charts since then...)
• "The oil price has permanently shifted to above USD 100 a barrel." - so many international strategists and stock brokers

Japan went to ZIRP and effectively -ve interest rates nearly two decades before the next major economy. The lessons on the adverse impact (pushing on a piece of string) were there for all to see. Zombie companies kept alive as the banks could not afford to bankrupt them as the banks did not have the capital to cover the losses - so the loans keep growing and growing.
Japan - with the world's highest savings rate saw Japan Inc decide to eliminate the income for households from their savings at the very time that the demographics were tipping a huge increase in the ratio of retired to workers. The ratio of children to workers ALSO fell to around 1/3rd the level of 25 years earlier.
So, the global ponzi scheme continues until finally someone declares the 'central bankers have no clothes.'

Remember the rules for bubbles!