What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[marki]

Ad nauseam etc....

 

[marki]

What's happening to the dollar ??? Is it down, stable or thinking of going up?

 

[sumthinfornuthin]

Spot on.

I have no idea about foreign exchange but I am certain of one thing. The so called analysts have no idea.

If in doubt look up the definition ( urban ) of EXPERT

 

[Buzzard]

What's happening to the dollar ??? Is it down, stable or thinking of going up?



It has dropped down but is now stable. However, it is thinking of going up

 

[marki]

It has dropped down but is now stable. However, it is thinking of going up

You are better than the so called experts

 

[burmans]

You are better than the so called experts

It's always easier to comment on the past than the future!

 

[NM]

with the federal budget coming out soon, and with all the rumours and guessing about what may/may not be included, the A$ could do a number of back-flips in the coming weeks. Just where it lands post-budget is anyone's guess - 10% higher? 10% lower? exactly where it is now?

 

[drron]

The budget has nothing to do with it.
I am off to LOTFAP on 15/5 so the dollar will price in a drop ahead of that date.

 

[marki]

The budget has nothing to do with it.
I am off to LOTFAP on 15/5 so the dollar will price in a drop ahead of that date.

Don't you hate it.......me too heading in the 10th then in Berlin on the 14th although the euro exchange rate picked up today.


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[marki]

The dollar struggled for awhile .... But is still around 92cwnts


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[marki]

I read a lot about fx due to the nature of my work. All these so called analysts have no idea what the rate is going to do. One week they say its off to 80c, the next back to parity. As soon as a small trend develops everyone jumps on the bandwagon. I also agree the Citibank Plus account is terrible for FX rates, don't bother - only use it for ATM withdrawals.

Definitely noticed this! Only cash withdraw. Also HiFx mob used them very first time. T/F some AUD into a euro bank in EU charged extra 15 euro for the pleasure. It was not a SEPA transfer. SEPA transfers don't attract a fee. ( treated as domestic) So this HiFx mob new about it the cost difference but still don't give u a choice ........very poor indeed not using them again


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[JohnK]

It was 94c the other day. Up and down like a yo-yo.

 

[cove]

Yes JohnK that was me buying at .9360 putting a floor under it so it immediately ran up into .94s.

 

[JohnK]

I have been buying small amounts of USD at ~0.90-0.91 at the local exchange. Dropped below 0.90 the past few days.

 

[cove]

An easy way to look at the close to correct exchange rate is on the front page of Commsec. If I see a high number I think about buying US dollars or Euros and UK pounds.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Rose 82pts on some positive domestic data today - touched .9310 before settling back to around .9300 - guessers are still talking it down but it has a mind of its own.

 

[JohnK]

Go you little battler.

Need some extra money for golf next week. Golf festival discounts help but high AUD helps even more.

 

[cove]

I will buy some in the high 93s just to help it get to 94 or 95 for you.

 

[ethernet]

My theory is that it rises when Beijing has record pollution, and slides as the air quality improves.
I speculate the Chinese reduce/boycott Australian Iron ore and coal, and start burning using local ores - until they just cant breath, then go for the good stuff.

Edit: Boycott is the wrong word. I meant ease up, reverse positions on futures contracts, and use stockpiles and press releases to force stop losses in the wanted direction; and or switch to SA sources to amplify this sudden 'downturn'. Maybe cunningly manipulate is the right word.If they use their central demand numbers smarter - they get more cheaper. Plus they have some flexibility on outputs by shutdowns. The calculus is the area under the spot curve. They seem to win - except when pollution hits badly. Same trick as speed share trades, only bigger.

As the 2nd largest Oil Importer, I suspect they have a large hand in oil too - traders have wised up,hence needed to do a deal with gazprom to remove easy 'cyclical' bets from futures. I go on a limb and say should the oil price spike, and with certain aussie coal mines shut down, aussie and coal may have an upside, if the weather blows the pollution away.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

I speculate the Chinese boycott Australian Iron ore and coal

Certainly thinking outside the box - mind you possibly makes as much sense as some theories possessed by so-called experts.

ether - you an expert?