A380 Production Sadness

[MEL_Traveller]

Off the top of my head I can think of BA, NH, QR and B0. Which is just a few, and they each only have a few aircraft in such a configuration

And previously SQ. But there are also configurations of 787s and 777s, particularly for japanese airlines, that have a small 100 seat (only) economy cabin. The rest is premium. AA transcon 321s have just 6 rows of 'standard' economy. The rest is MCE, business and first (102 pax total).

 

[TheBOSman]

Now a 747 - still havent been in one of these and sad I didnt get to do it.

QF will be one of, if not the, last airlines flying the 747-400 as a passenger aircraft due to their later model ER versions that they have. Those could fly another 10+ years easily. So, still plenty of time.

 

[cory]

And previously SQ. But there are also configurations of 787s and 777s, particularly for japanese airlines, that have a small 100 seat (only) economy cabin. The rest is premium. AA transcon 321s have just 6 rows of 'standard' economy. The rest is MCE, business and first (102 pax total).

You're comparing less than 0.1% of the total passenger configured planes currently flying. These planes are configured like this to specifically travel between business hubs where there is a high demand for premium seating.

The rest of the 99.9% of of passenger flights rely quite heavily on Y passengers. In fact, Y passengers who travel at last minute and end up having to pay for higher class Y fares, on a seat per area squared basis are worth more money than a passenger on a J sale fare on the same flight. There is a specific name or reference to what the airlines call this but I cannot remember...

 

[Jacques Vert]

Now a 747 - still havent been in one of these and sad I didnt get to do it.

QF will be one of, if not the, last airlines flying the 747-400 as a passenger aircraft due to their later model ER versions that they have. Those could fly another 10+ years easily. So, still plenty of time.

Interestingly, my first flight on a 747 was in 1975, my second in 2010 and I've had 4 x 747 flights in the last twelve months.

I haven't been on the A380 yet so hoping it hangs around a little longer; but I can't see it being as long-lived as the Queen.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You're comparing less than 0.1% of the total passenger configured planes currently flying. These planes are configured like this to specifically travel between business hubs where there is a high demand for premium seating.

The rest of the 99.9% of of passenger flights rely quite heavily on Y passengers. In fact, Y passengers who travel at last minute and end up having to pay for higher class Y fares, on a seat per area squared basis are worth more money than a passenger on a J sale fare on the same flight. There is a specific name or reference to what the airlines call this but I cannot remember...

This youtube might be of interest - on average, two-thirds of revenue comes from premium travel: Awesome Video: The Economics Of Airline Classes - One Mile at a Time

 

[suze2000]

This youtube might be of interest - on average, two-thirds of revenue comes from premium travel

1) the video talks about revenue, not profit per seat
2) few planes have that layout. eg Emirates 2-class 77 has 42 business and 385 economy, their 3-class v2 has 8 first, 42 business and 310 economy. The economy taking up more than half the floorspace on the plane
3) it does not account for freight profits
4) it does not take into account the discounting on airline seats
5) it does not account for the huge number of premium flyers who fly using points

So basically, these considerable flaws in the assumptions made by the video mean I don't believe it's correct.

 

[UP4014]

Having two large aircraft split the market, once upon a time if you wanted a biggie it was the 747. There are 10 or so customers who have the 747-8 so I would predict in 3 years the 380 production line is closed and Boeing hangs in there and we'll see a return of the 747 because Boeing manages production lines better.

Boeing still has a 767 production line they just slow things right down and just plod along and slowly keep building. Airbus has a different approach to production management.

The fact that no one want's a second hand 380 tells of high maintenance costs that are industry known.

Matt

 

[Quickstatus]

End of line productions are relatively cheaper and are also quite mature with respect to the iterations since original design. All the kinks have been ironed out. Great for the freighter business

Unfortunately on the passenger side of the business it's seen as an old airplane. Passengers are after new shiny high tech, even though many passengers don't know what airplane they are flying in and probably don't care. I would fly in it

 

[moa999]

I think the 380 all depends on EK.
Certainly expect EA to drop out of the engine supply game leaving just RR, who EK have switched to.

EK like to churn aircraft at 10year point so it will come down to financing. Some people will get burnt on returns of the current planes and the oil price isn't where it was. So it comes down to whether EK can fund a chunk of replacements over the next 10 years

Whereas I don't have much hope for the 747-8 production line

 

[UP4014]

End of line productions are relatively cheaper and are also quite mature with respect to the iterations since original design. All the kinks have been ironed out. Great for the freighter business

Unfortunately on the passenger side of the business it's seen as an old airplane. Passengers are after new shiny high tech, even though many passengers don't know what airplane they are flying in and probably don't care. I would fly in it

That's where I don't think the 380 sold enough to pay for itself so Airbus management style is to cut and run.

As a passenger I don't like new and shiny I like proven and reliability.

Matt

 

[Quickstatus]

That's where I don't think the 380 sold enough to pay for itself so Airbus management style is to cut and run.

As a passenger I don't like new and shiny I like reliability.

Matt

I agree. I'm agnostic about airframes. The operator, routing, timetable, is more important.

The A380 is a nice aircraft - it's just ahead of its time

 

[cove]

The A380 does give passengers a good ride but on long hauls it cannot always carry enough freight compared with other planes. The junk yard is beckoning. The DC1011 was a lovely plane too but it is gone. The 777 is doing better than the A380 at the moment for passengers and freight and the market is now moving to the A350 and the 787.

 

[Jacques Vert]

I agree. I'm agnostic about airframes. The operator, routing, timetable, is more important.

The A380 is a nice aircraft - it's just ahead of its time

Welcome back Matt; haven't seen much from you for a while....

 

[UP4014]

Welcome back Matt; haven't seen much from you for a while....

It's been a while for sure. I thought you might be missing my opinion on everything from how to get out of a South American coupe to what my favourite slot machine is in Las Vegas.

I just didn't want anyone missing that vital info.

Cheers
Matt

 

[cove]

I wonder why there are no Las Vegas style slot machines installed on any A380s.

 

[UP4014]

I wonder why there are no Las Vegas style slot machines installed on any A380s.

Lifted from a CNN story, the problem as I see it is they should have removed all the seats and put a seatbelt around the machine and the passenger. Putting them in the aisles just blocks the drink service.

Singapore Airlines took gambling up in the air in 1981, when they installed lightweight slot machines in the aisles on a flight that operated between Singapore and San Francisco. It was an experiment that lasted a mere two months. The company admits the machines posed "an operational challenge", and had them removed.

 

[TomVexille]

Lifted from a CNN story, the problem as I see it is they should have removed all the seats and put a seatbelt around the machine and the passenger. Putting them in the aisles just blocks the drink service.

Singapore Airlines took gambling up in the air in 1981, when they installed lightweight slot machines in the aisles on a flight that operated between Singapore and San Francisco. It was an experiment that lasted a mere two months. The company admits the machines posed "an operational challenge", and had them removed.

And the (now defunct) Swissair tried to bring it back electronically in the 90's

 

[harvyk]

Unfortunately on the passenger side of the business it's seen as an old airplane. Passengers are after new shiny high tech, even though many passengers don't know what airplane they are flying in and probably don't care. I would fly in it

You're partially right, the average pax ultimately doesn't care what sort of plane they fly in, but give a pax a clean interior and a modern seat and they would swear that a 20 year old plane had just come off the assembly line.

Airlines with high turnover are doing it because they're based in countries with tax systems that allow it and it avoids the expense of an overhaul, the fact that pax feel the plane is "new" is simply gravy as far as those airlines are concerned.

 

[harvyk]

Having two large aircraft split the market, once upon a time if you wanted a biggie it was the 747. There are 10 or so customers who have the 747-8 so I would predict in 3 years the 380 production line is closed and Boeing hangs in there and we'll see a return of the 747 because Boeing manages production lines better.

Boeing still has a 767 production line they just slow things right down and just plod along and slowly keep building. Airbus has a different approach to production management.

The fact that no one want's a second hand 380 tells of high maintenance costs that are industry known.

Matt

I would love it if you were correct about an increase of 747-8 sales if the A380 was to cease production, but I just can't see that happening mainly thanks to the 777 and 787.

Very large aircraft like the 747 was designed for a different time, where long indirect and infrequent trips were the norm. These days we want multiple direct flights every day at times of our choosing. as a result lots of smaller planes flying frequently will win out against one large plane flying daily.

 

[UP4014]

I think there is a market for one large aircraft. Two just split the sales of what was a an up and down cycle to begin with.