What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

I have moved NBN centric posts to the NBN thread, please discuss on the dollar here and NBN there !
 
Just a few rambling thoughts.

Economics isn't an exact science despite what some economists think.Human nature will always be able to throw a spanner in the works.This is what makes it difficult to predict where the Aussie goes.

Mining-Australia is now a high cost place to mine.With coal we have gone from one of the lowest cost producers to one of the highest cost producers over the last few years.We have the second highest costs in mining gold.So we will be very sensitive to drops in commodity prices and/or demand.High cost mines generally close before high cost mines.It is true that BHP and Rio still have some of the lowest cost iron ore mines but profits could well drop.

When you take into account mining royalties Australian miners are not amongst the lowest taxed in the world.And minerals on land generally are owned by the State governments not the Commonwealth.So royalties actually go to the real owners.

As for tech companies Governments really have little track record for picking winners.Australia though is one of the leaders in innovation when our population size is taken into account-Not only Cochlear but Resmed,CSL but also many other products first developed in Australia but needing foreign capital for development.But both Government and private investors have often been too timid to finance such developments.

So we really need to bring down our costs but as others have said one of the major problems is overpriced real estate.If land values did fall though the political fall out will be enormous.
 
Judging from the posts, seems like AFF members all have well reasoned views on the direction of the dollar. Maybe we should have rolling voting system where by Friday each week people vote on what the dollar will be in a week's time. Close the voting on Friday and see how accurate this forum is by next Friday. If AFF members get it right in 3 consecutive weeks I'm opening up an FX trading account...
 
Jleno said:
If AFF members get it right in 3 consecutive weeks I'm opening up an FX trading account...
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Instead.. I will mark two identical circles on a piece of footpath (with overhanging beam) and count how many pidgeons cough into each circle. Surely got to be just as accurate as other methods!
 
Why trade when you can go to the casino and put it all on black?

There are a few people who know what they are doing, and chances are, it's not everyone who posts here.
 
leadman said:
What exports other than minerals and food. we just don't make anything any more. We don't even turn our minerals in metals. still think .85 to .88 is about right....
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We export Garden Sheds and the AUD is killing us at the moment. Saying this it has only stopped us from gaining new customers but our existing customers (predominately European) have stuck with us despite the fact that every conversation lately starts with the AUD. Our largest export customer is our UK customer and they had a big smile on their face the other day when I was talking with them on Skype, We believe the best level for our business is around 0.75.
 
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Well the currency is now sitting just under 0.96 so I am happy that our currency held is more than 6 cents in the money as we head towards our end of financial year. No real need to be a crystal ball gazer and we have a staff member taking long service leave with US dollars bought at 1.06 so he will find the US a bargain in most places.
 
serfty said:
This morning the Aussie has increased by a ratio of 3.5% against the greenback compared to the the low earlier this week of 93.3¢.
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Don't forget about the currency traders....big bags of money able to move a currency by almost one percent per day = potential for big profits over an extended period of time with favourable trades
 
Brisbane Flyer said:
Down to 85 cents in 6 months.
What goes up most come down...
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And the converse is true. Someone has to make money on currency fluctuations and "short selling" is a great way to make a living. In fact, stockmarket trading should be made part of the school curriculum, if for no other reason than to show that betting can be just as much fun on the stockmarket as on the football field.
 
I hate seeing this thread at the top of the "New Posts" list first thing in the morning!

.9299 grrrr...
 
yeah, not nice! fortunately my next trip is fully paid for already for hotels and tours but spending money is a little reduced. oh well
 
Aussie_flyer said:
yeah, not nice! fortunately my next trip is fully paid for already for hotels and tours but spending money is a little reduced. oh well
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Same. I'm not sure whether I should change some over now in case it goes lower, or wait and see if it creeps up a little.
 
cove said:
Don't look this morning if you have not bought your US dollars/Euros/Pounds for your trip.
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Wow to think I somehow lucked out buying something from Nordstrom last night on sale (50% off), plus 5% back with Nordstrom and got it before the dollar went down again.
 

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