AA to fly LAX/SYD; Qantas returns to SFO/SYD

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Re: Major new AA route to be announced June 9th.

Yes but at SYD you can at least see one terminal from the other :rolleyes:.

That's a weak defence :). The only reason you can see at SYD is because they are across the apron from each other. At BNE they are in a line and probably the same distance apart.
 
Re: Major new AA route to be announced June 9th.

I'm more interested with AA flying LAX-SYD. I can't wait to try that out.

QF flying to SFO is not that relevant to my flying pattern as I have mainly flown to the East from LAX. Having said that, I hope that they can make it work this time.
 
Re: Awesomer? News

It looks to me as though the flights to SFO will be evening departures in both directions, with a schedule looking something like this:

QF73 SYD 19:00 - SFO 13:30
QF74 SFO 20:30 - SYD 06:30 (+ 2 days)

I should point out that I have no insider knowledge, this is just my instinct based on looking at current schedules.

It won't surprise me for the SYD-HND flight to become a daytime flight in one direction to accommodate the new schedule, though I'm not sure whether it will be QF25 or QF26.
[armchair airline exec]
Assuming you mean SYD-SFO, that is a long time on the ground. If it left a few hours earlier, the return could be timed to arrive before the SYD curfew.
[/armchair airline exec]
 
Re: Awesomer? News

It looks to me as though the flights to SFO will be evening departures in both directions, with a schedule looking something like this:

QF73 SYD 19:00 - SYD 13:30
QF74 SFO 20:30 - SYD 06:30 (+ 2 days)

I should point out that I have no insider knowledge, this is just my instinct based on looking at current schedules.

It won't surprise me for the SYD-HND flight to become a daytime flight in one direction to accommodate the new schedule, though I'm not sure whether it will be QF25 or QF26.
What are you basing that guess on?
The old times were
SYD-SFO 1255-0900
SFO-SYD 2310-0540+2

Do we even know if the new SFO flights will have the same numbers as before?
 
Re: Awesomer? News

[armchair airline exec]
Assuming you mean SYD-SFO, that is a long time on the ground. If it left a few hours earlier, the return could be timed to arrive before the SYD curfew.
[/armchair airline exec]

I did indeed mean SFO, well spotted.

What are you basing that guess on?
The old times were
SYD-SFO 1255-0900
SFO-SYD 2310-0540+2

Do we even know if the new SFO flights will have the same numbers as before?

I 'll try to explain how I reached that conclusion... Basically, it comes down to the QF 747 schedules in and out of SYD.

QF's current 747 routes are BNE-LAX-JFK, SYD-LAX (becoming 3x weekly), MEL-LAX (3x weekly - becoming 2x weekly), SYD-HKG, SYD-NRT (will be SYD-HND in December), SYD-JNB and SYD-SCL (4x weekly). There's also SYD-YVR but I'm going to ignore that for the moment because it is only operating for a couple of months per year and, at least over summer, it just so happens to coincide with the period that SYD-HKG flights are getting an A380, so I'm going to assume that the aircraft for YVR is coming from there.


Now, BNE-LAX-JFK requires 2 aircraft. SYD-HKG requires 1 aircraft.

This is where it gets interesting. Assuming that QF wants to maximise aircraft utilisation (which they'll have to), they'll presumably want to minimise the time aircraft spend on the ground. For this reason I'm going to hazard a guess that SYD-HND will be retimed so that one flight is during the day, and the route only requires 1 aircraft. (It may not - but see my explanation at the end.)

Now, QF has 2 other flights that leave SYD in the morning - QF63 daily and QF27 4x weekly. Both these aircraft arrive back into SYD the following afternoon. Out of the SYD flights, only QF17 and QF73 (I'm guessing this will be the designator for SFO - it may not be) are now unaccounted for. If QF were to maximise fleet utilisation, they would surely send these two flights over the Pacific in the evening (a la the current QF17 schedule), straight after the aircraft arrive from JNB and SCL respectively. The flights would then be back in SYD in 2 mornings' time to head back to JNB or SCL (or elsewhere). That way, JNB and SFO only need 3 aircraft between them and SCL/LAX only need 2 between them (given the frequencies).

The only 747 flight that's not accounted for now is MEL-LAX twice a week. Presumably this would be worked into the SYD-LAX rotation in some way.

If QF don't retime SYD-HND, they could send an aircraft to SFO in the morning after the HND arrival and send the JNB arrival to HND in the evening, but that will require one more frame due to the combined day of extra time an aircraft would sit on the ground in both HND and SFO.

Other possibilities include having the 747 LAX-SYD or LAX-MEL as daytime flights with an immediate evening turnaround back to LAX, or even having SYD-SFO as a mid-morning departure with early morning arrival and SFO-SYD as a day flight with evening arrival into SYD. But I would say my initial suggestion would be more likely.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but this all seems logical to me. Oh, and I'm sorry if I lost anyone with that explanation...
 
Re: Awesomer? News

I had a go myself at scheduling in my spare time today, these were my results:
QF17 moves to a 1pm departure on Sunday, Tuesday and Friday, arriving about 9:30am same day, and either forms QF16 or a retimed QF96
QF96 moves to a midday departure on Tuesday and Friday, arriving around 8:30pm the next day. A quick turnaround and then...
QF95 moves to 10:30pm or later departure on Wednesday and Saturday, arriving same day at 7:30pm. This flight then forms QF16.

On Sundays, Wednesdays and Saturdays the flight from JFK goes to SYD instead of BNE (which will be covered by an incoming from SYD or MEL), arriving in Sydney in the morning two days later. This allows the aircraft on the Tuesday and Friday rotations to essentially be self-contained. Meanwhile the Sunday QF17 is formed by the Saturday afternoon arrival from SCL. When the plane eventually gets back in Sydney from LAX on Monday the following week, it forms the Monday SCL departure. Since the Sunday rotation would be combined with the SCL flights over a period of two weeks it would require two aircraft. Assuming the SFO flights will follow the old QF 73/74 times, the Saturday SCL flight would be operated by the inbound flight from SFO that arrives on Saturday morning (as there are no Saturday flights to SFO).

As such, this will require Qantas to only need 10 747's this summer - 3 on SYD-JNB-SYD-HND-SYD, 1 on SYD-YVR, 2 on SYD-SFO + Saturday SYD-SCL, 2 on the Tuesday and Friday LAX rotations, 2 on Sunday LAX rotation + weekday SYD-SCL

Like Mattg said, sorry if I lost anyone with that explanation :mrgreen:
 
Re: Awesomer? News

I had a go myself at scheduling in my spare time today, these were my results:
QF17 moves to a 1pm departure on Sunday, Tuesday and Friday, arriving about 9:30am same day, and either forms QF16 or a retimed QF96
QF96 moves to a midday departure on Tuesday and Friday, arriving around 8:30pm the next day. A quick turnaround and then...
QF95 moves to 10:30pm or later departure on Wednesday and Saturday, arriving same day at 7:30pm. This flight then forms QF16.

On Sundays, Wednesdays and Saturdays the flight from JFK goes to SYD instead of BNE (which will be covered by an incoming from SYD or MEL), arriving in Sydney in the morning two days later. This allows the aircraft on the Tuesday and Friday rotations to essentially be self-contained. Meanwhile the Sunday QF17 is formed by the Saturday afternoon arrival from SCL. When the plane eventually gets back in Sydney from LAX on Monday the following week, it forms the Monday SCL departure. Since the Sunday rotation would be combined with the SCL flights over a period of two weeks it would require two aircraft. Assuming the SFO flights will follow the old QF 73/74 times, the Saturday SCL flight would be operated by the inbound flight from SFO that arrives on Saturday morning (as there are no Saturday flights to SFO).

As such, this will require Qantas to only need 10 747's this summer - 3 on SYD-JNB-SYD-HND-SYD, 1 on SYD-YVR, 2 on SYD-SFO + Saturday SYD-SCL, 2 on the Tuesday and Friday LAX rotations, 2 on Sunday LAX rotation + weekday SYD-SCL

Like Mattg said, sorry if I lost anyone with that explanation :mrgreen:

It certainly does get complicated and messy very quickly!

Another thought I had is that QF17/18 could take similar timings to QF27/28, with QF17 being a mid-morning departure, then QF18 quickly turning around to arrive in SYD the following evening. That way, QF17/18 could run on the three days SCL doesn't, with the aircraft switching in SYD between SFO and SCL/LAX depending on the day. This assumes an evening departure for QF73 and morning arrival back in SYD for QF74. That way SYD-SFO, SYD-SCL and SYD-LAX only need 3 aircraft between them.

Then, 3 aircraft could shuttle between JNB and HND as you've suggested, sticking to current timings. That's 6 aircraft so far. Then they just need 2 planes for BNE-LAX-JFK and one for SYD-HKG (or YVR in summer). All up, 9 aircraft. The only thing I haven't accounted for is QF95/96. With 2x weekly service, that's half a plane.
 
Re: Awesomer? News

It won't surprise me for the SYD-HND flight to become a daytime flight in one direction to accommodate the new schedule, though I'm not sure whether it will be QF25 or QF26.

They would have to do the opposite of what JL is doing on the route wouldnt they (ie they would switch qf26 to be a daytime flight?). It seems crazy to complete with JL on their timetable when they offer completely the opposite?
 
Heres the next question, once QF finally get their 787s, which routes will get them? SFO and YVR is a shoe-in but im thinking SYD-LAX capacity is too big to downgrade?
 
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Heres the next question, once QF finally get their 787s, which routes will get them? SFO and YVR is a shoe-in but im thinking SYD-LAX capacity is too big to downgrade?

Unless they go for the CX strategy of increasing frequency but maintaining capacity
 
Heres the next question, once QF finally get their 787s, which routes will get them? SFO and YVR is a shoe-in but im thinking SYD-LAX capacity is too big to downgrade?

I would expect:
SYD-SFO
SYD-YVR
BNE-LAX
LAX-JFK
The additional MEL-LAX flights (QF95/96)
PER-DXB-BER
SYD-BOM
SYD-PVG
Possibly SYD-PEK
I'm sure they would also like to send a 787 to JNB, I guess it depends on ETOPS.
 
I would expect:
SYD-SFO
SYD-YVR
BNE-LAX
LAX-JFK
The additional MEL-LAX flights (QF95/96)
PER-DXB-BER
SYD-BOM
SYD-PVG
Possibly SYD-PEK
I'm sure they would also like to send a 787 to JNB, I guess it depends on ETOPS.

SYD-PEK would be a perfect dream! unless you are into air China this route is nothing short of abysmal.
 
Routes to North America are fine with ETOPS180. It's only routes to South America, Southern Africa and parts of Central America that need more then 180.
Great Circle Mapper

Yeah, well aware that North America is easily within 180. Was thinking more along the lines of the current 747 routes like SCL & JNB which will have to be replaced at some point if QF want to continue with those markets.
 
I would expect:
SYD-SFO
SYD-YVR
BNE-LAX
LAX-JFK
The additional MEL-LAX flights (QF95/96)
PER-DXB-BER
SYD-BOM
SYD-PVG
Possibly SYD-PEK
I'm sure they would also like to send a 787 to JNB, I guess it depends on ETOPS.

Why do people keep suggesting BER? Its not a business destination and never will be.
 
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