will VARA ever expand to the east-coast?

[Lucass]

Not sure you grasp economies of scale tbh.

QF manages to fill two 737-800s on sydney-coffs harbour every day during peak times whilst having prices from $200 on a 50 minute flight. Pretty sure VA could break into that market.

 

[Harrison_133]

QF manages to fill two 737-800s on sydney-coffs harbour every day during peak times whilst having prices from $200 on a 50 minute flight. Pretty sure VA could break into that market.

Not the best example. QF are only using the 737s to Coffs Harbour temporarily because of fleet constraints with the Q400. They switch back to Q400 only at the end of March.

You keep saying that low fares would mean people would choose VA instead. How did that work out for VA when they tried Coffs Harbour again back in 2021 with fares that were consistently low? They pulled out after 4 months.

 

[Simon Overall]

QF manages to fill two 737-800s on sydney-coffs harbour every day during peak times whilst having prices from $200 on a 50 minute flight. Pretty sure VA could break into that market.

They're only using the 737s till next month while they train new Q400 pilots.

 

[Lucass]

Not the best example. QF are only using the 737s to Coffs Harbour temporarily because of fleet constraints with the Q400. They switch back to Q400 only at the end of March.

You keep saying that low fares would mean people would choose VA instead. How did that work out for VA when they tried Coffs Harbour again back in 2021 with fares that were consistently low? They pulled out after 4 months.

No you’re wrong. QF fly the 737 during peak times on that route and consistently fill them. They switch back to the Q400s during off peak times. VA pulled out because they needed to deploy capacity elsewhere. This was also not long after Covid, when travel demand was not nearly as high is it is now.

Post automatically merged: Today at 11:24 AM

They're only using the 737s till next month while they train new Q400 pilots.

And yet they can fill them. I understand it’s to train pilots but it is also because they can add extra capacity over the summer season

 

[HS-TQE]

Also the regular reminder that a full plane of low fares does not necessarily equal profit in the airline industry. It's all about the yields, not the amount of people in their seats.

As Bonza found out, a full plane of heavily discounted low yielding fares does not cover costs and that low yielding full plane is still ultimately losing money for the airline

 

[Harrison_133]

QF fly the 737 during peak times on that route and consistently fill them. They switch back to the Q400s during off peak times.

This is just completely false. They only introduced the 737 on SYD-CFS in December 2024 because of Q400 fleet constraints. At no point prior have they switched between 737 and Q400 on that route.

And yet they can fill them.

How do you know that?

 

[Lucass]

Also the regular reminder that a full plane of low fares does not necessarily equal profit in the airline industry. It's all about the yields, not the amount of people in their seats.

As Bonza found out, a full plane of heavily discounted low yielding fares does not cover costs and that low yielding full plane is still ultimately losing money for the airline

Yes but bonza doesn’t have the scale and deep pockets that VA has

 

[Lucass]

This is just completely false. They only introduced the 737 on SYD-CFS in December 2024 because of Q400 fleet constraints. At no point prior have they switched between 737 and Q400 on that route.

How do you know that?

It was also to add capacity over summer season. I know it was primarily for pilot training but they could have also put an e-190 on there if they weren’t confident they could fill them. I looked at Qantas website, load factors in economy approximately 80% on the 737. Pretty good if you ask me

 

[Simon Overall]

Also the regular reminder that a full plane of low fares does not necessarily equal profit in the airline industry. It's all about the yields, not the amount of people in their seats.

As Bonza found out, a full plane of heavily discounted low yielding fares does not cover costs and that low yielding full plane is still ultimately losing money for the airline

This is the key point here.

 

[Lucass]

This is the key point here.

Again VA has scale and money which bonza didn’t have. Also VA is waaay more reputable than bonza.

 

[Simon Overall]

Again VA has scale and money which bonza didn’t have. Also VA is waaay more reputable than bonza.

The point still stands irrespective of reputation.

Doesn't automatically equate to profit.

Virgin are back in profit for a reason, and part of it is making decisions such as ceasing unprofitable and routes where they won't sell the yield.

 

[Lucass]

The point still stands irrespective of reputation.

Doesn't automatically equate to profit.

Virgin are back in profit for a reason, and part of it is making decisions such as ceasing unprofitable and routes where they won't sell the yield.

I get that but pre-Covid their regional ops were a mess. They had a fleet of extremely expensive atrs, e-190s and were also managing tigerair and international ops. I understand it doesn’t automatically equate to profit, but it can certainly help

 

[Harrison_133]

I looked at Qantas website, load factors in economy approximately 80% on the 737. Pretty good if you ask me

Looking at airline websites is by no means an accurate way to ascertain load factors.

According to the BITRE data for December 2024, CFS-SYD had a load factor of 70.7% and MEL-MQL 67.4%. These are markets that barely warrant extra capacity from a third airline, nor are they justification for VARA to expend the resources and capital to establish aircraft and crew bases on the East Coast. You're also forgetting that the primary role of the E2s at VARA is to service the FIFO market. Anything else at this point is just wishful thinking.

The only way I see the E190-E2s ending up on the East Coast is if VA want to replace the Alliance Fokker flying out of Brisbane. Even then, that's a stretch.

 

[Lucass]

Looking at airline websites is by no means an accurate way to ascertain load factors.

According to the BITRE data for December 2024, CFS-SYD had a load factor of 70.7% and MEL-MQL 67.4%. These are markets that barely warrant extra capacity from a third airline, nor are they justification for VARA to expend the resources and capital to establish aircraft and crew bases on the East Coast. You're also forgetting that the primary role of the E2s at VARA is to service the FIFO market. Anything else at this point is just wishful thinking.

The only way I see the E190-E2s ending up on the East Coast is if VA want to replace the Alliance Fokker flying out of Brisbane. Even then, that's a stretch.

They are replacing majority of fokker flying with 737s out of brisbane.

 

[Harrison_133]

They are replacing majority of fokker flying with 737s out of brisbane.

Select services. Not all.

 

[markis10]

Per seat costs for a 737 compared to a dusty old SAAB is far lower if they can fill the seats. Which they can if it is leisure based/fares are significantly cheaper. This is exactly what Bonza’s CEO said about Mel to Mildura

Anybody who took Bonzas CEO at face value is a fool, after all the original business case for them was based on ATRs! Per seat costs maybe lower on bigger aircraft but it’s chalk and cheese to compare a SAAb to a 737, and price leading fares make 10% difference to loads. Bonza had $29 fares and still could find enough folk to fill their planes.

 

[TheInsider]

It was also to add capacity over summer season. I know it was primarily for pilot training but they could have also put an e-190 on there if they weren’t confident they could fill them. I looked at Qantas website, load factors in economy approximately 80% on the 737. Pretty good if you ask me

No you’re wrong. QF fly the 737 during peak times on that route and consistently fill them. They switch back to the Q400s during off peak times. VA pulled out because they needed to deploy capacity elsewhere. This was also not long after Covid, when travel demand was not nearly as high is it is now.

Post automatically merged: Today at 11:24 AM

And yet they can fill them. I understand it’s to train pilots but it is also because they can add extra capacity over the summer season

Wrong about loads, again...
Blue dot, is available seats

 

[Lucass]

Select services. Not all.

Wrong about loads, again...
Blue dot, is available seats
View attachment 436054

View attachment 436056

View attachment 436057

What website is this from?

 

[TheInsider]

What website is this from?

Nothing you'd have access to

https://sto.qantas.com/

 

[Simon Overall]

Hahhah it all makes sense now. QF worker lmaooo

Lucas I'd prob end the conversation here than flogging a dead horse.