AFF's 100,000th post thread....

[Reggie]

I really should have been paying more attention to the date...

I have to say I was surprised when you didn't put in a guess.

 

[simongr]

After the debacle with the 80,000th post and associated ramifications I actually decided not to partake in these events.

 

[Reggie]

After the debacle with the 80,000th post and associated ramifications I actually decided not to partake in these events.

Things have been different since, what you refer to as the debacle, of the 80,000th post, and the moderatos appear to be keeping a closer eye on posts. OT threas are relegated to the playground, or closed, and some posts are deleted if they add no value in the moderators opinion even when in the playground (I know this because a post of mine was deleted).

One of the (more minor) concerns pointed out from the 80,000th thread were people who didn't even register a date and time were playing a big part in padding. Looking back at this thread, the last few days could be considered by some as post padding, but this is the playground, and most are in the correct thread

 

[simongr]

I actually wasnt concerned about the padding - seemed like harmless fun - it was the reaction that I was disappointed by. But - looks like plenty of guesses here so should be fairly exciting.

 

[JohnK]

A slight hiccup in the posting rate the last few days and a long weekend coming up could make this a very interesting contest.....

 

[Reggie]

A slight hiccup in the posting rate the last few days and a long weekend coming up could make this a very interesting contest.....

And the upcoming mining towns tour.

 

[JohnK]

Even with all these obstacles it would appear that the contest will be over before the end of January....

 

[Mwenenzi]

Have been keeping an excel spreadsheet with posts & dates. Done some analysis
When I submitted my estimate at 21:15 20-01-08 post count was 98501, A few minutes ago at 20:30 post count was 99516. That’s an average of 145.6 posts per day since 21:15 20-01-08 (& 128 posts per day since post 90,000)

At that rate (145.6) post 100,000 will happen at 04:15 31/01/08.

Below is what posting rate is needed from 20:30 27-01-08 for post 100,000 at the 12:00 on the various dates (based on reference of 20:30 27-01-08)
12:00 28/01/08 needs 749.4 posts per day
12:00 29/01/08 needs 294.1 posts per day
12:00 30/01/08 needs 182.9 posts per day
12:00 31/01/08 needs 132.8 posts per day
12:00 01/02/08 needs 104.2 posts per day
12:00 02/02/08 needs 85.7 posts per day
12:00 03/02/08 needs 72.8 posts per day
12:00 04/02/08 needs 63.3 posts per day
12:00 05/02/08 needs 56.0 posts per day
12:00 06/02/08 needs 50.2 posts per day
12:00 07/02/08 needs 45.5 posts per day
12:00 08/02/08 needs 41.6 posts per day
12:00 09/02/08 needs 38.3 posts per day


But prolific poster JohnK's mining tour will help slow down the post rate. Posting rate has slowed over the weekend

 

[kpc]

Below is what posting rate is needed from now for post 100,000 at the 12:00 on the various dates (based on reference of 20:30 27-01-08)
12:00 28/01/08 needs 749.4 posts per day

Come on everyone!! You all need to post at least 10 times now!! Please...

 

[Mwenenzi]

Come on everyone!! You all need to post at least 10 times now!! Please...

Wishful thinking kpc
31-01-08 or 01-02-08 are looking good based on posting rates this weekend. Weekend posting is notably slower than mid last week.

 

[oz_mark]

Below is what posting rate is needed from 20:30 27-01-08 for post 100,000 at the 12:00 on the various dates (based on reference of 20:30 27-01-08)
12:00 28/01/08 needs 749.4 posts per day
12:00 29/01/08 needs 294.1 posts per day
12:00 30/01/08 needs 182.9 posts per day
12:00 31/01/08 needs 132.8 posts per day
12:00 01/02/08 needs 104.2 posts per day
12:00 02/02/08 needs 85.7 posts per day
12:00 03/02/08 needs 72.8 posts per day
12:00 04/02/08 needs 63.3 posts per day
12:00 05/02/08 needs 56.0 posts per day
12:00 06/02/08 needs 50.2 posts per day
12:00 07/02/08 needs 45.5 posts per day
12:00 08/02/08 needs 41.6 posts per day
12:00 09/02/08 needs 38.3 posts per day


But prolific poster JohnK's mining tour will help slow down the post rate. Posting rate has slowed over the weekend

Oh keeper of statistics!, isn't a slowdown normal over the weekend. I always had the impression is was, but I have never really analysed it!

 

[oz_mark]

Come on everyone!! You all need to post at least 10 times now!! Please...

I don't think you are allowed to change your guess again

 

[kpc]

I don't think you are allowed to change your guess again

I think I should have stuck with my original guess

Wishful thinking kpc
31-01-08 or 01-02-08 are looking good based on posting rates this weekend. Weekend posting is notably slower than mid last week.

I failed to take this into account...:evil:

 

[stuartfaz]

At that rate (145.6) post 100,000 will happen at 04:15 31/01/08.

At this rate that would make my guess the furthest away (in the week timeline) wouldn't it?

I'll take that but I'd greatly appreciate any efforts to knock 100 posts off the daily post rate .

 

[Keith009]

I just hastened the process by updating my TR ... had to split the update into a few different posts due to the 6 images limit per post.

 

[Mwenenzi]

Updated data point
When I submitted my estimate at 21:15 20-01-08 post count was 98501, A few minutes ago at 22:40 post count was 99542. That’s an average of 147.4 posts per day since 21:15 20-01-08 (& 128 posts per day since post 90,000)

to post 100,000
726.3 posts per day needed for kpc 28/01/08 @ 1:48pm AEDST
295.7 posts per day needed for Mwenenzi 29/01/08 @ 11:50pm AEDST
193.1 posts per day needed for JohnK 30/01/08 @ 7:36am AEDST
173.6 posts per day needed for Bundy Bear 30/01/08 @ 2:00pm AEDST
150.9 posts per day needed for oz_mark 30/01/08 @ 11:30pm AEDST
145.2 posts per day needed for littl_flier 31/01/08 @ 2:21am AEDST
129.1 posts per day needed for drron 31/01/08 @ 11:49am AEDST
112.1 posts per day needed for straitman 01/02/08 @ 0:45am AEDST
102.4 posts per day needed for Hawkeye 01/02/08 @ 10:00am AEDST
104.6 posts per day needed for Mal 01/02/08 @ 7:45pm AEDST
78.9 posts per day needed for serfty 02/02/08 @ 6:00pm AEDST
70.7 posts per day needed for Reggie 03/02/08 @ 10:05am AEDST
71.0 posts per day needed for Wunala Dreaming 03/02/08 @ 9:30pm AEDST
52.1 posts per day needed for QF009 05/02/08 @ 5:48pm AEDST
47.1 posts per day needed for Evan 06/02/08 @ 4:17pm AEDST
43.4 posts per day needed for stuartfaz 07/02/08 @ 12:00noon AEDST
40.4 posts per day needed for Hvr 08/02/08 @ 6:40am AEDST
35.9 posts per day needed for Ric 09/02/08 @ 4:30pm AEDST

Posting rate has slowed over the weekend

 

[JohnK]

Looks like it could come down to oz_mark, littl_flier or drron!

But prolific poster JohnK's mining tour will help slow down the post rate. Posting rate has slowed over the weekend

You hope. I have some spare time today so I better make sure that the current posting rate is maintained.

By the way some very good analysis on posting trends.

Oh keeper of statistics!, isn't a slowdown normal over the weekend. I always had the impression is was, but I have never really analysed it!

Perfectly normal for the posting rate to slow down on weekends.

 

[oz_mark]

Looks like it could come down to oz_mark, littl_flier or drron!

Could, but I only have a very small window of opportunity - there's only a few hours between my guess and littl_flier's...

You hope. I have some spare time today so I better make sure that the current posting rate is maintained.

By the way some very good analysis on posting trends.

Certainly makes some peoples guesses look ambitious at this point in time.

Perfectly normal for the posting rate to slow down on weekends.

Thought so, just feels like some weekends, the posting rate goes way down.

 

[JohnK]

Could, but I only have a very small window of opportunity - there's only a few hours between my guess and littl_flier's...

Your window of opportunity is not too bad. It is from 6:45pm until 0:55am. Much better than my 6 minute window of opportunity in a prior contest. :shock: Your window of opportunity for running second is much better.

Certainly makes some peoples guesses look ambitious at this point in time.

I think they had the right idea except the posting rate went sharply from 117 posts per day to 128 posts per day and has now dropped again. It is quite noticeable that a few people with later guesses have not been posting much in the last week. Not sure if this is to do with holidays or intentionally trying to slow the posting rate. Well we have heard of post padding and now the new conspiracy theory is post slowing....

 

[oz_mark]

Your window of opportunity is not too bad. It is from 6:45pm until 0:55am. Much better than my 6 minute window of opportunity in a prior contest. :shock: Your window of opportunity for running second is much better.


I think they had the right idea except the posting rate went sharply from 117 posts per day to 128 posts per day and has now dropped again. It is quite noticeable that a few people with later guesses have not been posting much in the last week. Not sure if this is to do with holidays or intentionally trying to slow the posting rate. Well we have heard of post padding and now the new conspiracy theory is post slowing....

I think some of the earlier guess people factored in the Aust Day long weekend, and your mining trip as it was being discussed. Some of the more recent guesses were made by people (such as me), who may have neglected this.

I don't think there is anything unusual about a low posting rate over a long weekend.