Will you vaccinate with Conoravirus vaccine when one is available?

[CityRail]

According to reports, coronavirus vaccine is entering its final phase of testing and very soon we will have millions of coronavirus vaccine to be rolled out, hopefully from September.

By then, should a coronavirus vaccine is available, will you vaccinate it?

Personally speaking, as a 30 year old young person, I will not vaccinate myself with Coronavirus, because:

1. It is just a small flu for young people, we won't die;
2. The vaccine is rushed and I cannot guarantee if I vaccinate myself, I will be immune to Coronavirus and not get killed by the vaccine;
3. The coronavirus vaccine is just a step to reopen our borders so that we can travel overseas again.

I am not anti-vaxier, however I only think that Coronavirus vaccine is just a political ticket for politicians to explain to the public that they can now open the international borders again and ease off travel bubbles.

What do you think?

 

[NM]

Some people must be seeing different statistics to what I am viewing. I see people claiming that the "survival rate" for COVID-19 is in the order of 99.7%. Given that the outcome for people who catch COVID-19 is binary (eventually), in that they either survive or do not survive, that survival rate would imply a non-survival rate (or death rate) of 0.3%.

However, in Australia the official reports show (as of today) 28,237 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 908 deaths. My mathematics puts the death rate at 3.22%, an order of magnitude higher than the (sometimes) claimed 0.3%. And looking at the global statistics as reported by Johns Hopkins University, the death rate is slightly lower at 2.2%, which is still considerably higher than 0.3%.

Yes, the death rate is slowly decreasing over time, likely as treatments are improving. The global death rate peaked at 7.16% in early May. And in the case of Australia, the higher death rate appears to be related to previous transmissions through aged care facilities where the survival rate is considerably lower. And with better controls in place to limit the spread through aged care populations the death rate in Australia is steadily decreasing down from its peak of 3.31% in October.

I see/hear people making statements about not getting vaccinated because the survival rate of 99.7% means they are willing to accept the risk of catching the disease. But with a real non-survival (death) rate of 2.2% (global) or 3.2% (Australia), meaning between 22 and 33 people likely to die per 1000 cases, that is a risk I would prefer to avoid. And even if I did survive myself, I would not like to consider that I might have transmitted it,. either directly or indirectly, to someone else who did not survive.

And I note that the outcome from catching COVID-19 is not really binary as the statistics report, but that many survivors are reporting serious ongoing complications (chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue etc.) many months after "recovery".

Right now I am happy to wait it out here at home and monitor the vaccine safety as it is distributed in countries where waiting and even more thorough testing is not a luxury available. And I am in no hurry to travel internationally. But I will certainly get the vaccine before my next international trip and will get it when it becomes available to me in the due course of distribution, noting I will not quality for early receipt of the vaccine.

I am pleased that there are multiple viable vaccine options being produced, so if one turns out to have issues or to be less effective that hoped, by the time I am in line for my shot(s) I can have more faith in the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Some people must be seeing different statistics to what I am viewing. I see people claiming that the "survival rate" for COVID-19 is in the order of 99.7%. Given that the outcome for people who catch COVID-19 is binary (eventually), in that they either survive or do not survive, that survival rate would imply a non-survival rate (or death rate) of 0.3%.

However, in Australia the official reports show (as of today) 28,237 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 908 deaths. My mathematics puts the death rate at 3.22%, an order of magnitude higher than the (sometimes) claimed 0.3%. And looking at the global statistics as reported by Johns Hopkins University, the death rate is slightly lower at 2.2%, which is still considerably higher than 0.3%.

Yes, the death rate is slowly decreasing over time, likely as treatments are improving. The global death rate peaked at 7.16% in early May. And in the case of Australia, the higher death rate appears to be related to previous transmissions through aged care facilities where the survival rate is considerably lower. And with better controls in place to limit the spread through aged care populations the death rate in Australia is steadily decreasing down from its peak of 3.31% in October.

I see/hear people making statements about not getting vaccinated because the survival rate of 99.7% means they are willing to accept the risk of catching the disease. But with a real non-survival (death) rate of 2.2% (global) or 3.2% (Australia), meaning between 22 and 33 people likely to die per 1000 cases, that is a risk I would prefer to avoid. And even if I did survive myself, I would not like to consider that I might have transmitted it,. either directly or indirectly, to someone else who did not survive.

And I note that the outcome from catching COVID-19 is not really binary as the statistics report, but that many survivors are reporting serious ongoing complications (chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue etc.) many months after "recovery".

Right now I am happy to wait it out here at home and monitor the vaccine safety as it is distributed in countries where waiting and even more thorough testing is not a luxury available. And I am in no hurry to travel internationally. But I will certainly get the vaccine before my next international trip and will get it when it becomes available to me in the due course of distribution, noting I will not quality for early receipt of the vaccine.

I am pleased that there are multiple viable vaccine options being produced, so if one turns out to have issues or to be less effective that hoped, by the time I am in line for my shot(s) I can have more faith in the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.

Yes I agree. Though as not everyone gets tested due to either a lack of available tests, or lack of symptoms or even just not wanting to and so the mortality rate measured from deaths/cases is most likely an over-estimate. But I think it would be well above 0.3 %.

Sweden is a country with a very good health system, a healthy population, good resources and at least initially a fairly relaxed policy on Covid19 has a mortality rate of 2%. in terms of deaths per cases.

However those survival rates are for whole of population.


However for those that are young and without comorbidities the % does become very small. However they can still have other health problems, though again the %'s will be less.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Some may be looking at deaths per 100,000 population as this is only say 0.03 to 0.1%. But this does not take into account the number exposed.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I see people claiming that the "survival rate" for COVID-19 is in the order of 99.7%.

I think that's the figure being quoted by some younger AFFers in respect to their specific age and decision to have the vaccine, or not.

 

[drron]

I think the 0.3% came out of the USA for younger age groups.
Looking at Australia's figures only 58 covid deaths were in people under 70.Which in my head comes out as 0.21% of our (population) covid cases..

COVID-19 deaths by age group and sex

This graph shows the number of COVID-19 associated deaths in Australia for males and females by age group since the first case was reported.

www.health.gov.au

 

[StevoQFtraveller]

Just give me the vaccine so that I can travel!

 

[Oneworldplus2]

in Australia the official reports show (as of today) 28,237 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 908 deaths. My mathematics puts the death rate at 3.22%,

I did a major project in VIC this year. There were around 500 people on this project which ran for 4+ months. It was pretty strict and needed approval from VIC Health and Covid-19 strategies and plans to go ahead. Anyways, we had two people who came into Covid-19 close contact from outside the project. I remember during the second case VIC Health put out a statement to us saying the real number of Covid-19 cases was probably in the order of 40k - 50k in VIC alone.

 

[NM]

However for those that are young and without comorbidities the % does become very small. However they can still have other health problems, though again the %'s will be less.

I think that's the figure being quoted by some younger AFFers in respect to their specific age and decision to have the vaccine, or not.

I think the 0.3% came out of the USA for younger age groups.
Looking at Australia's figures only 58 covid deaths were in people under 70.Which in my head comes out as 0.21% of our population.Probably is pretty close to 0.3% of our population that is under 70.

But we live as part of a community, not in isolation within our specific age group or other grouping (what is the mortality rate for people with blonde hair? or people under 165cm tall?). Just because a person fits a particular profile that has lower risk does not mean they are less likely to continue the propagation of the virus or are any less likely to pass it onto someone who has a higher risk of death or serious illness.

My personal opinion is that the view that one does not need to be vaccinated on the basis that they are unlikely to die if they get the disease is being very selfish and inconsiderate of the more vulnerable members in our community. And there are many examples of young, previously healthy people who die or become very seriously ill with COVID-19.

I can't imagine the trauma I would feel if I passed the virus to my elderly mother, who passed it through her vulnerable contacts, resulting in one or more people dying, just because I thought I was unlikely to die and hence do not require to be vaccinated! While I may fit the profile of a low-risk person (due to my age, no previous health issues), I and everyone else in the world fit the exact profile of someone who can catch and transmit the virus to others.

 

[Lynda2475]

Have been chatrting with a friend today whi is a radiologist in Indianna, USA. BEcause she is a medical worker she is getting her vaccine on Tuesday, I will interested to hear how she gets on.

I am willing to have vaccine once endorsed as safe by Australian standards, but I am dissapointed that as someone with no preexisting consitions in my 40s I'll be waiting a long time before it will be aailable to me as am bottom of the priority list. I undersatnd there are essentail workers and vulnerable people who need it before me, but I cant fly internationally until vaccinated so ikley wont be able to travel next year as I probably wont see a vaccine before end of 2021.

 

[drron]

But we live as part of a community, not in isolation within our specific age group or other grouping (what is the mortality rate for people with blonde hair? or people under 165cm tall?). Just because a person fits a particular profile that has lower risk does not mean they are less likely to continue the propagation of the virus or are any less likely to pass it onto someone who has a higher risk of death or serious illness.

My personal opinion is that the view that one does not need to be vaccinated on the basis that they are unlikely to die if they get the disease is being very selfish and inconsiderate of the more vulnerable members in our community. And there are many examples of young, previously healthy people who die or become very seriously ill with COVID-19.

I can't imagine the trauma I would feel if I passed the virus to my elderly mother, who passed it through her vulnerable contacts, resulting in one or more people dying, just because I thought I was unlikely to die and hence do not require to be vaccinated! While I may fit the profile of a low-risk person (due to my age, no previous health issues), I and everyone else in the world fit the exact profile of someone who can catch and transmit the virus to others.

I agree.Was just suggesting where that figure comes from.
Though it does seem that opposition to the vaccine is diminishing.Even in the USA.

 

[trevella]

Looking at Australia's figures only 58 covid deaths were in people under 70.Which in my head comes out as 0.21% of our population.

Out by around three orders of magnitude.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But we live as part of a community, not in isolation within our specific age group or other grouping (what is the mortality rate for people with blonde hair? or people under 165cm tall?). Just because a person fits a particular profile that has lower risk does not mean they are less likely to continue the propagation of the virus or are any less likely to pass it onto someone who has a higher risk of death or serious illness.

My personal opinion is that the view that one does not need to be vaccinated on the basis that they are unlikely to die if they get the disease is being very selfish and inconsiderate of the more vulnerable members in our community. And there are many examples of young, previously healthy people who die or become very seriously ill with COVID-19.

I can't imagine the trauma I would feel if I passed the virus to my elderly mother, who passed it through her vulnerable contacts, resulting in one or more people dying, just because I thought I was unlikely to die and hence do not require to be vaccinated! While I may fit the profile of a low-risk person (due to my age, no previous health issues), I and everyone else in the world fit the exact profile of someone who can catch and transmit the virus to others.

Indeed. Most of the previous discussion in this thread mirrored your thoughts. However the latter part of the thread considered the outcomes of the trials in that they really don't know if it will stop infection and transmission. The drug companies are almost certain however that it will reduce the severity if you catch it.

On that basis some have argued it is irrelevant if some people - the young, or those who are opposed to vaccines - don't want the vaccine because they could still pass the virus on: what's important is that the vulnerable are vaccinated so they don't get so sick they die.

I guess we'll have to wait and see the data on whether the vaccines actually prevent infection. Although that may be a moot point anyway if those looking to travel are faced with a mandatory requirement to be vaccinated before they are allowed in to where they are going.

 

[Ric]

As an aside, is there any info, official or otherwise, that when you actually got a vaccine shot together with "proof", can you actually travel without having to go into 14 days hotel quarantine?

 

[drron]

Out by around three orders of magnitude.

Yes meant of covid cases.

 

[trevella]

As an aside, is there any info, official or otherwise, that when you actually got a vaccine shot together with "proof", can you actually travel without having to go into 14 days hotel quarantine?

No you can’t, and won’t be able to for some time.

The Australian government is working under the assumption that departures might be freed up somewhat by around this time next year, and I see no prospect whatsoever of that being brought forward and every possibility of it being pushed out.

I wish journalists would push them a little harder to announce their intentions, but the first most people will hear of it is when QF starts cancelling their 2H 2021 flights.

 

[Ric]

I was thinking more of entering Oz with a vaccine rather departing....
The 14 days in hotel quarantine scares the $$$$ out of me! And you wouldn't know which hotel until you arrive!

 

[trevella]

was thinking more of entering Oz with a vaccine rather departing....

They kind of go together from a policy perspective.

The rosiest scenario I have heard at the government level is leaving for a 2021 overseas Xmas (after three more three-month extensions of the travel ban) and coming back without hotel quarantine in 2022. But that won’t happen.

 

[oznflfan]

No you can’t, and won’t be able to for some time.

The Australian government is working under the assumption that departures might be freed up somewhat by around this time next year, and I see no prospect whatsoever of that being brought forward and every possibility of it being pushed out.

I wish journalists would push them a little harder to announce their intentions, but the first most people will hear of it is when QF starts cancelling their 2H 2021 flights.

Agree with everything you stated, thinking mid September 2021 as best case scenario. Government won't want to give any false impressions on this matter so they will talk around in circles until 2H of 2021.

Hope for us, and Ric as returning Australian, may be end of 2021, if vaccinated, can do home quarantine. Maybe test on arrival, 7 days home quarantine, then test after 7 days and you're free. I would be OK with that.

Ric, I would be too, they may have lifted their game, but initially quarantine hotels we giving miserable small breakfast, Lunch and dinner. Guests where complaining of food deprivation.

Post automatically merged: Dec 23, 2020

They kind of go together from a policy perspective.

The rosiest scenario I have heard at the government level is leaving for a 2021 overseas Xmas (after three more three-month extensions of the travel ban) and coming back without hotel quarantine in 2022. But that won’t happen.

It has too, otherwise no international travel. Can't block us forever.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

But we live as part of a community, not in isolation within our specific age group

Exactly. The whole Aussie mateship ethos is that you look after everyone and not just oneself.

And I am very attached to my elderly parents! Not that I am a spring chicken myself.

Why I highlighted the age banding though is that some people do think that way, as in I personally am not at high risk and so that is all that matters.

 

[trevella]

It has too, otherwise no international travel. Can't block us forever.

I didn’t say forever, just not early in 2022 for anything like casual travel. On top of everything else imagine the political maneuvering that will be required when Australia and a very small number of other nations are watching their infections and deaths rise while the rest of the world is seeing huge improvements.

“We’d like to let you all come and go, but sorry, we’re just not vaccinated enough yet. Maybe in another three months?”

Rinse and repeat.

 

[Ric]

Ric, I would be too, they may have lifted their game, but initially quarantine hotels we giving miserable small breakfast, Lunch and dinner. Guests where complaining of food deprivation.


.

Howard Springs looking more palatable...