Airlines eye new slots at Haneda (Tokyo)

[HS-TQE]

Looks like VA did get their application in time and is now formally posted on the IASC website.
However pdf link was broken (at the time of this post), assumably the PDF link will be fixed later in the day.

Current Cases and Other Matters

Hong Kong - 15 November 2019 The International Air Services Commission (the Commission) has received an application

www.iasc.gov.au

 

[HS-TQE]

VA applies for BNE-HND, with codeshare partnership with ANA.

Will Virgin Australia launch its long-promised flights to Tokyo?

Virgin faces a ‘use it or lose it’ deadline for its promised daily flights to Japan.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[SeaWolf]

PDF link has now been fixed. I notice that on the first page of the application Virgin has addressed a topic that has been the cause of much angst on this forum:

Virgin Australia is confident of securing all necessary regulatory approvals required to support our planned operation to Haneda. Preparations for our entry to the route have been underway for many months. If Virgin Australia is awarded the allocation of capacity we are seeking, flights will commence on 29 March 2020.

https://www.iasc.gov.au/applications/files/Virgin_Australia-PUBLIC-Application_for_an_allocation_of%20capacity_on_the_Japan_route_Sep_2019.pdf

 

[jase05]

Very interesting times ahead. Good on VA for having a crack at it

 

[Himeno]

"Preparations for our entry to the route have been underway for many months"

How so?
Has VA made any indication, prior to last week, that they were interested in starting a route to Japan? If not, I find that "many months" claim doubtful. No one had any idea if Australia would even be awarded slots in this round. Other then the 24 US slots, no one had any idea before the start of this month as to where the remaining 26 slots would be assigned.

If they were interested in a Japan route prior to this day slot assignment announcement, they could have challenged QF for the night slots when they asked for them to be extended in January. The QF night slot allocation had been due to expire on 19 Dec.

If VA and NH would be allowed to codeshare on an AU-JP route, then QF and JL should also be allowed to. They used to codeshare on the JL BNE-NRT flight before JL had to can it. They aren't allowed to codeshare on their SYD-TYO routes and instead have to codeshare via SIN.

There is a deadline of Oct 2 (next Wed) for submissions about the applications.
I can see QF, MEL, BNE, the Queensland government and/or tourist body and maybe even JL and NH making submissions.

 

[SeaWolf]

How so?
Has VA made any indication, prior to last week, that they were interested in starting a route to Japan?

Reading through the submission there are several mentions of specifics (some contained in the Commercial-in-Confidence version of the submission) such as:

deliverables under the project are being managed to ensure strict compliance with timelines detailed under the program plan to support the launch of flights on 29 March 2020. A copy of our program plan is attached to the confidential version of this submission.

Virgin Australia completed an Operational Feasibility Assessment for the new service in May 2019 and will commence the Airport Induction Program in early October 2019

Work in relation to securing suppliers in the areas of ground handling, catering, crew accommodation, airport infrastructure and information technology at Haneda has already commenced

Virgin Australia has obtained detailed advice from our appointed agent in Japan regarding the regulatory requirements that a new entrant to the route must meet. We have received confirmation that there is ample time for us to address all requirements to support the commencement of services on 29 March 2020. In this regard, it is important to note that Virgin Australia already holds a Permission Certificate/business licence, which was issued to us by the Japanese Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in February 2013. This is the principal approval required to support the commercial activities of an airline in Japan. Copies of this approval and an English language version, a detailed schedule outlining all regulatory requirements that Virgin Australia must meet in Japan, together with English language excerpts from Japan’s Civil Aeronautics Act 1952 are attached to the confidential version of this submission.

Virgin Australia has already met with key stakeholders as part of working towards entry to the market. These include the Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau, the Australian Embassy in Tokyo, Tourism Australia, Tourism and Events Queensland and a number of Japanese tourism bodies and large travel agencies.

It would be worthwhile giving the submission a complete reading.

 

[woodborer]

"Preparations for our entry to the route have been underway for many months"

How so?
Has VA made any indication, prior to last week, that they were interested in starting a route to Japan? If not, I find that "many months" claim doubtful. No one had any idea if Australia would even be awarded slots in this round. Other then the 24 US slots, no one had any idea before the start of this month as to where the remaining 26 slots would be assigned.

Just because they hadn't announced anything to the public, doesn't mean it wasn't happening. All sorts of projects and investigations go on inside lots of companies all the time. Doesn't mean we know about them.

 

[jakeseven7]

Ugh Brisbane... (no offence to Queenslanders). Bummer. Was hoping for MEL for the VA submission.

 

[Himeno]

You both completely missed the point of my prior post. Looks like you both just read the first part and ignored the rest.

No one had any idea that Australia would get more HND slots before Sep 3rd. Thus there is no reason for VA to have been talking to Japan about approvals before this month unless they were looking at possible service to NRT, KIX, NGO or CTS.
If VA had been working on Japanese approvals since May, then were they just going to sit on them until maybe more HND slots became available?
If the MLIT approved VA's AOC in 2013 as they claim in their application, then VA could have put in for the night HND slot that QF currently holds when QF first applied for it in Dec 2014 (or even beat QF to applying for it) or challenged QF for it when it was renewed at the start of the year.

Given VAs actions to date and the timing of their announcements, it would appear that the only reason they have applied for HND now, is because QF did. Based on the statements in their application, they are suggesting that they could have applied for the existing HND slot at any time during 2014 before QF asked for it, contested the QF renewal of that same slot 9 months ago or started NRT service at any time during the last 6 years.
If QF hadn't asked for the new HND slots, it would seem that VA wouldn't have either.

VA has a history of opening an international route, losing money, then closing the route a few years later. If they do get a slot, I could easily see them "pull a DL" and randomly make the flight seasonal in a year or two.

 

[AIRwin]

Ugh Brisbane... (no offence to Queenslanders). Bummer. Was hoping for MEL for the VA submission.

At least it's on the way between Tokyo and MEL/SYD...

 

[dajop]

Ugh Brisbane... (no offence to Queenslanders). Bummer. Was hoping for MEL for the VA submission.

What are NH's plans for its slot? Another SYD or a MEL service? If it's planned as codeshare, and speculating entirely here , it's conceivable that VA/NH serve each of BNE, SYD, MEL & PER,

 

[p--and--t]

Just pondering the viability of the BNE-HND-BNE route for a new player.

I haven't seen any stats whatsoever, and I'm totally out of the loop, but my suspicions get aroused when my experience is that it was way way easier to get a FF awards seat on QF into BNE last year than it was in/out of SYD or MEL.

What does that say about load factors/demand on that specific sector. Maybe nothing, maybe a lot.

 

[Himeno]

Just pondering the viability of the BNE-HND-BNE route for a new player.

I haven't seen any stats whatsoever, and I'm totally out of the loop, but my suspicions get aroused when my experience is that it was way way easier to get a FF awards seat on QF into BNE last year than it was in/out of SYD or MEL.

What does that say about load factors/demand on that specific sector. Maybe nothing, maybe a lot.

JAL used to fly BNE-NRT prior to their bankruptcy restructure. They would have data from that route.
They'll also have data on JQ11 (OOL-NRT) via their partnership with Jetstar and their codeshare on that flight (JL5082).
With flights to MEL and SYD, JAL returning to BNE would be logical. Which flight they use for HND is debatable though.

ANA may view a 2nd flight to SYD, and improving aircraft use (they currently park the 787 in SYD all day) as better then opening a new route to MEL or BNE.

 

[jase05]

What are NH's plans for its slot? Another SYD or a MEL service? If it's planned as codeshare, and speculating entirely here , it's conceivable that VA/NH serve each of BNE, SYD, MEL & PER,

NH to ADL?

Should have added this

 

[getluv]

Sidenote: I wonder if Pleb Status noticed the emphasis on "commence on 29 March" in VA’s application.

Re: Application
VA comes across as having massive FOMO (totally justified). It's going to be difficult for the IASC to deny VA's application. The extra capacity is guaranteed going with a split and aligns with the purpose of the providing Australia with the two slots.

VA has regular meetings with tourism bodies and airports, I'm sure potential VA services to Japan would have come up. Whether VA had any intention of actually starting flights up until two weeks ago is another story.

The parts QF will question:
1. Whether competition benefits have been met (it will still be a three horse race)
2. NH's service to PER arrives at 9PM. Apart from travel to SYD, MEL, BNE what wider network is VA referring to help passengers connect.
3. Inclusion of Delta moving their ops to HND. I thought the purpose was to get travellers to Japan not transit. Anyway, this suggests to me that VA are concerned about commercial performance already.
4. VA advising the Agency on the progress of regulatory throughout suggests there is a possibility that VA will not meet the deadlines.

Re: New Routes
I wouldn't be so quick to assume NH/JL will add capacity. NH needs VA as much as VA need NH. NH's load factors aren't great out of SYD and PER Airport/WA Government are basically bank rolling PER-NRT. Moving PER flights to HND would sound more financially viable and less risky in the current climate.

On the proviso QF and VA get one slot each, I also wouldn't assume QF would add any new capacity to Tokyo. Instead will probably go down the line of requesting code sharing with JL.

While QF will be somewhat annoyed, they will have to know VA will be preoccupied making losses on another route and having to cut capacity out of Domestic or HKG.

ANA may view a 2nd flight to SYD, and improving aircraft use (they currently park the 787 in SYD all day) as better then opening a new route to MEL or BNE.

NH does not have to add frequency to SYD to get the benefits of better utilisation of aircraft. Likewise for QF.

NH chooses to park in SYD all day. NH could depart SYD in the middle of the afternoon for a late night arrival into Tokyo but commercially prefers an early morning arrival.The HND night slots are for landing/take off between 2200-0600.

Both NH and QF will just have more flexibility with whatever is decided.

 

[moa999]

A few direct questions should determine whether VA has been working on this for a few months and might be ready to start in March, or whether its a recent thought

 

[Isochronous]

Will they revenue-share with NH on SYD and PER service?

 

[oz_mark]

No one had any idea that Australia would get more HND slots before Sep 3rd. Thus there is no reason for VA to have been talking to Japan about approvals before this month unless they were looking at possible service to NRT, KIX, NGO or CTS.

If you believe that VA and ANA put together their partnership in the last two weeks, then you can believe that. I suspect they have been looking at it longer, and the slots becoming available probably pushed things along a bit.

 

[GlennT]

I believe it would be a mistake for Qantas to move MEL-NRT to MEL-HND. For OW connections the existing arrangement is good. HND is progressively a *A hub, and provides a seamless connection of ANA flights to Europe and other destinations. The land transfer between NRT and HND is a royal PITA in my opinion, and to be avoided in possible. The VA proposal does not throw up these problems, being in neither alliance (yet).

 

[drron]

Glenn the existing arrangements at NRT are going to change a lot.
JAL has already switched their daytime flight to BKK ,which we use regularly,to HND.
Their LHR flights now leave from HND as well as a BA flight.
AA have just announced extra flights to HND and are axing 1 DFW-NRT and 1 LAX-NRT flight plus the 3x weekly Ord-NRT flights.
They will only have 1 DFW-NRT flight now coming in to NRT.