What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[cove]

It's ok kpc sunlight and oxygen are still free so we can manage. The currency is .95 so the decline may go the other way if China reports some growth that is better than the market is expecting. A time machine would be handy!

 

[Edge]

I still believe the fundamentals exist that points to the aussie being $1.00 - $1.10 US in the medium term. There's so much volatility and pack mentality in this post-GFC era that corrections can hit HARD. It's great for traders, just frustrating if it ties in with people's overseas vacations.

China is "only" growing at 7% these days. But that's an economy that's already 60% bigger than it was back in 2007!

For myself, lower interest rates make a huge difference so I'm happy for them to drop again even if it sends the AUD down to $0.90

 

[Limewood]

Being an importer who pays in USD I can handle 90c to USD.

 

[vetrade]

Being an importer who pays in USD I can handle 90c to USD.

What ? You like paying more ?

 

[Alanslegal]

I would expect car prices to react slowly.... prices have not fallen anywhere near as much as they should as the currency went up.

Cheers, I spent some time researching on the car I want and it appears a new new model is due in ~12 months time, so I guess I will be sitting tight for a bit now.

 

[Limewood]

What ? You like paying more ?

Well considering prices were based on 75c to $1 USD, done very well thank you, customers happy no price increase for past couple years, just steady as she goes.

 

[markis10]

What ? You like paying more ?

If you base your margin on a % of selling price and it goes up, without decreasing demand, your making more money!

 

[benhadi]

Cheers, I spent some time researching on the car I want and it appears a new new model is due in ~12 months time, so I guess I will be sitting tight for a bit now.

Would this be the W205?

 

[vetrade]

If you base your margin on a % of selling price and it goes up, without decreasing demand, your making more money!

I don't disagree with that Markis but there is the expectation that if prices rise demand will tend to fall - and sales generally reflect demand. Of course you make the point that, if demand for a particular product is not sensitive to price, sales may be unaffected. Having said that, my original comment was not intended to open up a discussion on the nuances of economics (which I have always found to be far too "fluid" for my liking because its dependence on far too many "ifs" and "buts" seems to make the whole exercise essentially pointless IMO) - in my simplistic way I was merely alluding to the fact that if Limewood paid the same amount of $USD for the same product last month and today, then he would have had to pay more in $AUD today than he would have last month - which, prior to him adding the detail that he negotiated his price based on a .75 AUD : $1USD ER, would have seemed little reason for him to be pleased about.

 

[Limewood]

My exchange rate is not fixed, retail prices not based on profit margin its what market can stand, profit on landed price is huge.

 

[Mogul]

I would expect car prices to react slowly.... prices have not fallen anywhere near as much as they should as the currency went up.

Just because the dollar goes up doesn't mean a reduction in the landed price of imports. We import a lot of stuff from China and with each order there is a small price increase over the previous order. What the increase in the dollar over the last couple of years has meant, is that prices have remained stable and in some cases fallen slightly.

I belive that once the dollar falls into 80c territory expect prices of imported goods to go up.

 

[Melburnian1]

If our interest rates keep declining, that's surely one less reason to hold the Aussie dollar. Our consumer confidence may not be too bad according to surveys, but when I look around (not just in Vic) there are many empty shops. Small businessmen to whom I talk are mostly moaning about the state of consumers' behaviour. I don't know if they're just having a grizzle or if times really are tough, but I'm inclined towards the latter view.

 

[drron]

Agree Melburnian.Everywhere I go around regional Australia there are many small business closures.Each time I return more are gone.Bankruptcies are at their highest rate since 2008 and the GFC.The official figures on the economy are not telling us the whole story.

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

I just hope and pray that you are wrong!!

As long as you don't put money on it you will be right....NOT

 

[Flashback]

Agree Melburnian.Everywhere I go around regional Australia there are many small business closures.Each time I return more are gone.Bankruptcies are at their highest rate since 2008 and the GFC.The official figures on the economy are not telling us the whole story.

Online retail killing a lot of physical retail...

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

Online retail killing a lot of physical retail...

No question about that....our overhead costs are simply too high in this country and people don't realise it and are living in a fools paradise waiting for the chooks to come home to roost !

On one hand they want cheap stuff but don't want to pay someone else to maintain our standard of living

 

[Yoz]

I belive that once the dollar falls into 80c territory expect prices of imported goods to go up.

As a small online importer and retailer we would raise our prices well before 80c.

We work on small margins so I think realistically we would be looking at raising prices before the dollar even reaches 90c.

 

[blackcat20]

As a small online importer and retailer we would raise our prices well before 80c.

We work on small margins so I think realistically we would be looking at raising prices before the dollar even reaches 90c.

Fortuanlty my wholesale price is locked in for a few months yet. After that I imagine it will start to rise, and I'll probably increase my price gradually. At the moment I'm swallowing some of the most recent increase in order to gain/keep customers.

 

[Yoz]

Fortuanlty my wholesale price is locked in for a few months yet. After that I imagine it will start to rise, and I'll probably increase my price gradually. At the moment I'm swallowing some of the most recent increase in order to gain/keep customers.

If I were an importer and wholesaler I would probably be much more reflective of the currency than an importer and retailer.

Sadly, your average customer is not going to be as understanding of currency fluctuations than your average businessperson/retailer

My business only started in ~2011 but I've still been working import viability calculations off ~90c to give a little bit of leeway. However, given the minimal profit last month if the dollar keeps dropping I'm going to be the owner of a small not-for-profit

 

[MEL_Traveller]

No question about that....our overhead costs are simply too high in this country and people don't realise it and are living in a fools paradise waiting for the chooks to come home to roost !

On one hand they want cheap stuff but don't want to pay someone else to maintain our standard of living

i know this is slightly OT but some shop owners need to move with the times instead of complaining. the local shops in my area complain about lack of customers... but every morning I pass by them on the way to work at 845am and they are closed. every evening I walk past them at 615pm and the are closed. these are shops selling things like business attire or homewares... things I would buy if only they were open! and I can't be the only one in that boat. so stop complaining... and meet the hours I need you to be open... otherwise I will go elsewhere (or on line). and if paying staff is an issue... get in there yourself!!! as owner!!! no worry about salary then.