Will Qantas Ever Fly To China Again?

[moa999]

By the end of 2026 when QF have a decent number of domestic 321XLRs and they've refurbed the 10 332s I suspect we may start to see some new routes, particularly as the 35Ks are also due.

But suspect China won't be top of the priority list.

 

[RooFlyer]

Yes if they can pay their staff Chinese wages, get Chinese rates to service their aircraft and Chinese prices on all their inputs so they can compete from a price perspective.

Clearly that won’t happen.

Could readily happen if Qantas formed a mainland China subsidiary and employed into it. They do that in many other cases.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

You will most likely just get conjecture.

Say what? On AFF? Surely you jest?

And here is me thinking AFF is the the home of fact, knowledge and topic expertise - I gotta get out more

 

[drron]

No-one here would have any real insight into when QF may resume those flights. You will most likely just get conjecture.

But AFFers are the absolute experts in conjecture.

 

[DC3]

And here is me thinking AFF is the the home of fact, knowledge and topic expertise - I gotta get out more

But AFFers are the absolute experts in conjecture.

Good advice for the OP, who is brave enough to dip a toe into the AFF water

 

[elanshin]

By the end of 2026 when QF have a decent number of domestic 321XLRs and they've refurbed the 10 332s I suspect we may start to see some new routes, particularly as the 35Ks are also due.

But suspect China won't be top of the priority list.

The main issue is that I want to say they would like a slice of the China pie, but the amount of work they need to do to get to it might be tough. You'd need to have Chinese apps, marketing campaign, flight attendents etc. But the market is still huge and still growing.

I suspect they'd rather get a more robust partnership for China going instead.

 

[jase05]

Food can be hit or miss. Its solidly in the average to just below average range. Service generally is also fine but it differs from airline to airline.

Had a few J flights with Xiamen and rate them far better than most QF international flights I’ve been on. From my experience Xiamen and Hainan have been better than the other Chinese carriers but been a while since I’ve been on the others. Keen to try China Southern out of ADL and see if their product has improved

 

[rbjhan]

Could readily happen if Qantas formed a mainland China subsidiary and employed into it. They do that in many other cases.

Thing is, your Chinese subsidiary might make money on paper, but with their capital control you can't actually transfer money out... Years ago I worked in a multinational company with this exact problem....all our intercompany accounts are meant to be settled with real cash not just a reconciliation, the Chinese ones never paid!

 

[p--and--t]

Chinese ones never paid!

Heard that before from multiple sources. Many big players worldwide players caught out.

 

[rbjhan]

Heard that before from multiple sources. Many big players worldwide players caught out.

Well yes if you google "profit repatriation from China" that's clearly not easy. I only looked after the intercompany accounts and they were a pain, don't want to know about profits!

I also know some normal people trying to transfer their personal savings to AU (post- migration) and having major difficulties.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

Well yes if you google "profit repatriation from China" that's clearly not easy. I only looked after the intercompany accounts and they were a pain, don't want to know about profits!

I also know some normal people trying to transfer their personal savings to AU (post- migration) and having major difficulties.

That's one of the reasons why the Chinese are so into crypto.

 

[dajop]

Thing is, your Chinese subsidiary might make money on paper, but with their capital control you can't actually transfer money out... Years ago I worked in a multinational company with this exact problem....all our intercompany accounts are meant to be settled with real cash not just a reconciliation, the Chinese ones never paid!

But would Qantas even need to get money out? Aren’t we talking about a subsidiary where the main idea is to lower operating costs, and as such Qantas basically would just be paying the subsidiary to provide services (operate China services) rather then relying on the subsidiary to generate sales?

In any event complicated and risky to do -and Qantas have bigger fish to fry, so almost zero chance of it happening.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

But would Qantas even need to get money out? Aren’t we talking about a subsidiary where the main idea is to lower operating costs, and as such Qantas basically would just be paying the subsidiary to provide services (operate China services) rather then relying on the subsidiary to generate sales?

In any event complicated and risky to do -and Qantas have bigger fish to fry, so almost zero chance of it happening.

Too much hassle relative to what they might make from it. Fact is most foreign businesses that go to China seeking great fortune do not succeed. Only a small number do. It's a tough market to succeed in.

 

[dajop]

Too much hassle relative to what they might make from it. Fact is most foreign businesses that go to China seeking great fortune do not succeed. Only a small number do. It's a tough market to succeed in.

But I don’t think anyone suggested they go to China to seek “ great fortune”. The only suggestion was more or less using Chinese labour to make services to China more competitive. Like they do with British and Kiwi labour. And Jetstar does with Indonesian, Singaporean and Thai labour.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But I don’t think anyone suggested they go to China to seek “ great fortune”. The only suggestion was more or less using Chinese labour to make services to China more competitive. Like they do with British and Kiwi labour. And Jetstar does with Indonesian, Singaporean and Thai labour.

But what’s the return in investment? And is it enough compared to other things they could be doing? Shareholders may not want execs spending months setting up an off-shore subsidiary when they could be spending the same time on a far more lucrative route. And even if it were to get off the ground, where would tickets be sold, Australia only so they have easy access to funds? etc…

 

[elanshin]

China is an all in market. You really need a local team and partner that could almost run most of the things themselves. At least thats if you want to target the Chinese audience.

If not you're going to be hoping that the Western interest in China returns and perhaps in the future it becomes a JQ route if holiday makers want to go visit China (which frankly whilst difficult sometimes is one of the most historically and culturally rich countries on this planet).

 

[drron]

Though QF may have to unwind some of these cheaper contracts after the Same job same pay rules were introduced. They were introduced because of the actions of QF.

 

[travelislife]

Juneyao have just started flights in to MEL and SYD from PVG. We are flying them in January from SYD-PVG-KIX return in January to go skiing, $740 a ticket return per person for a family of four was too hard to turn down when all other carriers to Japan were pretty much $2k a ticket when I booked about 6 weeks ago.

 

[vdj_145]

I think it's unlikely given that they probably won't be competitive price-wise. I think it's unlikely people are willing to pay that premium going forward when the flights offered are similar.

 

[mrflyby]

Could readily happen if Qantas formed a mainland China subsidiary and employed into it. They do that in many other cases.

Not possible. Considering all the airlines in China are government owned or majority owned.
The 3 big ones 100% and the smaller airlines owned often by one of the big 3.
Then during COVID, they made sure HK suffered on purpose to reduce their relevance and get more control, then took a share in CX too. Not majority owned yet, but they likely will eventually find a way to achieve this.
So as competition goes. I don't think China would allow a 3rd party non state owned entity to set up shop there.