What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[JohnK]

you don't use a card like Citi? I got 26.47 through their ATM in bangkok in October (the rate on xe .com was 26.68) Citi delivers well in this respect.

Never looked at the Citi card. I am hardly ever in Bangkok and not sure where to avoid the THB150 on each withdrawal or is that not charged on the Citi card as it is a debit card not credit card?

In both Chiang Mai and Pattaya I can get cash exchange 0.2 below the xe.com rate from a number of cash exchange booths.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Never looked at the Citi card. I am hardly ever in Bangkok and not sure where to avoid the THB150 on each withdrawal or is that not charged on the Citi card as it is a debit card not credit card?

In both Chiang Mai and Pattaya I can get cash exchange 0.2 below the xe.com rate from a number of cash exchange booths.

That's a good rate. Although a card like Citi works everywhere and may be useful for other transits/stopovers where exchange booths are not as generous.

Citi only has a couple ATMs in the whole of Bangkok. Not sure about the rest of thailand. So probably not all that practical.

 

[Cynicor]

Briefly OT-
3 Citi ATMs in BKK John K, one in Centara World Mall, on the level with every other bank, one opposite Terminal 21 mall.
And one I forget. All free for Citi debit holders, you should really get one.

 

[JohnK]

All free for Citi debit holders, you should really get one.

I need cash in Chiang Mai and Pattaya. Don't want to tie up my own money in an account if I cannot withdraw from any ATM and avoid THB150 fee?

One other option is to transfer AUD to Thai bank account. Some get good rates but not within 0.2 of xe.com so the only saving is not carrying cash.

 

[whatmeworry]

Deutsche Bank tipping the aussie dollar to hit 80c.

Australia's resurgent exports could push its currency to 80 US cents and even beyond, Deutsche Bank's chief economist Adam Boyton reckons.
The nation's shrinking current-account deficit, which has been driven by a surge in commodity prices, means Australia now only needs about a third of the capital it required a year ago to cover the shortfall, says Boyton. The relative appeal of the nation's bonds -- seen in the difference between Australian and US yields - suggests that capital will keep coming in. Any inflows surplus to the current-account's smaller requirements will put upward pressure on the currency, which has surged 6.5 per cent this year.

Australian dollar to crack 80 US cents: Deutsche Bank

 

[vetrade]

Harder than usual to work out what the media's agenda for today is..........
These are consecutive headlines in an email from the AFR this morning:

RBA holds rates, backs curbs
The RBA has held interest rates at a record low 1.5pc, with a mention of softer jobs data sending the dollar down.

Trade surplus smashes forecasts
The Aussie dollar jumped as Australia's trade balance rose...................

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

Harder than usual to work out what the media's agenda for today is..........
These are consecutive headlines in an email from the AFR this morning:

RBA holds rates, backs curbs
The RBA has held interest rates at a record low 1.5pc, with a mention of softer jobs data sending the dollar down.

Trade surplus smashes forecasts
The Aussie dollar jumped as Australia's trade balance rose...................

If not for the compression in yield differential between Australian and US Govt bonds, the AUD would have gone up like a rocket. The ten years are just 27bps, the lowest point since mid-2000, when the Aussie as at 48 cents!

In 2011, Australia lost 25mt of production owing to Cyclone Yasi. That resulted in a GDP shocker as net exports collapsed.

Coking coal exports are up 12% in volumes terms since 2011 so at 15mt of lost production (due to damage to rail lines in QLD) we’ll be looking at roughly half the damage of 2011 which is still big enough to threaten another negative print for GDP in Q2.

I still have no idea what's going to break the AUD. Maybe USA invasion of North Korea, maybe the loss of the AAA rating for the federal Govt, or maybe if The Front National wins the French elections the implosion of the Euro.

It's interesting that the main driver of the AUD has shifted from interest rate differentials with the USA to the terms of trade. The ToT is due to fall as it's very unlikely we'll have another surge in resource prices like we've had over the last 6 months. China is not going to make the same mistake twice.

 

[Mrmaxwell]

It's interesting that the main driver of the AUD has shifted from interest rate differentials with the USA to the terms of trade. The ToT is due to fall as it's very unlikely we'll have another surge in resource prices like we've had over the last 6 months. China is not going to make the same mistake twice.

Spot on.

The AUD is so tightly wound around commodity prices and any -ve news out of China it won't take much to wack it down, and quickly too.

IMO it should be sitting around 70 so no issues getting some FOREX now as there can be few ways to see it going to 80 and beyond (as always don't bet the house!)

 

[clifford]

Spot on. The AUD is so tightly wound around commodity prices and any -ve news out of China it won't take much to wack it down, and quickly too.

Looks like it's now on its way down. Starting to make things look a bit healthier.

 

[kpc]

The AUD is down, down against most major currencies

 

[cove]

It is like a Coles advertisement kpc. Base metals have been tanking. Iron ore has had no friends recently and it could get tough for our miners.

 

[I love to travel]

Starting to make buying miles eg AA, United and LM a lot less attractive

 

[cove]

The AFR is suggesting the $AUD could go lower. We are buying some cover just in case. It may not happen but the idea of not being covered could be a bit risky.
Overseas investors have been selling our bank and mining shares so it could happen.

 

[Radio8tiv]

The AFR is suggesting the $AUD could go lower. We are buying some cover just in case. It may not happen but the idea of not being covered could be a bit risky.
Overseas investors have been selling our bank and mining shares so it could happen.

market confidence in our banks are definitely down at the moment, after the budget announcement affecting the big 4 + MQG, then the S&P credit rating downgrade for their competition like BOQ and BEN, will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Cynicor]

Thanks cove. If you are buying it can only go up now!

 

[cove]

Yes the $AUD might rally but quite a bit of foreign money is being pulled out of our stock market this month.
Cynicor if I put a floor under our currency don't forget to thank me at the next social gathering in Perth.

 

[drron]

I'm also thinking like Cove.If I do jump in I will let you all know.With our combined experience the dollar should definitely rise then.

 

[cove]

Personally we are running with $USD at 0.76 and GB£ at 0.61 so I am not troubled. We did ok with buying in the good old days when the pound was 0.67 to our dollar but I don't think we will get back up there for quite a while. Never say never.

 

[JohnK]

I'm also thinking like Cove.If I do jump in I will let you all know.With our combined experience the dollar should definitely rise then.

Please do it sooner rather than later. I'm heading off to Thailand next week and early July. A favourable exchange will keep daughter happy.

 

[cove]

JohnK I will do what I can to help you of course. I thought 0.915 was fantastic on the USD but it went up around 1.10 after I bought. No one is a guru in the forex market.