Australian Housing Affordability Discussion

[whatmeworry]

We don't take out a loan to start a business, grow a business, or create some kind of positive economic activity.

We take out a loan to buy a house which we probably can't really afford.

Sad thing is, banks would rather lend for a home loan then give a loan for a business.

 

[amaroo]

Back in 2003 I had a neighbour that held a senior position in a Big 4 treasury ... he was deadset certain that the "bubble" was going to burst ... he cashed in the Mosman house and moved West. I've often wondered how he's feeling now

 

[penegal]

Everyone is an expert.

But you have to remember the fundamentals of Australian property haven't changed in decades. As a general rule - We aren't increasing supply to match demand. Slow release of new land, and tough regulation for redevelopment slow our new stock coming onto the market (as a whole).

Of course there are individual exceptions (e.g. Melbourne docklands) where huge lots of apartments sit vacant.

 

[penegal]

Also - Australian employers are generous - Again - as a general rule - we kept everyone employed over the last 7 years of crisis and recession.

Wages didn't go up much, but we didn't force that many foreclosures due to unemployment, which would increase supply to the market and take heat off prices.

 

[JohnK]

Back in 2003 I had a neighbour that held a senior position in a Big 4 treasury ... he was deadset certain that the "bubble" was going to burst ... he cashed in the Mosman house and moved West. I've often wondered how he's feeling now

What has he done with that money though?

Personally I would be content to cash in now and take whatever profit I can get. Then I can start from scratch. Just waiting for something to settle in place before deciding.

 

[moa999]

Back in 2003 I had a neighbour that held a senior position in a Big 4 treasury ... he was deadset certain that the "bubble" was going to burst ... he cashed in the Mosman house and moved West. I've often wondered how he's feeling now

Well he potentially did OK - if he bought back in say 2005.

Certainly in Sydney many purchases in 2001/02 were underwater by 2005.

 

[Denali]

..... Slow release of new land, .....

Ugggh. 30+yrs ago my husband bought 10 acres in western Sydney.... lately we've been getting sniffs from developers, going to meet with one on Sunday, but any "slower" and hubby will be dead before the land is allowed to be developed for residential.

Waiting, waiting, waiting...

 

[burmans]

Slow release of new land, and tough regulation for redevelopment slow our new stock coming onto the market (as a whole).

Personally am not so sure I'd like to change the tough regulation aspect substantially, but certainly agree on the speed part. There has to be in my view, a more pragmatic way to get development approval through (much) faster without just dropping all the safeguards. There is too much bureaucratic red tape that slows things down without necessarily getting the required outcomes the regulation as supposed to be there for.

And yes, some wholesale rezoning would help.

 

[Deleted member]

Ugggh. 30+yrs ago my husband bought 10 acres in western Sydney.... lately we've been getting sniffs from developers, going to meet with one on Sunday, but any "slower" and hubby will be dead before the land is allowed to be developed for residential.

Waiting, waiting, waiting...

Maybe play hard to get?

 

[penegal]

Personally am not so sure I'd like to change the tough regulation aspect substantially, but certainly agree on the speed part. There has to be in my view, a more pragmatic way to get development approval through (much) faster without just dropping all the safeguards. There is too much bureaucratic red tape that slows things down without necessarily getting the required outcomes the regulation as supposed to be there for.

And yes, some wholesale rezoning would help.

I agree to some extent.

The quality of dwellings we have in this country is in part due to excellent building codes that mean we don't have anywhere near as many shoddy builds.

You never hear about it in our media, but many "developing" countries have buildings spontaneously collapse due to poor design, use of inferior materials or poor building practices.

 

[alieninperth]

I agree to some extent.

The quality of dwellings we have in this country is in part due to excellent building codes that mean we don't have anywhere near as many shoddy builds.

You never hear about it in our media, but many "developing" countries have buildings spontaneously collapse due to poor design, use of inferior materials or poor building practices.

If you want an international example, have a look a Haiti and its lack of building regs. The devastation following the earthquake there was incredible. Now have a look at Chile and the impact of a similar sized earthquake. With their stricter building regs, the devastation was nowhere near as widespread. The country was able to operate and recover relatively quickly.

 

[whatmeworry]

AMP Bank list of apartments that are on a blacklist.

http://www.domain.com.au/news/apart...klists-more-than-140-suburbs-20160323-gnpj2l/

 

[UP4014]

AMP Bank list of apartments that are on a blacklist.

http://www.domain.com.au/news/apart...klists-more-than-140-suburbs-20160323-gnpj2l/

Qld seems to be well represented.

 

[cove]

Our family has four properties in the listed zones. Fortunately all bought about 10 years ago before prices became ridiculous. Actually one my son bought is only two years ago but he bought it well with a fast settlement offer.

 

[penegal]

The Melbourne ones make sense to me. Each of those areas already have empty stock, with more being built and coming online over the next 6, 12, 18, 24 months, etc.

Thankfully I have no exposure. The quality of the bottom end of the market in those areas is quite poor (e.g. shoe-box apartments with paper thin walls). The higher end of the market is out of my price range. There are some lovely homes in those areas, but they tend not to come up for sale often.


Interestingly some developers are already offering 12 or 24 month rental guarantees at a 5% yield on their already inflated sale prices.

 

[cove]

About time Melbourne gets into over supply. The idea that a couple or a single can repay a million or two home loan is just not going to be easy. Removing the 30% developers margin would certainly make apartments more affordable in Melbourne.

 

[whatmeworry]

About time Melbourne gets into over supply. The idea that a couple or a single can repay a million or two home loan is just not going to be easy. Removing the 30% developers margin would certainly make apartments more affordable in Melbourne.

Actually an article about oversupply in Melbourne the over day.

http://www.domain.com.au/news/overs...n_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_facebook

Seems Chinese love Melbourne apartments.

 

[JohnK]

About time Melbourne gets into over supply. The idea that a couple or a single can repay a million or two home loan is just not going to be easy. Removing the 30% developers margin would certainly make apartments more affordable in Melbourne.

Stop saturating the market with new developments.

What's happening in Sydney and more specifically Canterbury Road is stupidity at its best. The wrong people are in power.

 

[moa999]

Stop saturating the market with new developments.

What's happening in Sydney and more specifically Canterbury Road is stupidity at its best. The wrong people are in power.

If you don't build prices will go up even more.. We have a growing population, development is needed, and it can't all be 100km from cbd

 

[JohnK]

If you don't build prices will go up even more.. We have a growing population, development is needed, and it can't all be 100km from cbd

I sat on Sukhumvit Rd for 40+ minutes on Friday night literally going nowhere. Total gridlock. Ended up walking the 2 kms or so to dinner venue. That is unacceptable. It will happen in Sydney soon.