A380 Production Sadness

[cove]

There is no big resale value for 10 year old A380s so that makes it less likely that airlines will want more in their fleets.

 

[harvyk]

There is no big resale value for 10 year old A380s so that makes it less likely that airlines will want more in their fleets.

From the articles I've been reading there is no resale value full stop. The airlines which wanted them as pax planes have already brought them new, and from what I've read A380's are not good freighters at all (unlike the B747 which had freighter conversion in mind from the very beginning of the design)

So it's likely we're about to start seeing A380's in bone yards from a very early stage.

 

[jb747]

Would the new winglets they're proposing for greater efficiency reduce wake turbulence and hence reduce separation requirements?

Trivial effect....which could be either way.

The airlines will really expect this to be a post production offering. They aren't going to spend $400 million just to get something that should have been there in the first place, and which offers marginal improvements.

 

[serfty]

... (unlike the B747 which had freighter conversion in mind from the very beginning of the design)

...

A bit of chicken and egg here. I believe the aircraft's original design was a freighter

 

[Berlin]

The lack of enthusiasm for A380-class aircraft is IMHO a short-sighted problem. Give it ten years and the fundamental problems of "slots" will truly come to bite.

That's exactly what I am thinking too. Let's just hope that the A380 project can stay alive that long because otherwise it would be a real shame!

 

[Quickstatus]

Even if you don't like the aircraft, this isn't good news for anyone.

Its just another aircraft that gets you from airport A to airport B. Many people will not even know what aircraft they are on. (An indication that they did not read the passenger safety card)

 

[harvyk]

A bit of chicken and egg here. I believe the aircraft's original design was a freighter

A bit of everything, they originally designed it as a freighter for the US military, when the military designed to go with another design the decided to continue building the 747 as a pax plane. They however believed that super sonic transport was the way of the future so they weren't expecting to sell more than a couple of hundred before the SST's took over. So they designed the pax version so it could easily be turned into a freighter when SST became mainstream as they figured freight could probably still travel at sub-sonic speeds and turn a profit.

Of course SST's never became main stream and the rest is history.

Of course the A380 never had this sort of foresight as they assumed the future of pax transport belonged to the heavies, as the 747 was the popular choice at the time.

 

[APAC747]

I love travelling on the A380 and always try to select flights (within reason) where it is used.

Presumably though, even if production were to come to a grinding halt in a few years' time (not that this is being suggested), the existing fleet will still be around to enjoy for a couple of decades.

 

[harvyk]

I love travelling on the A380 and always try to select flights (within reason) where it is used.

Presumably though, even if production were to come to a grinding halt in a few years' time (not that this is being suggested), the existing fleet will still be around to enjoy for a couple of decades.

That's a big maybe, quite a few of the high turnover carriers for example SQ are already looking at selling their current A380's, but can't find buyers. I guess the answer will be how happy the current carriers are with running older planes. Some carriers like SQ are less likely to do so, others like QF are likely to hold onto theirs for quite some time.

So whilst you will still be able to find A380 flights in the future, the current fleet is likely to be reduced at a far faster rate than other airline types which typically flow from the tier 1's to the tier 2 carriers before finally entering freight service.

 

[APAC747]

That's a big maybe, quite a few of the high turnover carriers for example SQ are already looking at selling their current A380's, but can't find buyers. I guess the answer will be how happy the current carriers are with running older planes. Some carriers like SQ are less likely to do so, others like QF are likely to hold onto theirs for quite some time.

So whilst you will still be able to find A380 flights in the future, the current fleet is likely to be reduced at a far faster rate than other airline types which typically flow from the tier 1's to the tier 2 carriers before finally entering freight service.

Yes, it will be interesting to see how quickly SQ can/will divest itself of the 14 units that are not leased. Given Emirates has taken such a massive hedge on the A380, I'm fairly confident my presumed timeline will apply to anyone flying EK

 

[Berlin]

I love travelling on the A380 and always try to select flights (within reason) where it is used.

Me too! And I know of a lot of far less airplane-geeky people who do the same, all of them flying in J usually. So it's hard for me to reconcile this in my head with the apparent lack of efficiency of this plane. I'm just hoping that the big bird will have a bright future ahead, once airlines realize that there will always be a severe shortage of slots at certain airports.

 

[Quickstatus]

Me too! And I know of a lot of far less airplane-geeky people who do the same, all of them flying in J usually. So it's hard for me to reconcile this in my head with the apparent lack of efficiency of this plane. I'm just hoping that the big bird will have a bright future ahead, once airlines realize that there will always be a severe shortage of slots at certain airports.

Yes at CERTAIN airports. Hub to Hub aka EK sure but Boeing was ultimately correct in that point to point wins out.
Bigger did not mean better unfortunately for Airbus.
Hubs slot constrained?. Lets build a secondary airport closer to where people want to ultimately go.

Maybe A380 as some say was ahead of its time...

 

[Berlin]

Maybe A380 as some say was ahead of its time...

Yep, that's what I meant. It will have his time if Airbus isn't canning the entire project too early. Airspace is only getting more and more constricted and building new airports is not as easy either in many places.

 

[Quickstatus]

Yep, that's what I meant. It will have his time if Airbus isn't canning the entire project too early. Airspace is only getting more and more constricted and building new airports is not as easy either in many places.

Double the size does not mean it can carry twice the passengers for a slot.

 

[Flying Fox]

I love travelling on the A380 and always try to select flights (within reason) where it is used.

As do I. I find the A380 very comfortable.

Unfortunately I have yet to fly on a B747-8 or B787 or A350 as points of comparison.

My understanding is that A380 lessors are having problems finding a home for SQ's older A380s.

 

[Quickstatus]

MH tried to sell off all/some of its 6 A380 but could not find buyers. Now they are converting it to an all economy or economy lite 700 seat Muslim pilgrimage / religious charter aircraft.

 

[TomVexille]

That's a big maybe, quite a few of the high turnover carriers for example SQ are already looking at selling their current A380's, but can't find buyers. I guess the answer will be how happy the current carriers are with running older planes. Some carriers like SQ are less likely to do so, others like QF are likely to hold onto theirs for quite some time.

SQ will be returning their first A380 later this year IIRC and have already parked one up. I assume in preparation to return it.

 

[odysseus]

Me too! And I know of a lot of far less airplane-geeky people who do the same, all of them flying in J usually. So it's hard for me to reconcile this in my head with the apparent lack of efficiency of this plane. I'm just hoping that the big bird will have a bright future ahead, once airlines realize that there will always be a severe shortage of slots at certain airports.

I don't believe it's not efficient. It's just that it requires large loads (in absolute numbers) to have that efficiency. Whereas the more 'popular' planes for many airlines now have lower capacity so more flexibility to fly to secondary ports. Which just wouldn't have the volume to support the A380 load.

Hence, the choice of some lines to go for smaller planes to give more flexibility, and to operate more direct point to point flights.

I'd still like to see the airlines support the A380 though; just as they have different sizes for different destinations it doesn't mean that there's no use of the A380 for the main markets. There can be a home for both...

 

[Altair]

Yes, it will be interesting to see how quickly SQ can/will divest itself of the 14 units that are not leased. Given Emirates has taken such a massive hedge on the A380, I'm fairly confident my presumed timeline will apply to anyone flying EK

Well SQ are dropping the first 5 A380 that were part of the batch that were "handmade first 30 frames" due to production and design issues.
However according to Flight Global SIA to refurbish cabins of 14 A380.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) plans to retrofit 14 of its Airbus A380 aircraft
In an email response to FlightGlobal, the Star Alliance carrier says it expects to announce the timeline for the retrofit work by the end of the year.
While it did not give further details of the retrofit work, a local media report says that SIA will install new seats across all classes, as well as upgrade the in-flight entertainment system.
Meanwhile, first-class suites, which are currently located on the lower deck could be moved to the upper deck. The number of suites will be halved to six from 12.
The media report indicates that the new cabin configuration will also be used in five new A380s. Flight Fleets Analyzer shows that they will arrive between October 2017 and May 2018.

I love the A380 as a passenger even in economy....which I have not managed to travel in that cabin on the A380 yet, so I do hope it has a long future. I do wish QF gets more due to increased passenger patronage but as it faces lower loads and more competition I think it will join the boring twins only set.

 

[jb747]

Yep, that's what I meant. It will have his time if Airbus isn't canning the entire project too early. Airspace is only getting more and more constricted and building new airports is not as easy either in many places.

To be sufficiently efficient, it really needs a 747-800 or 787 level redesign. That will not happen. Simple numbers...the empty 747-400 weighs about 185 tonnes, and carries around 370 people in a reasonable configuration. An empty A380 weighs in at 285 tonnes empty, and carries about an extra 100 people in a similar configuration. Basically its empty weight is far too high for it to ever become 'efficient'. Lose 50 tonnes and it would work...but that's really not something that can be done with the current design. There will be lots of tweaks, but that's all they are.

As much as I like it (the 380), the reality is that the 787 and 350 are the future. I even have my doubts about the 777X.