Wind Generation and the Electricity Grid

[wandering_fred]

One might note that the LPG (eg those 9kg bottles) is extracted before the LNG is exported. Or at least it is supposed to be.

A pipeline which is primarily propane has a number of issues although the heat content per cubic meter is somewhat higher than the mixture of methane and ethane which normally makes up NG

Just wandering

Fred

 

[Hvr]

So what did South Australian's use before candles?


Electricity!

 

[RAM]

Thought a before and after snapshot (using the high power day from Feb) may be instructive now that Hazelwood is nearly (or effectively) zero generation.


and as of today at the same time...


Now to blow away some of the smoke and polish the mirrors...

Hazelwood had a 1,600 MW capacity but virtually never (both due to old age & risk of damage) operated at 100%. Seemed to average in the mid to high 70% range the bulk of the time (95%+).

• Brown coal is the cheapest fossil fuel to operate.
• Black coal is somewhat more expensive and gas - well in some cases a gas-fired power station makes more money selling its contracted gas off-take into the national market, say to Qld LNG plants. Not saying that they ARE doing this...
• The Snowy scheme produces 95%+ of its power by recycling the water (pumping it up from lower reservoir to the upper reservoir) - so it buys 150% of the power it produces. Nearly all (yes you guessed it it was going to be another figure with a 9 in front of it) comes from the La Trobe Valley generation although a minuscule amount comes from SA wind occasionally (has to make its way through two interconnectors AND have capacity available that the La Trobe generators are not hogging).
• Have another look at the figures above.

The drop in La Trobe Valley production (Feb to today) is over 2,100 MW of which Hazelwood at best would explain 1,300 MW of the difference. So why are the remaining brown coal plants running at over 800 MW lower when they are the least cost fossil (and pumped hydro) producers?

Gaming the prices again perhaps?

Now have a look at the contribution from the Snowy (NSW).

• 78 MW today and 539 MW in Feb - would appear to indicate that they. at least are acting rationally given their cost is at least 150% that of Brown coal operators.

Queensland (the 2 Govt owned generators) have 8,400 MW of black coal-fired power stations, and over 3,400 MW of gas (mainly from coal seam). I've posted a few items here previously, including official Fed Govt reports that the Qld Govt companies were gaming the system to force prices (profits) up by over $170 million in one 6 month period alone.

Now have a look at what they were doing on the peak day in Feb and today.

For the highest demand day of the year (Feb) and today (one of the lowest due to the aftermath of the cyclone) - the Qld Govt gas plants are producing virtually the same. Now gas is, repeating myself once again, FAR more expensive than any coal plant. I wonder if the cable from South to North Qld is being maxed out yet again (referenced in Fed Govt report into $170m gouging event) so that NSW generators cannot play the game?

• Qld Gas Feb...........1,350 MW
• Qld Gas Today........1,398 MW

• NSW Gas Feb.........1,093 MW
• NSW Gas Today........ 362 MW

IN 2014/15 there was much written about all the excess generating capacity in the predominantly East coast connected system. Many coal stations were barely breaking even let alone making their traditional profits. That is what has been behind the coal plant closures - they have been losing money AND maintenance costs are skyrocketing due to the band-aids on the band-aids on the band-aids. It is hard enough trying to get a replacement part for a 1982 Commodore, try getting parts for a 1956 turbine and cooling plant.

Household roof-top solar panels had totally eliminated the traditional daytime peak that saw higher prices (wholesale) between 11am and 3pm 5 days a week, 51 weeks a year (Xmas/New Year the exception).

I'd have loved to be a fly-on-the-wall at the power conferences and 'emergency' briefing sessions held in that period. Totally coincidentally, the way the wholesale market seemed to operate changed from August 2015.

First in little 'baby steps' as high priced seemingly unexplainable (by past events) periods of super high prices became more common before spreading a bit like a virus through 2016 and now 2017 to see these 'max profit' events happening when there is over 6,000 MW of coal and gas fired capacity sitting idle.

Even being exacerbated by gas peaking plants mysteriously shutting down 100% within seconds of an unexpected (so the official reports state) event at another same-state based generator. 262 pages on the Torren explosion and the Pelican Point shut-down cause is OFFICIALLY unknown. What is known is that the power price spiked more than 8 - fold and the remaining generators profited more in the subsequent immediate period than they had in the previous few days. Did you know that the Pelican Point owner also owns Hazelwood and one of the Loy Yang brown coal plants? Serendipitous!

I wonder if they also buy lotto tickets?

Anyone getting an idea why the SA Govt had announced they are going to put in 5 x 50 MW Gas plants + battery storage close to major power demand locations in SA?

I wonder who is going to blink first? Will we EVER see more than one of these new 'chicken' plants built?

 

[RAM]

A report on exactly how two generators 'gamed' the system to ensure another 'super profit period'. Flush out competitors by bidding to supply power at a negative price of $1,000 per MWh.

Yes, you read it correctly, they paid (not received money for generating but PAID to be able to generate) $1,000 per MWh they were producing. So more responsible (or co-operating generators) cut production and then next 5 minutes the 'gamers' switched to charging $13,400 or $14,000 respectively.

Increase the price by a factor of nearly 40 times. Not a bad increase from $45 a MWh is it?
So profit increased by factor of approx 400x aka consumers were gouged yet again.

Have you seen this on the front page of any newspaper or on the ABC?

Wonder why not?


How to slash electricity prices ... in just five minutes : Renew Economy

A perfect example of exactly how the market is being played by the fossil fuel generators was revealed in a new report from the Australian Energy Regulator this week. It is hard to find another more obvious reason for a change in the rules.
It occurred on February 2, in Queensland, when the Callide C and Alinta’s Braemar A power stations rebid significant amounts of capacity and prices jumped to $13,400/MWh and above in one five minute period.
Five minutes later, the price was back down again as the market was flooded with capacity that suddenly became available. Generators were so desperate to get some of the action that they bid the prices down to minus $1,000/MWh, (see table bottom) knowing that they were guaranteed a price of $1,740/MWh set by the first five minute period.

 

[SFSC]

When the (then) National Electricity Market was launched I can recall someone positing that it was more likely to be influenced in the long run by the guiding hand of Alexander Portnoy than that of Adam Smith.

 

[whatmeworry]

When the (then) National Electricity Market was launched I can recall someone positing that it was more likely to be influenced in the long run by the guiding hand of Alexander Portnoy than that of Adam Smith.

Or Ayn Rand.

 

[RooFlyer]

<snip>

Increase the price by a factor of nearly 40 times. Not a bad increase from $45 a MWh is it?
So profit increased by factor of approx 400x aka consumers were gouged yet again.

Have you seen this on the front page of any newspaper or on the ABC?

Wonder why not?<snip>

I'll bite - why haven't we heard about this on the ABC?

On a different tack ... how much longer can we resist damming the Gordon River here in Tas (below its junction with the Franklin River) for clean, green, base load, renewable 'carbon' free electricity?

 

[RAM]

I'll bite - why haven't we heard about this on the ABC?

The ABC seems to have become the flag bearer for anti-wind and anti-solar. They still report 'fake' news and studiously ignore all of the NER reports stating that various State Govt and private generators are rorting the system.

Perhaps this is the new ABC way of 'balance' - Q&A on one side and anti-renewables on the other...

On a different tack ... how much longer can we resist damming the Gordon River here in Tas (below its junction with the Franklin River) for clean, green, base load, renewable 'carbon' free electricity?

Building the Franklin dam is not likely to be cost competitive vs other projects anymore. Certainly if it was a revised scheme with upper and lower reservoirs then it would not be a 'green' project due to the power required to pump water back up is 150% of what gets generated by it going back down (approx 67% efficiency at best).

It would also require another BassLink to be built and the incumbent transmission losses for the distance covered.

As 'peak' generators both hydro and gas has around a 15 to 20 minute delay from signal to produce to actually being able to contribute any significant power. The various battery systems now available can provide 100% of their max output in under a second from the signal requirement.

For a baseload system then the (doomed to failure by association) Snowy 2.0 is virtually an 'all your eggs in one basket' idea that would require several (at a minimum) new transmission lines to be built to ensure one accident did not take the whole thing off-line.

Given the Singaporean Govt and Chinese Govt now own big slices of Australia's transmission systems (guess where the owner of BassLink is? Which Govt owns 1/3rd and controls the ownership vehicle?) they do not want to see a more efficient nor productive Australian system as it is against their own national interests.

As an aside, did you know that the Chinese Govt has been buying up factories, blast furnaces and smelters in countries around the world and once the 'stand still' agreements lapse then dismantle them and shipped them back to China to reverse engineer? One blast furnace from the US they bought for $30m, and shipped back over 250,000 tons back to China thus circumventing the patents on all the various equipment.

Guess who did the same to BHP's HiSmelt plant which has now been increased in size in China by a factor of 4?

 

[drron]

People love conspiracy stories.But a lot of gas power is owned by those with significant renewable projects such as AGL.
And why if solar and wind power is so much cheaper than baseload coal power to we have to subsidise renewables and penalise coal stations?
Coal stations run most efficiently so cheaper when in continuous use.Why also was Hazelwood closed with 5 months notice-it takes much longer to commission replacement generation whether renewable or not.

Then there is Tesla's magic battery saviour for South Australia.Unfortunately Tesla doesn't have a 100 Mw system in operation.One by AES in California is due to come on line in 2021.A 100MW battery storage + 100MW solar farm has been proposed for SA and was supposed to be online by 2018 but Victoria in February said they will have Australia's largest battery storage unit in a press release in Feb this year.it will be 20MW.Tenders were being called then.

 

[RAM]

People love conspiracy stories.But a lot of gas power is owned by those with significant renewable projects such as AGL.
And why if solar and wind power is so much cheaper than baseload coal power to we have to subsidise renewables and penalise coal stations?
Coal stations run most efficiently so cheaper when in continuous use.Why also was Hazelwood closed with 5 months notice-it takes much longer to commission replacement generation whether renewable or not.

Not sure whether you call findings by the National regulator that certain providers 'gamed' the market or an audit called for by a State Govt which found in a 5 month period tow generators gamed $173m from their state - conspiracy theories?

It is a fact that selling at a price 40x higher than normal generates profits that are up to 200x larger AND producing 75% your normal capacity at these super-normal profits is far more 'bonus' enhancing than 100% of capacity at 1/200th the level of profits.

That the various State Govts sold off the generators (or turned them into profit maximising entities as in Qld) with no 'public good' requirement to operate in such a way as to not game the system - is also a fact.

The only conspiracy around are the operators who have unexplained outages within seconds of another generator. Despite a three week investigation the NER had no answer why Pelican Point shut down but it did result in Hazelwood and Loy Yang B earning 160x and 130x their normal profits for an extended period. just a coincidence Pelican Point had the same owner.

On a new build basis (or even cost of refurbishment for old stations aka Hazelwood) PV and wind are cheaper all costs included. Go back to 2013/14 when the amount of wind and solar was around half or less of today's capacity - and then (pre-gaming beginning) the brown and black coal generators were ALL stating they were operating at or below break-even and had no funds to maintain production capacity. That is they were refusing to spend any Capex on maintenance above emergency requirements.

On Tesla - it is only 'a magic saviour' (your words not mine nor anyone else's) where it would be in a position if used just 30 times a year for 30 minutes to:

1. Pay itself off in just a few years
2. Cut wholesale electricity costs in SA by around $400m per annum by eliminating the ability to game the system as is the current process
3. Still have enough cycles, @ 30/year to run for over 100 more years

It is not about it being used daily - more the threat of it being available to offset any attempts to jack up prices.

BTW - please explain why two generators bid -$1,000 to supply 250+ MWh in one 5 minute period, then the next 5 minute period they bid +$14,000 (or thereabouts) followed by -$1,000/MWh in the 3rd 5 minute period? No conspiracy just an explanation required - something the regulator could not explain themselves nor did the generators.

 

[drron]

Again if solar is so much cheaper to build and produce cheaper electricity why do we need to have a RET scheme and subsidise both the building and production of solar energy.
Tesla's "magic saviour" is my attempt at sarcasm as Tesla does not have a 100MW battery storage unit that is working only a plan by 2020.
The real problem,as often is the case,is the Government has interfered in the Electricity market with an RET scheme in place since 2001.It is not a level playing field.
Non RE power stations have to buy RE certificates or pay a penalty for the energy they supply.So a double whammy for them.

So you could say the regulator is the problem rather than the solution.

 

[RooFlyer]

The ABC seems to have become the flag bearer for anti-wind and anti-solar. They still report 'fake' news and studiously ignore all of the NER reports stating that various State Govt and private generators are rorting the system.

Perhaps this is the new ABC way of 'balance' - Q&A on one side and anti-renewables on the other...
<snip>?

Shirley you can't be serious. ABC anti wind, anti solar? The greenie collective that inhabits their ABC would be in a collective paroxysm if they read that! The refusal to air stories on chopped up eagles here in Tasmania I think puts paid to the 'anti wind' contention, at least.

I think rather than a conspiracy, think stuff up, or incompetence. I don't think the literary skills of the just-out-of-Uni (or TAFE) ABC environmental crusaders would be up to reading, let alone understanding a NER report . Just look at their business 'analysis' of Adani the other night. Oooooh! Tax haven! Play the sinister music ...

Building the Franklin dam is not likely to be cost competitive vs other projects anymore. Certainly if it was a revised scheme with upper and lower reservoirs then it would not be a 'green' project due to the power required to pump water back up is 150% of what gets generated by it going back down (approx 67% efficiency at best).
<snip>

Apologies, I was being a bit facetious about the Gordon below Franklin being revived. The Commonwealth might want their economic compensation monies back if it did go ahead; that's after they sent the RAAF to spy on us again, of course! The greenies don't regard ANY hydro scheme as being 'Green'. And I don't believe the 'pump water back up' was ever a scenario. There's quite a lot of rain on the West Coast (usually) and the GBF impoundment was to be downstream from the Gordon dam and the Lake Gordon impoundment.

Given the Singaporean Govt and Chinese Govt now own big slices of Australia's transmission systems (guess where the owner of BassLink is? Which Govt owns 1/3rd and controls the ownership vehicle?) they do not want to see a more efficient nor productive Australian system as it is against their own national interests.
<snip>?

Oh, we know who owns BassLink all right ... don't you worry about that! When it failed last year, the Tas Govt was more-or-less relying on the company's reports to the Singapore Stock Exchange for information.

I always read your analyses, and enjoy them very much, and often learn a bit, but the conspiracies are getting in the way of some sensibility these days.

 

[Hvr]

First coal-free day in Britain since Industrial Revolution - BBC News

Britain went a full day without using coal to generate electricity for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the National Grid says.


The energy provider said Friday's lack of coal usage was a "watershed" moment.

Britain's longest continuous energy period without coal until now was 19 hours - first achieved last May, and again on Thursday.


The government plans to phase out Britain's last plants by 2025 in order to cut carbon emissions.
Friday is thought to be the first time the nation has not used coal to generate electricity since the world's first centralised public coal-fired generator opened in 1882, at Holborn Viaduct in London.

And here in Australia our government is looking to give billions to a dodgy Indian company to create a new coal mine with no economic benefit and way too much pollution.

 

[RooFlyer]

"Give billions" - untrue
"No economic benefit" - untrue
"Dodgy Indian company" - an opinion, but I'd like to know how it's 'dodgy' ( I think you've been watching the totally naive ABC business reporting kiddies a bit much)
"way too much pollution" - subjective, but how much pollution will the mine create?

As you sit there with all the luxuries and comforts of a fully industrialised country/ economy, you may want to reflect on the millions of Indians who are without electricity, and many of whome will benefit from the power this coal will generate.

Did you see the climate change billionaire Al Gore trying to tell the Bangla Desh Prime Minister she shouldn't burn coal to provide electricity to her poverty stricken nation? Simply disgraceful- but he got taken down OK.

Or should they all just eat cake?

 

[TheRealTMA]

"Give billions" - untrue
"No economic benefit" - untrue
"Dodgy Indian company" - an opinion, but I'd like to know how it's 'dodgy' ( I think you've been watching the totally naive ABC business reporting kiddies a bit much)
"way too much pollution" - subjective, but how much pollution will the mine create?

As you sit there with all the luxuries and comforts of a fully industrialised country/ economy, you may want to reflect on the millions of Indians who are without electricity, and many of whome will benefit from the power this coal will generate.

Did you see the climate change billionaire Al Gore trying to tell the Bangla Desh Prime Minister she shouldn't burn coal to provide electricity to her poverty stricken nation? Simply disgraceful- but he got taken down OK.

Or should they all just eat cake?

Irrespective of the other dubious arguments, it's really appalling that there's this line that the Adani coal will produce power to supply millions of Indians and raise them out of poverty. It's completely rubbish. The Adani power will make little difference to them, if the transmission lin s ever reach them that is. India needs distributed power production not one massive new power station.

 

[RooFlyer]

I appreciate you didn't ascribe the "appalling line" to me (as of course I didn't make it), but the argument remains - just about all of the people protesting about mining of coal bound for India and other third world countries are appalling hypocrites. They live very happily and comfortably in their mainly coal generated electricity world, driving their petrol fuelled cars, flying to Climate Change conferences in gassy planes (the Australian Dept 'Climate Change' flew 10 people First Class to the one in Cancun, and hoards more in Business Class), while trying to deny people living in poverty the opportunity to raise themselves up to 1/10 of what we in Australia have.

The sight of billionaire Al Gore purporting to lecture the Bangla Deshi prime Minister was, not to put too fine a point on it, disgusting.

 

[TheRealTMA]

I appreciate you didn't ascribe the "appalling line" to me (as of course I didn't make it), but the argument remains - just about all of the people protesting about mining of coal bound for India and other third world countries are appalling hypocrites. They live very happily and comfortably in their mainly coal generated electricity world, driving their petrol fuelled cars, flying to Climate Change conferences in gassy planes (the Australian Dept 'Climate Change' flew 10 people First Class to the one in Cancun, and hoards more in Business Class), while trying to deny people living in poverty the opportunity to raise themselves up to 1/10 of what we in Australia have.

The sight of billionaire Al Gore purporting to lecture the Bangla Deshi prime Minister was, not to put too fine a point on it, disgusting.

And I thought I worded it carefully!

 

[wandering_fred]

Alas, the most useful solution would probably accept that there needs to a combination of many solutions. Some of which will aggravate at least one side of the current discussion.

OECD countries need better distribution systems that reflect the changing nature of electricity generation. The cost of some of the system network changes will be more than the cost of intermediate term non-renewable generation (the efficiency of which has improved greatly over the last 20 years). But will we see a HVDC power cable from Norseman to Port Augusta to allow WA wind and solar to support eastern peak usage? Doubtful.
Developing countries need a distribution system (which in many (most) locations currently doesn't exist in adequate form). But it is likely that the system which eventually is created will reflect a generation methodology which caters far more to localized generation in a combination of renewables and non-renewables.

By all means, everyone should continue to highlight the benefits of their preferred solution. It may be PART of the final solution. Time will tell.

Disclaimer: I have grid-connected PV panels. They work well in the summer, less well in the winter. I wish a battery and controller were financially justifiable. At the moment, even with a minimal set of batteries, the changeover costs would never be recovered.

Just wandering

Fred

 

[RAM]

Out of interest what would your avg daily summer generation be and winter generation be? Also what are your avg summer and winter use from the grid?

When I did the calculations late last year given our difference in the FIT paid (10 cents) and the cost for grid power (just over 30 cents) - the numbers came out virtually break-even.

It does depend on what discount rate you use and the life you give to the battery (based on your likely experience/use in cycles per day or part thereof) as well as assumption on your panels and inverter (which may need to be replaced).

What I found interesting is that in many of the 'quoted' analyses that solar panels are given a ZERO generation ability after 20 years when most are warranted to produce at 80% of named capacity. When we had interest rates in the low teens then the present value of the earnings stream from years 20 onwards was not significant. Today with long term rates around 3 to 4% (depending whether you look at what you can actually get vs market rates available to wholesale investors) - the 80% or so generation earnings stream at a price that has faced 20 years of annual increases approved by IPART - is significant. Some info from the UNSW Center for Photovoltaic research suggests that not only are panels from the 1970s still generating significantly above 50% but panels from subsequent generations are holding up just as well if not better in continuing to produce power although now in their late 20s or 30s respectively.

Conversely, 'cheap' or 'unbeatable' deals on panels in the last 5 years by some (often no longer operating under that name) installers have failed.

Long story short, I suspect that the speed with which PV + batteries become a compelling proposition will be measured in months not years. This is especially so if Tesla's roof tiles live up to the launch promises. Given the historical guide - timeline too optimistic but tech claims accurate - 2018/19 could be a very trying time for the incumbent RPP gentraders and generators.

 

[wandering_fred]

Note billing is bi-monthly numbers in kwh units per month. FIT is ~$0.08 and grid price ~$0.25 and 4kw panels installed Dec 2012.
Summer 2016 generated ~500
Summer 2017 generated ~600
Winter under 300
Local consumption ~200 remainder fed to grid
Grid usage summer ~250 -- winter ~600 (inverters are used to supplement wood heater)

I would likely "break even" during the summers with another 500w installed (assuming no serious price increases). Summer of 2016 was more cloudy/rainy and generation reflected this compared with 2015 or 2017.

Off the cuff pricing for a battery / grid interactive controller here is about $8000. This may include slightly higher installation costs to mitigate the "rural 480" grid connection as installed in WA and batteries are extra.

Can we have more examples of existing installations?

Just wandering

Fred