2016 US Presidential Election and Fallout

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Re: The totally off-topic thread

vetrade said:
Only if you panicked and sold. The SPI was at 5300 at midday today and plunged to around 5030 when a Trump win looked likely. It is now back to around 5220 so it's on par with where it's been trading in the last week or more. Expect it to move to a new (recent) high of 5400 within days. So you should thank Donald Trump when your super kicks up above where it was this morning.

The S&P 500 (futures) went down to 2030 today but already back to 2100 - only 40 points off overall. It too will rise further.

Gold was rising last week but it will fall now that the result is known and certainty of President achieved. Will be back to 1270 in no time. Gold stocks will fall along with that. History is a great teacher for those who care to look it up.
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You are partially right in the first bit from my point of view. I was a bit harsh in my first assessment. I saw the traders bid the market up in the past couple of days and I thought "that's going to make the fall look worse" ... just like before and after the Brexit vote. I'm Ok with the market in the medium term, but anything that causes volatility only helps the traders, not the long term investors.

Been working with gold (mining it and/or investing in it or banking it) all my working life (how's that for history :)); I think your assessment as to the trends is flawed. After the Indian wedding market, global risk is the biggest driver of gold pricing. I may sell some golds tomorrow if they kick up a bit more beyond the +3% to +8% today
 
Re: The totally off-topic thread

whatmeworry said:
That moment when your in parliament and you realise Trump is going to win.

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Love to have a camera ready when Trump feeds Shorten his "Trump ... barking mad ..." comment. ;)
 
Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

It was good to see the Greens raising important issues in the NSW Parliament though ;) :p
""It is great that all sides of Australian politics, from conservatives to Liberals to Greens, agree that Donald Trump is a revolting slug and completely unfit for public office," Mr Buckingham said after the vote was passed.

His next ESTA might be a tad tricky :lol:

NSW Parliament Decides
 
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

I wonder if Bernie will run in 2020? Would be 78.

Polling shows Bernie would have won if the Democrats let him run.

A poll by NBC News-Wall Street Journal on May 15 said Ms Clitnon would beat Mr Trump by three points, but said Mr Sanders would win by 15 points.
A CBS News-New York Times on May 3 gave Ms Clinton a six point advantage over Mr Trump, but said Mr Sanders would win by 13 points.
At the same time, Fox News said Ms Clinton would lose to Ms Clinton by three points, but said Mr Sanders would win by four.
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Donald Trump would have lost US election if Bernie Sanders had been the candidate | The Independent

I guess we wait and see if Trump does something impeachable.
 
Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

The footage showing the grief on the faces of those at the Clinton event was amazing - their tears were my elixir.

Pretty poor form for Clinton not to give a concession speech and thank her supporters for waiting around and working so hard for her though.
 
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

01478701214.jpg

I am unfortunately stateside. I have to say this. It's not funny. It's really happened. Thank goodness I have my Australian visa sorted
 
Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

I've not been a Trump fan. Nevertheless I don't think his policies will be as bad as people (or indeed as he) made out. The guy flip flops a lot and just because he said he was going to put in all these protectionist measures, build walls, keep out Muslims etc doesn't actually mean he'll go through with such policies.

We all know Politicians lie to win office... the biggest concern remains in my mind is not his policies but is personality. What happens when China, Putin or someone else baits him, do they get to reel him in hook, line and sinker? That is the scary bit. Let's hope the senate and house plus some good advisors keep his excesses in check.
 
Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Isochronous said:
Pretty poor form for Clinton not to give a concession speech and thank her supporters for waiting around and working so hard for her though.
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This is exactly why she is so disliked - she really doesn't care about anyone but herself, and everyone knows it. If only the Democrats had run another candidate ..... any other candidate .....
 
Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Making of Donald J Trump.

[video=youtube;bCo_XypJJus]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCo_XypJJus[/video]
 
Re: The totally off-topic thread

RooFlyer said:
You are partially right in the first bit from my point of view. I was a bit harsh in my first assessment. I saw the traders bid the market up in the past couple of days and I thought "that's going to make the fall look worse" ... just like before and after the Brexit vote. I'm Ok with the market in the medium term, but anything that causes volatility only helps the traders, not the long term investors.

Been working with gold (mining it and/or investing in it or banking it) all my working life (how's that for history :)); I think your assessment as to the trends is flawed. After the Indian wedding market, global risk is the biggest driver of gold pricing. I may sell some golds tomorrow if they kick up a bit more beyond the +3% to +8% today
Click to expand...

How's that gold price looking now, RooFlyer? FYI it's now trading at $US1272 - DOWN around 50 bucks since yesterday. So when you say I was only partially right I guess I do have to accept you were right - after all my prediction of 1270 was soooooo far off the mark - by 2 bucks. In my defence it WILL get to 1270 very soon! ;) So anyone waiting for gold to go UP (i.e. you) has missed the boat until some other world event causes it to rise again.

As for my other predictions..............S&P500 UP overnight to around a 6 week HIGH. SPI (ASX200) futures up to over 5300 after bottoming out at 5030 yesterday - and on their way to 5400, probably today or tomorrow.

You may be experienced in the gold/banking sector but you could learn much from the predictability of human and markets' behaviours.
 
Re: The totally off-topic thread

Abdul_A350 said:
Volatility can make anyone look correct for a little while.
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You clearly have no understanding of what you have commented about. The point is that volatility and how people and markets behave in the face of it enables people who do understand it to predict what is likely to happen in a particular scenario where uncertainty causes markets to react before a particular event. Once the uncertainty no longer exists i.e. either Trump or Clinton wins, the markets revert to "business as usual".

Gold is the classic example of this - it moved up in the 7-10 days before the election and always had a high likelihood of dropping back to it's "status quo" position as soon as the election result was known i.e. uncertainty removed.
 
Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Isochronous said:
The footage showing the grief on the faces of those at the Clinton event was amazing - their tears were my elixir.

Pretty poor form for Clinton not to give a concession speech and thank her supporters for waiting around and working so hard for her though.
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Maybe she fainted again from a NEWmonia when the results became evident
 
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Re: The totally off-topic thread

If you think a 22bp jump in the 10y UST yield is business as usual, you obviously have not been looking at these things as long as I have.

Less than 24 hours after the results is not a particularly good time to be saying 'I told you so'.
 
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