will VARA ever expand to the east-coast?

[p--and--t]

An old proverb "wishful thinking does not make it so"

 

[Simon Overall]

Whatever you say Simon

Getting churlish with people on here when you have been corrected multiple times won't endear you to anyone.

 

[Saab34]

Coffs is a tough one, Tiger was in and out more times than I can remember. Bonza gave it a crack also.

 

[ben95]

Aside from profitability another factor the arm chair CEO hasn’t considered is the (opportunity) cost to shuffle these aircraft between the coast.

You’d waste 12 hours ferrying an E190 from Perth to Melbourne/Sydney and back - that’s a full day of revenue flying the aircraft could have done and is otherwise wasted on being ferried to the east coast. Plus the lack of a E190 base there means the crew will have to reposition and overnight at a hotel. Don’t think those extra overhead will mean you can undercut Qantas/Rex.

 

[Lucass]

Aside from profitability another factor the arm chair CEO hasn’t considered is the (opportunity) cost to shuffle these aircraft between the coast.

You’d waste 12 hours ferrying an E190 from Perth to Melbourne/Sydney and back - that’s a full day of revenue flying the aircraft could have done and is otherwise wasted on being ferried to the east coast. Plus the lack of a E190 base there means the crew will have to reposition and overnight at a hotel. Don’t think those extra overhead will mean you can undercut Qantas/Rex.

Hahah that’s why I said “a base on the east coast” or have 737-700s which aren’t operated by VARA that way they don’t need to be shuffled from coast to coast.

 

[elanshin]

Hahah that’s why I said “a base on the east coast” or have 737-700s which aren’t operated by VARA

So what sort of timeline are you thinking for these to get going? A few years to get aircrafts?

What happens if tomorrow there is a real start on a high-speed rail project or even an upgrade to the existing rail increasing frequency, speed and comfort. Remember the risk factor here isn't just airlines.

Now we know that HSR is "always around the corner", but as someone looking to start a business case, this is a very real what if scenario as it could easily eat all your demand if such a line was completed. Airlines aren't usually looking at just 1-2 year outlooks.

 

[ben95]

Hahah that’s why I said “a base on the east coast”

Mate get your logic together. Your whole business case was like “undercut Qantas/Rex” then you throw something like “oh yeah setup an extra base on the east coast and base E190s there instead of Perth where they are making good money FIFO”.

737-700s which aren’t operated by VARA

The 700s exist because the FIFO airfields are too hot and short. They are necessary at Perth but on the east coast the per seat scale of the 800 makes much more sense.

 

[Lucass]

Mate get your logic together. Your whole business case was like “undercut Qantas/Rex” then you throw something like “oh yeah setup an extra base on the east coast and base E190s there instead of Perth where they are making good money FIFO”.


The 700s exist because the FIFO airfields are too hot and short. They are necessary at Perth but on the east coast the per seat scale of the 800 makes much more sense.

Hahah no. 737-700s are extremely important on east coast. They fly pretty much all flights between Sydney and Ballina as well as thinner routes like bne to Hobart, Canberra and Uluṟu etc.

 

[Simon Overall]

Hahah no. 737-700s are extremely important on east coast. They fly pretty much all flights between Sydney and Ballina as well as thinner routes like bne to Hobart, Canberra and Uluṟu etc.

News to me about the Sydney to Ballina route. Looks as if according to flight aware all services are operated by a 737.800.

What days are they operating the 737-700?

 

[Lucass]

News to me about the Sydney to Ballina route. Looks as if according to flight aware all services are operated by a 737.800.

What days are they operating the 737-700?

Look at flight radar, VA1139, pretty much all flights recently have been on 737-700s.

 

[Harrison_133]

Hahah no. 737-700s are extremely important on east coast. They fly pretty much all flights between Sydney and Ballina as well as thinner routes like bne to Hobart, Canberra and Uluṟu etc.

The 700s aren't necessarily cheaper to operate though. Their cost per seat kilometre would be higher given there are less seats on the aircraft, and with VA still using 4 cabin crew on the 700s, the crewing costs would be same, not lower. In a lot of situations, it's probably better to use an -800 with a lower load factor because the CASK is better.

There was a plan to crew the all-Y -700s in WA with 3 cabin crew, but that was abandoned a long time ago when they decided to fit business cabins.

News to me about the Sydney to Ballina route. Looks as if according to flight aware all services are operated by a 737.800.

What days are they operating the 737-700?

The VA1139/1140 rotation is usually a -700.

 

[Lucass]

The 700s aren't necessarily cheaper to operate though. Their cost per seat kilometre would be higher given there are less seats on the aircraft, and with VA still using 4 cabin crew on the 700s, the crewing costs would be same, not lower. In a lot of situations, it's probably better to use an -800 with a lower load factor because the CASK is better.

There was a plan to crew the all-Y -700s in WA with 3 cabin crew, but that was abandoned a long time ago when they decided to fit business cabins.


The VA1139/1140 rotation is usually a -700.

Yeah I agree. But VA have definitely made use of the 737-700s on the east coast.

 

[MarkD]

Hahah no. 737-700s are extremely important on east coast. They fly pretty much all flights between Sydney and Ballina as well as thinner routes like bne to Hobart, Canberra and Uluṟu etc.

They got rid of all but 2 700s in a prior life. The Ex KLM 737-700 were bought as a stop gap measure for FIFO where 800 were not suitable and the Fokkers getting on in age. They now circulate a bit around the network when downtime from FIFO allows which, again, is good management and utization of assets. Please stop referencing Bonza as a benchmark, they were a complete failed business plan from day 1 and any reference to them when claiming viability is complete and utter horse cough.

 

[A321]

School holidays already?

 

[dajop]

Ok. One thing in support of the OP. At some point , well into the future, perhaps after Bain have divested their holding , some investors are not going to be happy with a very profitable airline but will want to see growth. With that in mind the CEO will challenge the team and bring in a consultant to find growth opportunities. And someone will suggest expanding international and another bright spark will want to explore more secondary domestic ports. So the investors will get their revenue growth. At the expense of profit. Rinse and repeat a decade or two later.

 

[PERLHR]

Interesting conversation. However I think the "load" and "filling the plane" is a red herring. It's the yield that counts. Many flights throughout the world can be filled then pulled because the yield makes it not viable. Price and frequency is important but underselling to be viable is a no no.

 

[elanshin]

I think rather than call it VARA, it would make more sense if there's another separate entity to do this on the east coast if that is what VA eventually tries.

This won't be anything anytime soon. But as I alluded to previously, many of the possible routes would be made redundant as a future business case if the federal government commits and starts building rail.

So it'll need a whole host of lots of things to fall in place for VA to expand its regional east coast situation.

 

[PERLHR]

VARA as currently exists will probably have enough issues trying to retain staff, pilots and CC to keep going once the 320s leave what with all the leases etc on going. I'm assuming most are WA based?

 

[simmomelb]

I think rather than call it VARA, it would make more sense if there's another separate entity to do this on the east coast if that is what VA eventually tries.

This won't be anything anytime soon. But as I alluded to previously, many of the possible routes would be made redundant as a future business case if the federal government commits and starts building rail.

So it'll need a whole host of lots of things to fall in place for VA to expand its regional east coast situation.

Whilst I agree with most of what you have said, the federal government building a fast rail is laughable now, although the media love to report on it once per year, which is always entertaining.

I will certainly be dead by the time any rail project of this scale is built, and I hope to be around for another 30 to 40 years

 

[elanshin]

Whilst I agree with most of what you have said, the federal government building a fast rail is laughable now, although the media love to report on it once per year, which is always entertaining.

I will certainly be dead by the time any rail project of this scale is built, and I hope to be around for another 30 to 40 years

Oh i'm not optimistic either, but if you're doing some medium long term planning you really need to take this factor into consideration that any government might suddenly decide to tank your business model and plan.