Article: Qantas Expects International Airfares to Come Down

[Virgin Bart]

No black friday sale for QF this year and even JQs sale is very limited in routes and dates.

I too noticed how lack lustre the JQ sale was.

 

[dajop]

Basic economics theory really, airlines have it good finally but that will also mean others see an opportunity.

Australia-US might remain constrained, as QF won't necessarily want to boost supply too much, and DL/AA/UA are basically answerable to the same Wall street aviation analysts who, from the outside, seem to reward alignment and punish deviations across the three carriers who therefore can operate cosily without actually colluding. OK, being a bit cynical here, but I'm not sure any of them will be in any hurry to expand capacity lest the others follow.

 

[mviy]

Black Friday comes too close to a peak travel period for it to be a good time for QF to do sale fares unless it feels there's a lack of demand for February onwards travel and a sale might entice some to book that now.

 

[mrsterryn]

With hopes for a sale , however Qantas fares would need to come down again significantly to become a consideration again.
My data point of Syd to LHR return premium economy latest, is that the price has gone back up to $7205 (yes premium economy)

 

[Saab34]

QF and VA groups are enjoying record margins so we might not see much capacity growth in the medium term.

Rex and Bonza will be required to break the market I think. Rex appear to only be adding 2 aircraft next year. Bonza unknown but could have a small number.

 

[SYD]

Black Friday comes too close to a peak travel period for it to be a good time for QF to do sale fares unless it feels there's a lack of demand for February onwards travel and a sale might entice some to book that now.

It can be (and often are) for future travel periods beyond impending Xmas/New Year. I would be very happy for some decent deals outside 2023 School Hols!

 

[sudoer]

I vaguely recall the opening of additional slots in HND just before Covid was somehow going to change that but I could be wrong. Or perhaps VA picking up some slots scuppered that plan?

Additional QF slots have gone to other ports (MEL from memory). VA slots are still allocated but use-it-or-lose-it by March 2023. They either need to launch their own flights, wet lease, or relinquish.

 

[JohnK]

Wife just sent me a post from Facebook advertising Qantas sale to BKK via a travel agent.

SYD-BKK from $1280 return
BNE-BKK via SIN $1260 return

Seriously? More than double some of the airfares available pre-covid. I can see why Qantas announced 1.45 billion half year profit.

 

[OATEK]

QF have launched their "London fly away sale" fares, and boy do they show exactly the opposite to the claims that fares will start to come down!




Note: especially the fare for a one day return 30/11/22 to 30/11/22 for $11k.

 

[jpp42]

SYD-BKK from $1280 return
BNE-BKK via SIN $1260 return

Seriously? More than double some of the airfares available pre-covid. I can see why Qantas announced 1.45 billion half year profit.

I found some flights on Scoot in Feb for $665 return (SYD-SIN-BKK). Thai is offering $889 return for nonstop on the same dates (which is probably close to what Scoot will cost you by the time you add bags and meals). Things will come down...Qantas will never match Scoot of course, nor should they, but I think these are decent fares given current oil prices.

 

[JohnK]

I found some flights on Scoot in Feb for $665 return (SYD-SIN-BKK). Thai is offering $889 return for nonstop on the same dates (which is probably close to what Scoot will cost you by the time you add bags and meals). Things will come down...Qantas will never match Scoot of course, nor should they, but I think these are decent fares given current oil prices.

I wouldn't expect Qantas to match Scoot but before Covid hit, Qantas were offering ~$650-$750 return and SQ ~$700-$800 return.

Now the airfares are bordering on ridiculous. CX coming in should bring airfares down a little.

Funny I booked SQ one-way CNX-BNE for wife and daughter for ~AUD1700. Scoot wanted $1000+ each on some of the days. Really unbelievable what's going on.

 

[SYD]

QF have launched their "London fly away sale" fares, and boy do they show exactly the opposite to the claims that fares will start to come down!

and yet, QF is one of the “cheaper“ options booking well in advance!

 

[jrfsp]

ACCC monitoring airlines over price gouging concerns

The consumer watchdog is closely monitoring airlines and says it would be "concerned" if they withheld capacity in order to keep airfares high.

www.abc.net.au

We’ll see, ACCC is usually a toothless tiger

 

[coyote25]

ACCC will really only get involved in enforcement if there is collusion between the airlines or unconscionable or illegal terms.

I’m not sure the airlines are directly working together for higher prices but there is public signaling to competitors whether that is enough to prove anti competitive behaviour is hard to say.

ACCC is signed up to the theory that market forces find the right price settings (supply and demand balance) unless anti competitive behaviour or illegal collusion is occurring.

It’s not ACCC’s current role to determine the right price companies should offer unless legislated for them to do so.

High prices suck but don’t look for ACCC to push lower prices without a smoking gun of anti competitive or collusive behaviour.

 

[jrfsp]

ACCC will really only get involved in enforcement if there is collusion between the airlines or unconscionable or illegal terms.

I’m not sure the airlines are directly working together for higher prices but there is public signaling to competitors whether that is enough to prove anti competitive behaviour is hard to say.

ACCC is signed up to the theory that market forces find the right price settings (supply and demand balance) unless anti competitive behaviour or illegal collusion is occurring.

It’s not ACCC’s current role to determine the right price companies should offer unless legislated for them to do so.

High prices suck but don’t look for ACCC to push lower prices without a smoking gun of anti competitive or collusive behaviour.

I very much doubt they are colluding but the question was whether they are intentionally holding back capacity to drive yield higher

 

[mrsterryn]

I do wonder if the current issue with mortgages interest rates raising might impact travel ? Which in turn actually does end up having cheaper flights ?

 

[mviy]

I do wonder if the current issue with mortgages interest rates raising might impact travel ? Which in turn actually does end up having cheaper flights ?

They are saying that a lot of fixed interest mortgages will be expiring in the second half of next year so that might not help much for flights before late 2023 or even 2024.

Due to the rock bottom interest rates, a lot more homeowners than usual fixed their mortgages.

 

[jrfsp]

I do wonder if the current issue with mortgages interest rates raising might impact travel ? Which in turn actually does end up having cheaper flights ?

Will definitely have an impact next year. Demand for flights is already starting to soften in North America and Europe as inflation bites.

If China opens up and increases capacity that should improve intl pricing too.

 

[jpp42]

If China opens up and increases capacity that should improve intl pricing too.

I think this aspect of things is underestimated - the Chinese airlines offered numerous options to Europe, at great rates, and overall provided capacity into Australia from much of Asia as well. I did some study using the numbers at International airlines timetable summary , picking the maximum number of seats available during the relevant seasons (last full season pre-Covid, and most recent data):

2018-2019 - Northern Winter season

Mainland China
AIR CHINA -28 flights, 8449 seats
BEIJING CAPITAL AIRLINES - 6 flights, 1836 seats
CHINA EASTERN - 50 flights, 12748 seats
CHINA SOUTHERN - 72 flights, 21900 seats
DONGHAI AIRLINES - 2 flights, 338 seats
HAINAN AIRLINES - 14 flights, 3520 seats
SICHUAN AIRLINES - 5 flights, 1390 seats
TIANJIN AIRLINES - 5 flights, 1429 seats
XIAMEN AIRLINES - 12 flights, 2820 seats
JETSTAR - 2 flights, 670 seats
QANTAS - 12 flights, 3266 seats

Maximum number of seats per week in this period: 53512 from Chinese carriers, 3936 from Jetstar/Qantas, for 57,448 seats total.

Hong Kong
CATHAY PACIFIC - 79 flights, 26198 seats
QANTAS - 28 flights, 9541 seats
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA - 14 flights, 3850 seats
Total - 39,589 seats

Taipei
CHINA AIRLINES - 24 flights, 7864 seats
EVA AIR - 5 flights, 1545 seats
Total - 9409 seats

Greater China total - 106,446 seats

2022 - 2023 - Northern Winter

CHINA EASTERN - 1 flight, 314 seats
CHINA SOUTHERN - 1 flight, 314 seats
XIAMEN AIRLINES - 2 flights, 570 seats

Total - 1198 seats

Hong Kong
CATHAY PACIFIC - 38 flights, 12912 seats

Taipei
CHINA AIRLINES - 17 flights, 5202 seats
EVA AIR - 4 flights, 1368 seats
Total - 6570 seats

Greater China total - 20,680 , or

So even though some traffic to HKG has returned, it's still only a third of what it was, mainland capacity is only at 2%, and total greater China capacity at 19% of what it was. (I included Taipei because it might have gotten some diverted traffic to certain destinations.)

 

[drron]

Very interesting. I looked up Y flights MEL - LHR towards the end of next year. Booking through VA got a return price of just under $2000 and the flights were on SQ. Buying through SQ was dearer.
As well QR flights at just over $2300 whether you booked through QR, VA or BA but no mention of a QF fare for those flights.
Search was on Expedia.