Airlines eye new slots at Haneda (Tokyo)

[Pleb Status]

Err. HND is slot restricted. “Taken up” = “being used”. The fact that it is 29 March, the start of NS where slots changes occur is a dead giveaway. HND doesn’t use placeholders. You actually have to fly daily from 29 March 2020 because that what was negotiated with the Japanese government.

Why do you think the IASC is expediting the decision and review process.

Of course the QF application is skewed but is consistent with the requirements being set out which is why they are banging on about “another Australian carrier” not being able to meet the regulatory requirements to meet the deadline.

Honestly, leave your bias at the door and read/consider the purpose of why the HND is such a special airport and has many restrictions placed on it.

No one is disputing that the timing of these changes is due to the Olympics and the Japanese government wanting more tourists. However, the requirement is that the slots are taken up on 29 March 2020.

Err. You are still to demonstrate (with any reference whatsoever) that the new HND flight MUST commence operation on 29 March 2020 and not a single day later. Until you can provide a credible reference clearly stating that is this is the case, it is not the case no matter how much your bias wants it to be. I am happy to be corrected once a credible reference has been provided (which should be available 'everywhere').

Existing operators will obviously start on 29 March 2020 as they have all necessary approvals already and they want to make $$$$ as soon as possible. VA could as well if the necessary approvals are received in time.

You would think VA know what the requirements for the new HND service actually are and believe they can meet them.

From a common sense point of view, why would a one or two month delay be an issue for a service that could operate for ten to twenty years into the future.

So to repeat, awarding both slots to QF will be similar to not awarding one slot to anyone at all....

 

[Himeno]

Err. You are still to demonstrate (with any reference whatsoever) that the new HND flight MUST commence operation on 29 March 2020 and not a single day later. Until you can provide a credible reference clearly stating that is this is the case, it is not the case no matter how much your bias wants it to be. I am happy to be corrected once a credible reference has been provided (which should be available 'everywhere').

Existing operators will obviously start on 29 March 2020 as they have all necessary approvals already and they want to make $$$$ as soon as possible. VA could as well if the necessary approvals are received in time.

You would think VA know what the requirements for the new HND service actually are and believe they can meet them.

From a common sense point of view, why would a one or two month delay be an issue for a service that could operate for ten to twenty years into the future.

So to repeat, awarding both slots to QF will be similar to not awarding one slot to anyone at all....

Again, VA has no rights currently to fly to Japan. They need to get Japanese regulatory approvals, which takes at least 8 months, before they can do so.
They can not sit on a HND slot and not use it waiting for those approvals.
The slots are meant to be used from 29 March.
As VA will not have time to get those approvals prior to the time the flights are meant to be in place, they should not be awarded a slot.

There is nothing preventing VA, once they have Japanese approvals, from opening any route to any international airport in Japan, other then HND.

More over, there is nothing requiring IASC give permissions for 5 years. They can give Qantas a day slot for approx 5 years, timed to match with the expiry of their current night slot, then give Qantas the 2nd day slot for 1 or 2 years.
This then allows the use of the slot, and the benefits its use brings, and gives VA a chance to get their paperwork for Japan in order, before then contesting the slot in a year.
If VA makes no move to complete the required paperwork to permit flying to Japan, then IASC will know that they aren't truely interested in the route and can then extend the QF permission. If VA completes the paperwork, or even gets a NRT or KIX flight started, then they would be in a better position to contest getting a HND slot.

 

[Pleb Status]

The slots are meant to be used from 29 March.

Please provide a credible reference that clearly states the new HND flight MUST commence operation on 29 March 2020 and not a single day later.

I am very happy to be educated....

 

[Captain Halliday]

Okay, I’ll play.

The “credible reference” is in the link you posted earlier in the thread. I’ll repost that link so people don’t have to go looking:IASC Announcement

It’s in the second sentence: “The new arrangements will take effect from 29 March 2020.” (My bolding)

It doesn’t say they “might” happen.

Nor does it say they “may”, “could”, or “should” happen.

They have instead used the clear and definitive verb will.

What do I win... popcorn?

 

[Himeno]

China announced who their new slots go to yesterday.

CA Beijing Capital
CZ Beijing Daxing
MU Beijing Daxing
FM Shanghai Pudong

The US slots were announced in May.
DL (ATL, DTW, HNL, PDX, SEA), UA (ORD, LAX, IAD, EWR), AA (DFW, LAX), HA (HNL)

No word on the remaining slots yet for Scandinavia (1), Finland (1), Turkey (1), Italy (1), India (1), Russia (2).
We know which Japanese airlines have the slots for each route, though no idea as yet as to which cities.
ANA; 6 US, 2 China, 1 Russia, 1 Australia, .5 India, Italy, Turkey, Scandinavia
JAL; 6 US, 2 China, 1 Russia, 1 Australia, .5 India, Finland
(not sure how ANA and JAL will agree to split the India flight)

It does not appear that VA have filed their application yet, they have just announced their intention to do so. They have until the 24th to submit an application to IASC.

 

[Pleb Status]

Okay, I’ll play.

The “credible reference” is in the link you posted earlier in the thread. I’ll repost that link so people don’t have to go looking:IASC Announcement

It’s in the second sentence: “The new arrangements will take effect from 29 March 2020.” (My bolding)

It doesn’t say they “might” happen.

Nor does it say they “may”, “could”, or “should” happen.

They have instead used the clear and definitive verb will.

What do I win... popcorn?

This does NOT clearly state that the new HND flight MUST commence operation on 29 March 2020 and not a single day later. It just states that the new slots will be available for use from 29 March 2020 onwards....

Try again with a credible reference that confirms your interpretation...

 

[JessicaTam]

 

[Himeno]

It would seem that some people are just dead set against a certain airline getting 2 slots to the point that they have deemed statements and actions of multiple parties from at least 4 nations, parties which have lots of experience in these matters, to be non credible.

Apparently the actions of the Chinese, Japanese, Australian and US governments, and multiple airlines from those nations, are all wrong because their preferred airline must be allowed to get a slot even though to do so, they would need to complete an 8+ month regularity process in less then 5.

The Qantas application outlined the process required that an airline with no presence in Japan needs to go through in order to get flights started.
Statements and actions by government departments in multiple countries provide the time frame this process needs to be compete by. They are not just pulling dates and time frames out of their behinds. They have experience with this process and access to non public data.
Virgin can not complete the needed processes in the time frame provided. Thus they have a low likelihood of being able start a flight when they would need to.
Their current fleet and financial status further reduces this likelihood.

Just because you don't want Qantas to get both slots, does not mean that the process they outlined is not credible. Nor does it mean that actions and statements by government departments in at least 4 nations, which also support that flights will need to start for the NS20 season, are not credible.

At this stage, I would give QF a 100% chance of getting 1 slot and a 80% chance of getting both. VA would have a 10% chance of getting 1 slot.

I'd rather see QF get both slots and operate both flights from the start of the NS20 season, then 1 slot go unawarded or VA get 1 slot and not be able to operate because they haven't completed the needed paperwork.

There has been multiple occasions with existing HND slots where DL has not operated their flights enough. Not starting flights when they were meant to, randomly changing flights to seasonal without asking if they can, etc, to the point where DOT has asked them to show cause why the slots in question should not be removed from them and reassigned to another airline that can and will operate the slots as required.

 

[getluv]

Err. You are still to demonstrate (with any reference whatsoever) that the new HND flight MUST commence operation on 29 March 2020 and not a single day later. Until you can provide a credible reference clearly stating that is this is the case, it is not the case no matter how much your bias wants it to be. I am happy to be corrected once a credible reference has been provided (which should be available 'everywhere').

Existing operators will obviously start on 29 March 2020 as they have all necessary approvals already and they want to make $$$$ as soon as possible. VA could as well if the necessary approvals are received in time.

You would think VA know what the requirements for the new HND service actually are and believe they can meet them.

From a common sense point of view, why would a one or two month delay be an issue for a service that could operate for ten to twenty years into the future.

So to repeat, awarding both slots to QF will be similar to not awarding one slot to anyone at all....

I did provide and make mention to many credible references. The Air Services Agreement, the IASC invitation, the QF Application. You can source these yourself, this isn't a thesis. There has also been reference by other users earlier on in this thread. I have also give you some actual facts re: HND airport and what other airlines who are affected are doing and how that correlates with QF/VA's situation.

You chose to ignore it because you want the term "must commence". You also have provided me with a useless fact (the Olympics) from Executive Traveller which in itself doesn't make the regulatory issues clear to its readers. I guess because it's not a repurposed media release it would go over the Executive Traveller author and reader's heads, as you have clearly demonstrated. Bias also doesn't help.

If the slots are available from 29 March, and VA can't logically (from a regulatory and business perspective) use them then the IASC can't actually deny QF's request to have both, if QF are meeting all the requirements set out by the IASC. All the IASC would be able to do is restrict the length of time QF would be able to have a slot. Possibly 12-24 months to give VA sufficient time to get its duck in a row, it could also demonstrate to the IASC that it can sustain services to HND, by I don't know, actually having services to Japan.

The eight months to gain regulatory approval is considered best case scenario. Further to this, VA have no established presence in Japan and therefore have to convince IASC that they can sustain daily flights to HND. Competition is one factor in which the IASC assesses applications. Given NH and JL are likely to add additional services, the IASC could determine that there is already a sustainable level of competition to HND.

Anyway, I'm done here.

 

[Captain Halliday]

For the record I don’t mind who gets the slots.

But let’s break it down. Fist step establishing what is or is not a credible reference.

Given that the availability of slots has been announced by the IASC and that airlines must submit their application to the IASC, I’m comfortable that the IASC announcement is a credible reference.

But it’s a democracy.

All those who think IASC statement is a credible reference say aye.

Those against say neigh.*

* I blame @JessicaTam for starting the horse jokes.

 

[jakeseven7]

It would seem that some people are just dead set against a certain airline getting 2 slots to the point that they have deemed statements and actions of multiple parties from at least 4 nations, parties which have lots of experience in these matters, to be non credible.

Just because you don't want Qantas to get both slots, does not mean that the process they outlined is not credible. Nor does it mean that actions and statements by government departments in at least 4 nations, which also support that flights will need to start for the NS20 season, are not credible.

Thank you very much for the detailed unbiased information you are providing this thread

Can I suggest stop feeding the tr......... dead horse (so eloquently put by our friendly moderator!!)

 

[drron]

Though the Japanese Government has changed Aviation standards in the past to help Japanese airlines.

EXCLUSIVE-Japan eased safety standards ahead of Boeing 787 rollout

* Set of 40 proposals adopted by Japan's transport ministry

www.reuters.com

So the unknown is have VA and NH been having talks as I am sure NH doesn't really want QF to get both slots.
Also the Japanese Government is really doing this to increase seats to and from Japan for the Olympics.Giving QF the 2 slots only increases flights to Japan by 1 daily.

On the other hand is VA playing a tactical game and will be happy with the vacated QF spot at NRT?

 

[jakeseven7]

On the other hand is VA playing a tactical game and will be happy with the vacated QF spot at NRT?

I didn't think there was slot restriction at NRT anyway, they could just fly there now @Himeno

 

[Melburnian1]

I've only read the last couple of pages, so apologies if this was answered earlier.

If VA (eventually) operated from Oz to HND, what aircraft would it use and (assuming no decrease in current frequencies elsewhere, perhaps not an assumption one can make with the new CEO reviewing everything) from where would it obtain these aircraft?

 

[dajop]

If VA (eventually) operated from Oz to HND, what aircraft would it use and (assuming no decrease in current frequencies elsewhere, perhaps not an assumption one can make with the new CEO reviewing everything) from where would it obtain these aircraft?

I think this is the assumption everyone IS making. Most likely redeploy from either MEL-HKG or SYD-HKG to serve HND, or less likely from transcontinental service.

 

[Himeno]

I didn't think there was slot restriction at NRT anyway, they could just fly there now @Himeno

Australia and Japan have open skies. Australian carriers, once they have completed the Japanese regularity process (as Qantas outlined in their HND application), can fly to any international airport in Japan, except HND. The only limit being runway availability.
NRT is building a 3rd runway, which is due to open next year, and is extending the 2nd runway. They are also going to reduce the curfew from 2300-0600 to 0030-0500. This will allow for up to ~550 extra movements at NRT a day.
NRT currently has approx 700 per day and a capacity (with 2 runways and longer curfew) of approx 820 per day.

 

[getluv]

I think this is the assumption everyone IS making. Most likely redeploy from either MEL-HKG or SYD-HKG to serve HND, or less likely from transcontinental service.

That would be a big mistake. Even though the situation in HKG is challenging, HKG prime time slots are gold. CX can’t fly additional routes to BNE, SYD, MEL and PER and there is virtually zero access to available slots at “corporate travel” friendly times. It would also mean that QF/CX have effectively neutered VA.

Given the soft domestic market, my money an A330’s would be coming from a transcon.

 

[mlob]

Id personally love to see a flight to Haneda from Brisbane. Us more northern Australians love to head OS for our ski holidays.

 

[Himeno]

A VA application has yet to appear on the IASC website. Applications are normally added within 1 working day of being received, meaning no submission was made by VA last week.
They have until tomorrow (Tues 24th) to get their application in, meaning should VA actually make an application for the HND slots, it should be on the IASC website on Wednesday at the latest.

 

[HS-TQE]

Seeing that it's under 10 minutes before the business day closes, it seems possibly unlikely that VA will formally apply for the Haneda slots (although I won't be surprised if there some complaint which follows up with 'some' incompetence about someone at VA not sending in the application in the due time).

If VA does apply in due course, as per the poster above, the application should appear by sometime tomorrow..