What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[vetrade]

Good luck to anyone who thinks they can predict with any accuracy what the exchange rate will be in a week's time much less what it will be months from now. History shows that such predictions have just as abysmal a record as economists, climate change scientists and other fortune tellers. You only have to see how the sentiment of the market can change markedly from one day to the next on the basis of jobless rates, housing starts, sovereign debt or a hundred other issues to realise that if you get it right you were lucky and if you get it wrong you were unlucky. Simple as that.

The exchange rate only has a good probability of predictability on a 24 hour time scale. If you don't think so check out the charts. Further out than that the only reality is that it will likely have an upper and lower limit of 1.10 and .94 respectively over a 1 year time line and most of the time it will oscillate between 1.03 and 1.06. So if you are booking flights and our $ is below parity it might pay to hold off a bit because it probably won't be long before it goes up again. On the other hand if the rate is above $1.05 you probably won't do much better so bite the bullet.

Better still, if the exchange rate is important to you .....just don't go !!

 

[Foreigner]

Good points in para. 1 and 2, above.

 

[Origin]

Just got my old crystal ball out of the chicken shed, cleaned it up and its working again, it thinks the AUD will be strong against the greenback for most of this year, so as i have a trip in Aug with Mrs Lime to USA and not booked anything domestic yet and as an importer I'm happy about that (if true). In reality most financial experts are thinking the AUD will remain strong and as usual have its ups and downs but not by a lot.

Yes those HDMI cables must be looking quite cheap these days but I suppose it depends on the strength of the currency in place of purchase

Mainland USA this time or back to that lovely Hawaii in August?.

 

[ozimax]

Re: OZ v Greenback. AUD is down to 1.01 this morning. I think the word volatile is appropriate.

 

[serfty]

Re: OZ v Greenback. AUD is down to 1.01 this morning. I think the word volatile is appropriate.

Where?

Xe.com indicates currently ~$1.040 up from ~$1.031 12 hours ago but down from the ~$1.055 of Tuesday.

XE.com - AUD/USD Chart

 

[Foreigner]

Re: OZ v Greenback. AUD is down to 1.01 this morning. I think the word volatile is appropriate.

If it's 1.01, I will grab AUD for my USDs. The AUD got pretty close to 1.03 early today but seems support is there at that level.

 

[ozimax]

Where?

Xe.com indicates currently ~$1.040 up from ~$1.031 12 hours ago but down from the ~$1.055 of Tuesday.

XE.com - AUD/USD Chart

I am going off an OSx widget on my Macbook pro. I just checked again and it reads 1.02 Hang on, I will check xe.com.

It is indeed 1.04058 at this very moment. Apologies to all and sundry. I will delete the widget from my desktop immediately.

 

[ozimax]

I would trust xe.com before a third party widget. The widget is still on 1.02 which is obviously wrong.

 

[ozimax]

I just checked x-rates.com and it has the rate at 1.03!!!

I'm confused. Any financially literate people out there who can enlighten me as to the discrepancies in the various websites and their published exchange rates?

 

[Limewood]

Yes those HDMI cables must be looking quite cheap these days but I suppose it depends on the strength of the currency in place of purchase

Mainland USA this time or back to that lovely Hawaii in August?.

Well yep I remember when it was below AUD70 cents to USD$1

Hawaii again no, had 450K points to burn so used up 384K on 2 x JASA to LAX return (only have 94K currently.

 

[Foreigner]

Here's one of the links I use to track AUD:

Australian Dollar Forecast Currency Quotes AUD USD Charts Forecast Australian Dollar Research Rates Fx Quote Aussie Rates

You can select any of the currencies across the top.

 

[vetrade]

I'm confused. Any financially literate people out there who can enlighten me as to the discrepancies in the various websites and their published exchange rates?[/QUOTE]

Ozimax, the variation occurs because of who is quoting the exchange rate, what factors they use to calculate it and what their rate is to be used for. Some sites publish an average price over the past 24 hours - obviously that can vary a bit from the real time rate. Some quote interbank rates, some like Travelex quote buy/sell rates that have a margin built in for them, while others quote the CFD rate.

 

[Foreigner]

I just checked x-rates.com and it has the rate at 1.03!!!

I'm confused. Any financially literate people out there who can enlighten me as to the discrepancies in the various websites and their published exchange rates?

Some useful info here:

XE FAQ

 

[browski]

Well, there are many factors that affect the price, but let's look at a few biggies.

Making US dollar weaker:
1. Deficit Spending. The US Fed Govt makes 2.2 trillion in tax revenue and is spending 3.5 trillion this year. So that 1.3 trillion shortfall has to be made up somewhere. Bernanke will probably do what he always does and just print it: Bernanke’s Speech Has the Market Buzzing with QE3 Hopes | Business | TIME.com

2. The rest of the world is awake to the fragility of the US dollar so now most countries (including Australia) are scrambling to divest themselves from having to buy US dollars just to trade between eachother: BRICS sign two currency pacts, to set up joint bank - The Economic Times

3. Bernanke is keeping US interest rates a zero until at least the end of 2014. The difference in Aussie bank and US bank interest rates will keep money flowing here. Fed: Interest rates unchanged, no rate hikes likely till late 2014

Making US dollar stronger.
1. EU is in trouble too. So, Europeans are buying US dollars as a safe haven. But since that is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, that may be short lived. The only difference between the EU and the US is that at least the EU realise that they have a problem.

2. War with Iran ( or anyone else for that matter). Another good old fashioned war should give the US dollar a bit of a temporary boost.

Prediction: Aussie dollar stronger, unless Israel nukes Tehran.

 

[ozimax]

I'm confused. Any financially literate people out there who can enlighten me as to the discrepancies in the various websites and their published exchange rates?

Ozimax, the variation occurs because of who is quoting the exchange rate, what factors they use to calculate it and what their rate is to be used for. Some sites publish an average price over the past 24 hours - obviously that can vary a bit from the real time rate. Some quote interbank rates, some like Travelex quote buy/sell rates that have a margin built in for them, while others quote the CFD rate.

Thankyou one and all!

 

[drron]

One other scenario browski-China stalls,iron ore and coal prices drop=$A tanks.

 

[Daggs01]

Xe and ozforex are the most accurate.

You want to look for the interbank rate to see where the market is. However buying or selling at the IB rate is near impossible.

Sent from my GT-I9100 using AustFreqFly

 

[JohnK]

The exchange rate only has a good probability of predictability on a 24 hour time scale. If you don't think so check out the charts. Further out than that the only reality is that it will likely have an upper and lower limit of 1.10 and .94 respectively over a 1 year time line and most of the time it will oscillate between 1.03 and 1.06.

The exchange rate seems to have a habit of dropping when I am going overseas. The AUD-THB was the worst I have seen it about 2-3 years ago at ~23THB and that was when I was in Thailand. The AUD was also down against USD when I went via the US in 2007 and 2009!

Better still, if the exchange rate is important to you .....just don't go !!

The exchange rate is extremely important to me but there is no way I would sacrifice an overseas trip just because the AUD has dropped. I might cry and complain but I will still go....

 

[bushtuckerman]

And I am flying out Anzac Day and then again in early July!

Seriously though I wish I could prepay most of my trip but it is not possible. I will be looking to see if any Thai bank will let me open an account where I can dump a whole lot of AUD into it for future trips when the AUD is strong.

I'm back in July, and also pre-paid as much as possible. Since I'm there every year, I've also tried opening a Thai bank account for the same reason, but unsuccessful so far. Since the ThBt is pegged to the US$, its a good hedge but interest rates are poor. At this stage, the best I can do is bring a wad of ThBt home each year, which sits in the drawer until the next trip.

Cheers
Bush

 

[JohnK]

I'm back in July, and also pre-paid as much as possible. Since I'm there every year, I've also tried opening a Thai bank account for the same reason, but unsuccessful so far. Since the ThBt is pegged to the US$, its a good hedge but interest rates are poor. At this stage, the best I can do is bring a wad of ThBt home each year, which sits in the drawer until the next trip.

Opening a bank account is hit and miss and depends on who you encounter at the branch.

Your option of bringing back Thai baht back could be the way to go but don't we need to declare to Thai customs if we leave the country with more than 10,000 baht?