AFF's 100,000th post thread....

[Bundy Bear]

Your window of opportunity is not too bad. It is from 6:45pm until 0:55am. Much better than my 6 minute window of opportunity in a prior contest. :shock: Your window of opportunity for running second is much better.


I think they had the right idea except the posting rate went sharply from 117 posts per day to 128 posts per day and has now dropped again. It is quite noticeable that a few people with later guesses have not been posting much in the last week. Not sure if this is to do with holidays or intentionally trying to slow the posting rate. Well we have heard of post padding and now the new conspiracy theory is post slowing....

I thought you were doing a Queensland Mining Run; what are you doing posting.

 

[straitman]

I think they had the right idea except the posting rate went sharply from 117 posts per day to 128 posts per day and has now dropped again. It is quite noticeable that a few people with later guesses have not been posting much in the last week. Not sure if this is to do with holidays or intentionally trying to slow the posting rate. Well we have heard of post padding and now the new conspiracy theory is post slowing....

The conspiricy theory works for me. All be it accidental.

 

[Hawkeye]

CAN YOU ALL STOP POSTING, PLEASE!!!

Some of us have a competition we are trying to win!

 

[Mwenenzi]

Data point 20:30 28-01-08 - 99627 posts. 141 posts per day from data point 21:15 20-01-08 - 98501 posts (a few hours before the contest closed). Only 111 posts since the same time yesterday. A slow day. AFF'ers out on the public holiday. Some of us not looking good to win this contest

At 141.30 posts per day 11:51am on 31-01-08 is the predicted time for post 100,000

For post 100,000
-1336 posts per day needed for kpc 28/01/08 @ 1:48pm AEDST (Yes:- negative posts needed
328 posts per day needed for Mwenenzi 29/01/08 @ 11:50pm AEDST
255 posts per day needed for JohnK 30/01/08 @ 7:36am AEDST
216 posts per day needed for Bundy Bear 30/01/08 @ 2:00pm AEDST
176 posts per day needed for oz_mark 30/01/08 @ 11:30pm AEDST
166 posts per day needed for littl_flier 31/01/08 @ 2:21am AEDST
141 posts per day needed for drron 31/01/08 @ 11:49am AEDST
117 posts per day needed for straitman 01/02/08 @ 0:45am AEDST
105 posts per day needed for Hawkeye 01/02/08 @ 10:00am AEDST
94 posts per day needed for Mal 01/02/08 @ 7:45pm AEDST
76 posts per day needed for serfty 02/02/08 @ 6:00pm AEDST
67 posts per day needed for Reggie 03/02/08 @ 10:05am AEDST
62 posts per day needed for Wunala Dreaming 03/02/08 @ 9:30pm AEDST
47 posts per day needed for QF009 05/02/08 @ 5:48pm AEDST
42 posts per day needed for Evan 06/02/08 @ 4:17pm AEDST
39 posts per day needed for stuartfaz 07/02/08 @ 12:00noon AEDST
36 posts per day needed for Hvr 08/02/08 @ 6:40am AEDST
32 posts per day needed for Ric 09/02/08 @ 4:30pm AEDST

drron & straitman are looking good for the correct e.t.a. Good flight planning ??

 

[oz_mark]

CAN YOU ALL STOP POSTING, PLEASE!!!

Some of us have a competition we are trying to win!

stop whining. you're still in there with a shot (slim though it may be) Just need to hit a bit of turbulence...

 

[Bundy Bear]

Well according to Mwenenzi I need to increase the pace a bit.

 

[drron]

I say keep posting at the exact same rate.11.15 on 31/01 looks pretty good to me!

 

[oz_mark]

I say keep posting at the exact same rate.11.15 on 31/01 looks pretty good to me!

I say step it up a bit

 

[kpc]

2nd February 2008 @ 1348 AEDT

5 posters:
straitman
NM
serfty
JohnK
Other

Can I revert to my original guess please?

 

[drron]

Can I revert to my original guess please? [/quote)
Who's sorry now?Who's sorrynow/
.........
Right to the end,just like a friend
I tried to warn you somehow
You had your way,now you must pay
I'm glad that youre sorry now.

With apologies to Connie Francis.

 

[oz_mark]

Can I revert to my original guess please?

I learnt in a previous competition not to meddle with my initial guess.

 

[JohnK]

Very very disappointing posting rate for the last 6 days....

 

[oz_mark]

Very very disappointing posting rate for the last 6 days....

Long weekends will do that, but to be honest I had expected it to pick up today after all the people were back on board and catching up with the last few days. Maybe they are catching up with their work!

 

[Mwenenzi]

Daily Update
Data Point 1:- 21:15 20/01/08 98501 posts :- a few hours before the contest closed
Data Point 2:- 20:30 27/01/08 99516 posts :- 147 posts per day from DP1
Data Point 3:- 20:30 28/01/08 99627 posts :- 141 posts per day from DP1 & 111 posts from DP2
Data Point 4:- 20:30 29/01/08 99800 posts :- 145 posts per day from DP1 & 173 posts from DP3

200 posts to go before post 100,000. At 144.80 posts per day 05:38am on 31-01-08 is the predicted time for post 100,000. But posting slows after midnight AEDST. Posting rate has picked up since yesterday.

drron is still looking good for the nearest to the correct e.t.a. The increased posting rate has pushed to the predicted result towards littl_flier and away from straitman. oz mark from Perth in with a chance if the posting rate picks after 20:30 AEDST.

-156 posts per day needed for kpc 28/01/08 @ 1:48pm AEDST
1440 posts per day needed for Mwenenzi 29/01/08 @ 11:50pm AEDST
432 posts per day needed for JohnK 30/01/08 @ 7:36am AEDST
274 posts per day needed for Bundy Bear 30/01/08 @ 2:00pm AEDST
178 posts per day needed for oz_mark 30/01/08 @ 11:30pm AEDST
161 posts per day needed for littl_flier 31/01/08 @ 2:21am AEDST
122 posts per day needed for drron 31/01/08 @ 11:49am AEDST
92 posts per day needed for straitman 01/02/08 @ 0:45am AEDST
78 posts per day needed for Hawkeye 01/02/08 @ 10:00am AEDST
67 posts per day needed for Mal 01/02/08 @ 7:45pm AEDST
54 posts per day needed for kpc 1st guess NOW INVALID 02/02/08 @ 1:48pm AEDST
51 posts per day needed for serfty 02/02/08 @ 6:00pm AEDST
44 posts per day needed for Reggie 03/02/08 @ 10:05am AEDST
40 posts per day needed for Wunala Dreaming 03/02/08 @ 9:30pm AEDST
29 posts per day needed for QF009 05/02/08 @ 5:48pm AEDST
26 posts per day needed for Evan 06/02/08 @ 4:17pm AEDST
23 posts per day needed for stuartfaz 07/02/08 @ 12:00noon AEDST
21 posts per day needed for Hvr 08/02/08 @ 6:40am AEDST

 

[oz_mark]

drron is still looking good for the nearest to the correct e.t.a. The increased posting rate has pushed to the predicted result towards littl_flier and away from straitman. oz mark from Perth in with a chance if the posting rate picks after 20:30 AEDST.

WooHoo. Still in with a shot.....Tomorrow will be quite a telling day.

 

[Bundy Bear]

WooHoo. Still in with a shot.....Tomorrow will be quite a telling day.

You reckon, now if could just get everyone to reply on how good my trip around Australia report is.

 

[serfty]

Guys, I'll make my prediction now!

Well Done Bevan on winning this competition!

 

[Bundy Bear]

Don't count the chickens before they hatch.

 

[oz_mark]

Well Done Bevan on winning this competition!

That is a big call!

 

[serfty]

That is a big call!

Not really!

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