TAs have had their commissions cut so much (and NDC is another cut) that many (Including mine) now charge a booking fee. I don't mind that, as they can do stuff we mere mortals can only imagine and they still do 24/7 changes when the airline cancels on you...
The way AA has/is implementing NDC is quite agressive and rather unpopular - clearly with TA's and third party sites that don't get access to all the fares. From the airline's perspective of course it's brilliant - they can advertise their own fares through their own channels - much less cost to them and they can control the product offered (the positive spin being to offer things like bundling and better differentiation of fares and products that legacy systems can't/don't).
I suppose the real question is who are the airlines targeting with this policy? If I talk to people outside my immediate family (who know darn well you should book direct) chances are they are booking with an online travel agency like Expedia or WebJet. After all, they can compare prices and routings quite easily. And for the typical traveller who doesn't know or frankly care what Qantas status credits are, what will drive their decision making is price, routing and time. In that regard, treating the OTAs poorly will back fire, since it means they'll be less likely to push traffic onto that airline given the commission, given the fact they can only access a portion of inventory available versus booking direct (meaning higher prices shown to customers). Airlines will say it will allow customers to better understand the fare they are purchasing. But have they actually ever talked to the typical traveller? Chances are they don't know or care what the different fare products are, whatever is the cheapest and will get them their matters. Again, this is a totally different audience than your frequent flyer.
Then of course we turn our attention to corporate travellers, who often must book travel through a corporate travel agency since it ensures compliance with travel policy and a host of other reasons. In those cases they may or may not care about things like status or loyalty. After all, if company policy says you can fly business, who cares if you don't bother with status? You'll have the same perks anyways. And those who travel often enough realize the real game is actually having status in all alliances so you are guaranteed perks regardless of who you travel with. In addition, since you are spending OPM, what really matters would be things like the carrier, the soft product, routing, etc. Again, that's not something where you'll be visiting the AA site to see. You'll go through your travel agent, they'll quote you some fares and you'll choose the one you want (or go through their online portal).
What I do see happening is travel agents becoming free agents and working for travellers rather than the airlines and travel companies. I reckon many organizations and individuals would not mind paying a quality travel agent to give them unbiased advice versus saving $50 and being suggested to take the American flight because they get a nicer commission.
We will see how all of this goes but I think airlines who want to eliminate travel agents and OTAs are in for a rude awakening when they realize how much revenue they lost by cutting out those channels. Travellers simply don't book direct and never will. You would have to be crazy to blindly search an airline's website for flights without first seeing what other airlines offer in terms of routing and schedule.
-RooFlyer88
