What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[drron]

As usual a certain public figure hasn't properly thought through the consequences of his threats. Almost 50% of US Oil & Mineral imports come from Canada. In a cost of living crisis I imagine huge push back if peoples energy bills and transport costs suddenly increased by huge amount.

Way out of date info. In 2018 the USA became the worlds largest crude oil producer. In 2020 it first became a net exporter of petroleum products.
Most of the US imports are of heavy crude most being refined in the USA and some then exported as light crude at a higher price.

Oil imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. crude oil imports sources including OPEC and Persian Gulf, and top five source countries of U.S. oil imports and destinations of U.S. crude oil exports.

www.eia.gov

So I doubt the US will mind if Canadian oil imports are reduced.
Australia is likely to benefit if US production goes up as the price will come down. Might be good for the little Aussie battler.

 

[Lynda2475]

Way out of date info.

No you didnt read my statement carefully enough and conveniently ignored the "& minerals" part and the fact that I said it was a % of imports.

25% of the uranium the USA uses to power its 54 nuclear power stations comes from Canada. Uranium imports are part of that "& minerals" and a cost contributor to energy costs for people heating & cooling their homes and businesses in the 30 states with nuclear power.

Canada is also the largest supplier to the USA of Indium (key for semiconductors) and Aluminium; and a large supplier of magnesium, tungsten and zinc.

Can they source these minerals elsewhere, probably, but then the transport costs will be higher (unless the new source is Mexico as everywhere else is further away); so costs would likely rise for US manufacturers who use these materials.

You are in the minority of thinking alienating a close neighbour and ally is a beneficial move for your average American.

 

[drron]

But you were way off with the oil. The USA is working on the minerals side. There are several uranium deposits that will add 3 million pounds of uranium supply this year.

Production begins at three US uranium mines

Energy Fuels has commenced production at three of its permitted and developed uranium mines in Arizona and Utah in response to strong market conditions. The company also expects to begin production at two additional mines in Colorado and Wyoming within a year.;

www.world-nuclear-news.org

There are more uranium mines getting closer to production particularly in Wyoming.. I have shares in a couple,
beside It imports only 27% of it's uranium from Canada not nearly 50% as you say. 9% from Australia.
Turn those figures around and there is another boost to the little Aussie battler.

And for indium the USA imports 300 tonnes per annum. Canada's production in 2023 was 39 tonnes so no where near 50% of the USA's imports. Another metal now controlled by China. Interestingly it is another Australian company that has recently outlined an Indium resource in Nevada.

 

[Lynda2475]

No i was not way off on oil because as everyone can plainly see you are misunderstanding what was actually written.

My original post was collective hence the & and I used the qualifier almost, I never said exactly. No where did I say almost 50% of each and every individual type of oil or mineral imported came from Canada, you incorrectly concluded that.

To put it more clearly since you are struggling: Of all the oils (I never limited to crude) and all the minerals (including lime and cement) that the USA imports from everywhere each year, almost 50% (47.3% to be exact) comes from Canada.

My follow-up post also clearly said that 25% of imported uranium came from Canada (not 50%, as you are implying) and that Canada was the "largest supplier" of imported indium which also isn't the same as saying they provide 50% of indium.

So my statement about tariffs on oil & mineral imports from Canada being likely to drive up the costs of energy and transport (especially electric transport) holds true.

FYI in times of high demand Canada exports almost 10% of their locally produced electricity to US states that border them.

Also over 90% of the natural gas the USA imports comes directly from Canada. That natural gas is refined to ensure stability of supply for the many non-nuclear power plants, households that use gas for heating & cooking; businesses use gas to process other minerals; and the small % of LPG vehicles (mostly school busses).

I stand by my position that imposing significantly higher tariffs on imports from Canada will negatively impact cost of living in USA unless they find other cheaper trading partners for their imported oil and minerals (and also gas).

I am also less confident that Canada's loss would be Australia's gain.

I would love to see the AUD recover against the greenback; just not sure the USA increasing cost of Canadian imports is what will see the AUD increase in value.

 

[Scarlett]

At what point does the US national debt (~$34 trillion) and successive government inability to do anything about it other than grow it further, become a liability for the USD?

Surely at ~123% of GDP and forecast (by the US Treasury) to continue to grow over the next few decades, it is or will become unsustainable?

 

[drron]

As usual a certain public figure hasn't properly thought through the consequences of his threats. Almost 50% of US Oil & Mineral imports come from Canada. In a cost of living crisis I imagine huge push back if peoples energy bills and transport costs suddenly increased by huge amount.

As usual you misconstrue my points. I replied to your original post on the subject as above.
And you probably don't realise that the figures you quote are the percentage of US imports that come from Canada not the percentage of total US supply.
Your statement is correct that 52% of the US oil and gas imports come from Canada But those imports are less than 10% of the US supply. In oil and gas the US is a net exporter. Figures for gas.

So the point you made " In a cost of living crisis I imagine huge push back if peoples energy bills and transport costs suddenly increased by huge amount" is not going to happen. It would hurt Canada much more. Oil, gas and minerals make up 40% of Canada's exports. More than half of that is oil and gas. 97% of Canada's oil and gas exports go to the USA.

https://www.capp.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Canadian-Exports-of-Crude-Oil-and-Natural-Gas.pdf

So if Canada reduces it's exports of oil and gas to the USA in response to tariffs or US refiners reduce their imports from Canada due to the higher price it is Canada that is going to suffer the most not the USA. Canada already has a trade deficit with the US.

 

[I love to travel]

As usual you misconstrue my points. I replied to your original post on the subject as above.
And you probably don't realise that the figures you quote are the percentage of US imports that come from Canada not the percentage of total US supply.
Your statement is correct that 52% of the US oil and gas imports come from Canada But those imports are less than 10% of the US supply. In oil and gas the US is a net exporter. Figures for gas.View attachment 425067

So the point you made " In a cost of living crisis I imagine huge push back if peoples energy bills and transport costs suddenly increased by huge amount" is not going to happen. It would hurt Canada much more. Oil, gas and minerals make up 40% of Canada's exports. More than half of that is oil and gas. 97% of Canada's oil and gas exports go to the USA.
View attachment 425071

https://www.capp.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Canadian-Exports-of-Crude-Oil-and-Natural-Gas.pdf

So if Canada reduces it's exports of oil and gas to the USA in response to tariffs or US refiners reduce their imports from Canada due to the higher price it is Canada that is going to suffer the most not the USA. Canada already has a trade deficit with the US.

Watched an interview today on CNN with Justin Treadue who agreed Canada will be hurt the most. His list of what tariffs Canada could impose on the US was small. I had to laugh when he said Heinz tomato sauce.
Back on topic AUD still treading water around 62c to USD. Apart from one blip has been like that for weeks.

 

[burmans]

Agree, while there has been attempts to pressure it downward it appears quite resilient at 62 cents

 

[RSD]

Can you imagine how confused the U.S. Army is right now? I mean they wouldn't know whether they should be...

a) doing arctic warfare training so they are ready to invade Greenland?
b) doing desert warfare training so they are ready to invade Iran?
c) doing jungle warfare training so they are ready to invade Panama?
d) doing French lessons so they are ready to invade Canada?
e) doing none of the above because they know Trump has ADD and will have probably forgotten that he said any of those things by the time he gets sworn in on the 20th of January?

 

[Lynda2475]

And you probably don't realise that the figures you quote are the percentage of US imports that come from Canada not the percentage of total US supply.

No I realised exactly what I said when i said % of imports, the only person mentioning total US supply was you.

The tariffs hurt Canada if as a result the US buy less from Canada, but that assumes alternative suppliers will be cheaper.

If the US customers keep ordering from Canada the price will be passed on to US consumers.

There are limits on Uranium exports so that 25% might not be so easy to find cheaper elsewhere.

Canada won't decide to export less, the choice is whether the US is willing to pay more to import or go elsewhere.

Trump thinks the threat of going elsewhere will force Canada to drop prices, but I suspect they will seek other buyers such as China before just capitulating.

I still think AUD is unlikely to be greatly affected either way, as the tirany of distance and high wages don't necessarily make us a cheaper option.

Im lucky I have no need for USDs this year