380, is the end near

[Flying Fox]

Update from Airbus -

Airbus floats shutdown of A380 superjumbo production as orders stall

Summary - We need an EK order for 60 units to keep the line going for 10 yrs and EK need us to keep the line going in order to maintain resale values....

 

[jb747]

Agree, the quads are in their death throws. I am also curious what will happen to all the current A380's which no one wants. I suspect that airbus is not going to be the only company which is about to lose out big time on them.

Depreciate to nothing, and then off to the desert.

Emirates does not need more. I doubt that it ever needed the number that it has. It was always a niche aircraft, but the niche turned out to be smaller than expected.

 

[Flying Fox]

Yes I thought it was an interesting comment about the A380 resale values as I believe the leasing company for SQ's initial aircraft are having trouble finding homes for the birds. I would think that they are only work scrap value.

But in Airbus' position, you would have to say everything possible to support your business case.

 

[jb747]

Yes I thought it was an interesting comment about the A380 resale values as I believe the leasing company for SQ's initial aircraft are having trouble finding homes for the birds. I would think that they are only work scrap value.

But in Airbus' position, you would have to say everything possible to support your business case.

Sadly, in Airbus's case, I think a lot was driven by the idea of proving to the Americans that they were as good as them. Boeing never believed the projections for ultra large aircraft. Emirates though, seemed to have worked out a way of getting the US and Europeans citizens to pay for their aircraft.

If Airbus had put all of the 380 effort into the 350 and and an updated 330 they'd be sitting quite pretty. Boeing should have kept away from the 747-8. The 787 wasn't as successful a program as it should have been, and they've taken their eye right off the 777 game for too long. Their offerings at the small end of the range are pretty poor. The 737 is long past it's due date. They really need a modern 757.

 

[UP4014]

Airbus senior management and board sowing the seed with investors the end is nigh.

 

[codash1099]

Wishful thinking?

"We will never produce white-tails," he says. "But there are other potential customers beyond Emirates."

and

Airbus says A380 challenge in China is 'commercial'

 

[Isochronous]

Would be sad if A380 production ended.

 

[moa999]

EK just ordered another 36.
That will keep the line open

20 firm
16 options
Emirates orders 36 A380s worth US$ 16 billion

No engine manufacturer specified - presumably to keep the pressure on someone to develop a neo

 

[TheRealTMA]

EK just ordered another 36.
That will keep the line open

20 firm
16 options
Emirates orders 36 A380s worth US$ 16 billion

No engine manufacturer specified - presumably to keep the pressure on someone to develop a neo

Excellent. Love the EK 380s.

 

[marki]

A380 was better than a 747.

 

[jb747]

EK just ordered another 36.
That will keep the line open

20 firm
16 options
Emirates orders 36 A380s worth US$ 16 billion

No engine manufacturer specified - presumably to keep the pressure on someone to develop a neo

There is no chance whatsoever of there ever being an NEO. It's about much more than just engines. Neither of the engine makers is going to develop anything new for 36, or even 60 aircraft. This is all about getting the cheapest price. Given the bath both makers have taken with the 380, I could almost see them not bothering with tendering with even the standard engine.

Presumably Emirates will have gotten them for just about free (relatively anyway). I'll bet Airbus now have to deal with a bunch of second hand ones too. I'm sure we'll never get the details of the contract, but it would be interesting for sure.

 

[UP4014]

A380 was better than a 747.

A380s delivered 217 I'm not sure if it made the development cost back.
747s delivered 1500 plus and still plodding.

If you were a manufacturer which would you say was best. Depends on how you look at best.

The 747 is better than the 380. As a passenger I prefer the 747, aesthetically I also prefer the 747.

Matt

 

[moa999]

There is no chance whatsoever of there ever being an NEO.

Not in this order - it's simply kicking the can down the road stuff.
But the as I understand it the 380 engine at least in RR form is very closely related to the 787 and 350 products - at some point they will get new tech and that might be able to be transferred to the 380.

Combine that with a stretch, use of new materials (and I suspect 3x5x3 in Y) you get something that is competitive on a CASM basis.

I can't see EK doing this unless it ultimately results in better operating costs in the future, otherwise why not just purchase 50 777Xs

 

[Flying Fox]

Presumably Emirates will have gotten them for just about free (relatively anyway). I'll bet Airbus now have to deal with a bunch of second hand ones too. I'm sure we'll never get the details of the contract, but it would be interesting for sure.

I agree that EK would have received a super discount but are you suggesting that Airbus is taking some trade-ins?

If so, what will they do with them?

 

[dajop]

A380 was better than a 747.

The 747 is better than the 380. As a passenger I prefer the 747, aesthetically I also prefer the 747.

As far as operators go, LH and KE and their passengers are probably in the best position to compare A380 with its contemporary - the 747-800, as both operate them. It would be interesting to take a journey on the same carrier on both aircraft to make a fair comparison.

As for aesthetics, always in the eye of the beholder, but most would agree. I wonder though, if we'd all grown up with the A380 shape etched into our pysche whether it would be the other way around. It's pretty hard to overcome the familiarity factor and/or emotional attachement over decades. I guess would have to ask someone in their teens for an objective view!

 

[docjames]

The idea was for this order to keep the line viable at 5-6 per annum with the hope that eventually more orders from other carriers (<cough>China <cough>) flow.

Would be interesting if Airbus can get the economics sufficient to allow for replacement of say 3-4x737/A320 sized aircraft on major routes.

 

[jb747]

I did once suggest a solution to the aesthetics. Just paint a Concorde on each side... Sadly my fleet manager thought I was joking.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The idea was for this order to keep the line viable at 5-6 per annum with the hope that eventually more orders from other carriers (<cough>China <cough>) flow.

Would be interesting if Airbus can get the economics sufficient to allow for replacement of say 3-4x737/A320 sized aircraft on major routes.

as jb has pointed out before that whole "more capacity" thing is a bit of a misnomer anyway due to the gaps required

I suspect there will be a natural swing back to bigger capacity on high demand routes where airlines have now gone for frequency. But why the a380 for this when you could throw a high density 777 etc on it and then use that same aircraft to fly for 14 hours across whatever ocean you needed to. None of it really stacks up unless you have a huge fleet of them already and can build a business around keeping them (and others) maintained

 

[UP4014]

If so, what will they do with them?

If they go back to Airbus I would think maybe stripped then scrap, otherwise it will be like a used Alfa Romeo.

The airline or bank of course may want it parked and depreciated in the usual aircraft fashion. That will save a hit on the first to be parked up but will lower the market value faster on all those remaining.

It's possibly best as well for Airbus to take it back to avoid an episode of air crash investigation west Africa.

Matt

 

[TheRealTMA]

Interesting article on SYD airport in papers on how the 380 flights have generated record business for them.

A380 boom delivers Sydney Airport record