What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[andye]

I know but !!!! A big butt is whether it's staying at this level or falling more !!

I like it...and I cannot lie

 

[PLANT]

It's going down.... I'm calling it..... Ore they have too much.... Milk powder they are replicating..... Bitcoin guy has been revealed..... What more can we offer to bring the dollar up? I suppose a house seems to go up in value, oh wait we taxed the international buyers more on that.... I got it.... with global warming we have..... The Sun's ray is more intense down here..... No ozone layer and all that!

 

[cove]

The market must have heard we are heading off next week. The AUD plunged last night while we were sleeping. Nothing we have not seen and done before....it just makes planning a little bit more difficult with a US dollar conversion in the 0.74 range.

 

[Foreigner]

The outlook for AUD is bearish according to some analysts. Those flying in to Aus will be rubbing their hands with delight.

 

[Boca68]

I know but !!!! A big butt is whether it's staying at this level or falling more !!

And I like big butts and I cannot lie!

Sorry, couldn't resist

Back on topic, reading already economists are predicitng another 0.25 cut next month..... lower is my guess.

 

[marki]

Look at US dollar debt U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

I can't read numbers so long

And I like big butts and I cannot lie!

Sorry, couldn't resist

Back on topic, reading already economists are predicitng another 0.25 cut next month..... lower is my guess.

 

[Bolthead]

Look at US dollar debt U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

I can't read numbers so long

I got a headache just trying to comprehend that mess...

 

[Awesom Andy]

The outlook for AUD is bearish according to some analysts. Those flying in to Aus will be rubbing their hands with delight.

Let's see if there are enough rumours to push it out of the upwards channel (vs USD) that started back in January. A quick glance at the chart suggests it's not far from that point.

 

[marki]

Let's see if there are enough rumours to push it out of the upwards channel (vs USD) that started back in January. A quick glance at the chart suggests it's not far from that point.

Debt per citizen (US citizen) is almost 60K and per tax payer 161K!! everyone is in Debt wow

 

[marki]

Also add interest to this debt and it becomes 200K and 794K respectively.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

No concern in Yankee Land I would have thought - the Donald will get Mexico to pay off the debt - or the Chinese - or ..........................

 

[Doctore1003]

I'm not sure which is higher - the level of debt or the level of over-obsession about it. Meanwhile, "nobody understands debt": http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/opinion/paul-krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?_r=0

 

[SponsorSFC]

With the rate cute on the horizon I managed to prepay a fair few fixed USD expenses ahead of our December/January trip at about $0.76 so pretty happy with that.

As travel isn't until December but I had budgeted on $0.70 so was happy to take the extra "profit" to be reinvested into a few extra coughtails at Conrad Rangali.

I can see it settling closer to $0.70 over the next few months but your guess is as good as mine.

 

[Doctore1003]

The RBA has certainly provided a headwind against a further AUD rise but I think the direction of the USD (broadly) and commodities are more important.



The USD staged an impressive reversal higher against all currencies overnight. While this may look bullish for the USD, similar reversals in the past have often failed:
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/us-dollar-reversals-show-a-mixed-record

 

[whatmeworry]

No concern in Yankee Land I would have thought - the Donald will get Mexico to pay off the debt - or the Chinese - or ..........................

Considering how many failed businesses the Donald has had, I am sure he knows all about chapter eleven...

 

[Boca68]

No concern in Yankee Land I would have thought - the Donald will get Mexico to pay off the debt - or the Chinese - or ..........................

If 'The Donald' somehow manages to elected, I think the USD will head south big time! I'd invest in MXN as it'll be propped up by the sudden rise in Chinese investment in the construction industry. (Read fence building)

Which may be a good thing for travel to the US, but I'd probably boycott the place if that clown was in charge. Cancun looks good then.

 

[drron]

I'm not sure which is higher - the level of debt or the level of over-obsession about it. Meanwhile, "nobody understands debt": http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/opinion/paul-krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?_r=0

Which proves Paul Krugman doesn't understand debt.
Japan had their GFC 26 years ago.They have continually increased there debt,lowered interest rates and had many stimulus packages AKA spending spress and what have they got?An extended period of deflation which is great for us-in 1984 we couldn't afford to eat in any decent restaurant even though we were getting ~ 300 yen to the AUD.Now no problem with the AUD at ~ 80 yen.Has the economy recovered?Hell no.Virtually no growth and the Nikkei has never come close to the 1989 highs.

Another thing re debt.No one has ever gone bankrupt with no debt.

 

[hummel]

Which times? Where we prop up private enterprise? Time to think of retirees. The corporates need to lighten the fat salaries and prepare for smaller profits.

The person earning $1,000,000+ a year doesn't need help in retirement but the person earning $70,000 a year needs all the help they can get including higher interest rates not be encouraged to spend their savings.

Dropping interest rates is essentially a sign of a weak economy is it not? Therefore less confidence in the economy of the nation.

I like the dollar staying around the .75c mark as I'm in the game of importing these days not manufacturing.

FWIW I'm in that ~70k zone and life could be a lot worse...

 

[Doctore1003]

Which proves Paul Krugman doesn't understand debt.
Japan had their GFC 26 years ago.They have continually increased there debt,lowered interest rates and had many stimulus packages AKA spending spress and what have they got?An extended period of deflation which is great for us-in 1984 we couldn't afford to eat in any decent restaurant even though we were getting ~ 300 yen to the AUD.Now no problem with the AUD at ~ 80 yen.Has the economy recovered?Hell no.Virtually no growth and the Nikkei has never come close to the 1989 highs.

Another thing re debt.No one has ever gone bankrupt with no debt.

Japan is an extreme example to use in any argument about debt and even Keynesians like Krugman agree it's a problem. But even in the case of Japan, it's demography not debt that's been the biggest challenge. Japan's working-age population has been shrinking since the late 1990s and when you correct for that, Japan’s performance doesn’t look nearly as bad as a raw growth-rate comparison suggests. Japan is currently at full employment.

Meanwhile, Krugman and other Keynesians have been right about pretty much everything since the financial crisis started - but sadly, for many people, ideology is more important than evidence in these debates.

 

[drron]

And of course Japan's population peaked in 2011 and has since declined.It's economic problems began late 1989 so blaming demography is rather a long bow.
And it is not ideology that drives my opinion but reading widely.There are quite a few economists and economic writers that would disagree with you about Krugman getting things right since the GFC.Add to that the Keynesians were pretty much advocating similar policies before the GFC and really didn't see it coming.

And if we or the US had the same employment policies as Japan we would have full employment too.It is a cultural thing.