Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[kpc]

There goes interstate hols for Sydneysiders as school hols starts next week

 

[Pushka]

There goes interstate hols for Sydneysiders as school hols starts next week

And likewise for people wanting to visit Sydney from the other states.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser.

New case (in today's report) linked to Arcare cluster. In quarantine for whole infectious period.

Nurse confirmed as Kappa (Which in turns confirms link to that the patient, and hence to the Arcare Cluster. ie Not caught elsewhere).

 

[jase05]

And likewise for people wanting to visit Sydney from the other states.

Yep, was meant to be heading over next Friday for the NRL again but might have to cancel

 

[Flying mermaid]

And likewise for people wanting to visit Sydney from the other states.

Yep Dr FM’s jinx is alive and well. She gave up on getting to Melbourne to visit a friend after having to cancel a flight and every time she thought about trying again something happened. However she is booked to go to Sydney next weekend ……. Currently only Waverley LGA is a hotspot, but I don’t think she can risk it expanding while she is there and ending up in 14 days quarantine in Brisbane on return

 

[Lynda2475]

There goes interstate hols for Sydneysiders as school hols starts next week

Depnds on where you were planning to go and what parst of Sydney you live in or have been to.

A total of 6 cases linked to this cluster over 3 days , doesnt meet definition of a hot spot, neither the NSW Premier nor Feds have declared Waverly LGA a hot spot nor locked anyone other than close contacts down. Casual contacts are test and iso until negative result received.

There isnt any justification for a city wide lockdown, which is why there isnt one. Similarly no good reason to lock whole of Sydney or NSW from travelling, but we know which states will likely over react and do so. Like last winter border closures will simply result in a spending boom from locals within the state at places like Byron Bay.

Based on Hazards comments of casual contact the latest guy was standing within 10 - 50cms of the limo driver (surely he should have been charged by now for breaching Covid work protocols, along with his employer), so complacency re physical distance is a factor.

Hope they are also checking footage from escalators and especially lifts where @sshats dont obey the covid quotas. The layout of Bondi Westfield is woeful, one has to walk across half the centre to navigate between some parts of some floors.

I thought fleeting contact was fake news

Ha! Incorrect, it was called out as not being new news. It was spin on aeresol transmission between strangers which has been happening forever and well before this latest Vic outbreak. "Fleeting transmission" is latest catch phrase with certain people using it as a scare tactic, omitting fact it was whole reason for introducing the 2m physical distance from strangers guideline. Amazing how short memories are, and those claiming this is new forget that when numbers were higher the tracing was less detailed not to mention brief interactions like bws berala or butchers club already well publicised.

Also no new mystery or cases linked to the possible HQ transmission now past incubation period, so as predicted a non event, because the positives were already in supervised iso at a health hotel.

 

[jakeseven7]

And likewise for people wanting to visit Sydney from the other states.

Yes unfortunately it feels like it’s only a matter of time before NSW is cut off again

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Droplet vs Aerosol Transmission

The 2m (or 1.5m etc) rule was brought in due to the likely droplet transmission range and not the aerosol transmission range. With aerosolisation the virus floats and so the virus spread is not limited to 2m, and also importantly is not temporally limited either as it may float till another catches it (Either by the virus floating to another location, or by remaining buoyant for another to intersect) whereas droplet will fall fairly quickly.

Fleeting Transmission

As has already been pointed out BWS, Butchers club all had direct customer to interactions between the cases of customer to assistant.

Pizza gate caused such a flurry at the time as it was thought to a possible fleeting transmission case from either droplet/aerosol/fomite spread. Subsequently it was shown that he had actually had longer contact.

While contact was not lengthy on those occasions, it was more than a brief and more than a few seconds and there was a known interchange between the carrier and the infected. They were not fleeting transmission as Sutton was using the term, and as Gladys and Haddan both have now also used the term this week with the same meaning. It is not a Butcher Cub/BWS transmission type event.

The fleeting transmission has been reported for cases that where known to be in the same space, or nearby, at point in time or just afterwards (ie aerosols may have been floating and the fleeting is in regards to either the spreader and/ or infected person catching the virus in a very brief period of time (ie only a fleeting contact. So not say sitting at adjoining tables). As Sutton reported at that time such fleeting transmission cases had not occurred in Victoria in previous outbreaks from known cases. He did qualify it that not all cases were known.

Haddan and Glady's having also joined Sutton recently in using the fleeting transmission/contact term in the same manner as Sutton was using it.

ie Haddan today:

"Each had stood not far away from each other for a very short period of time and then it would appear that one of them possibly moved through the airspace that the other one had occupied.​

​

"That is becoming a fairly accepted situation now that this is the type of crossover event that can occur.​

​

​

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In short both the Delta and Kapp variants are considered to be more transmissible than many other variants, and moreso than the variants that had been in Victoria before (which are the variants that Sutton was comparing Kappa to).

 

[jakeseven7]

Testing rates 'not great' as Sydney faces 'near and present' danger​

With just 26,631 tests administered yesterday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard urges Sydney residents to take the "near and present danger" of the state's COVID cluster more seriously.

COVID testing rates 'not great' as Sydney faces 'near and present' danger — as it happened

With just 26,631 tests administered yesterday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard urges Sydney residents to take the "near and present danger" of the state's COVID cluster more seriously.

www.abc.net.au

 

[bcworld]

No need to isolate between test and test result?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1406054173108432903

 

[mhen]

No need to isolate between test and test result?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1406054173108432903

Casual contacts – Get tested immediately (people with no symptoms do not need to self-isolate)
If you have been to any of these locations during the time and date indicated you should:

• immediately get tested even if you have no symptoms
• watch for COVID-19 symptoms and get retested should any symptoms recur.

People with no symptoms do not need to isolate while waiting for their test result.

____

So NSW now has 3 categories:

Close contacts – Get tested immediately and self-isolate for 14 days​

Casual contacts – Get tested immediately and self-isolate until you get a negative result​

Casual contacts – Get tested immediately (people with no symptoms do not need to self-isolate)

 

[Must...Fly!]

Curious approach. Not sure I agree with NSW on this one.

However, that is a net cast far and wide. Perhaps these people would have otherwise previously fallen in to the "monitor for symptoms" category.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Curious approach. Not sure I agree with NSW on this one.

However, that is a net cast far and wide. Perhaps these people would have otherwise previously fallen in to the "monitor for symptoms" category.

I think one reason behind it may be that they are worried that a number of people will not test as they do not want to isolate as it would interfere with their social plans, or working etc.

This way those that will go out/work etc anyway, may at least test now.

 

[Lynda2475]

BWS, Butchers club all had direct customer to interactions between the cases of customer to assistant

Untrue, not all of the BWS cases had direct interaction with the infected employee, he wasnt the cashier, some where just in the store at the same time.

And nothing you have posted proves that aersol transmission is new. You are assuming all previous cases were from touching or droplets, but aerosols have been present all along. There are people all over the worldwide (including hundreds during Melbourne's second wave) who have no idea who infected them, many whom were taking care to keep distance, practice good hygiene etc, where the only thing that makes sense is aerosol transmission. The huge number of cases in hospital staff in many places also proves this.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes unfortunately it feels like it’s only a matter of time before NSW is cut off again

And WA has moved, slamming border restrictions on arriving NSW visitors

——


The WA Government has just introduced strict new conditions for travellers arriving in Western Australia from New South Wales.

Effective immediately – all arrivals must be tested for COVID-19 (on arrival or within 48 hours) and self-quarantine until receiving a negative result.

COVID testing rates 'not great' as Sydney faces 'near and present' danger — as it happened

With just 26,631 tests administered yesterday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard urges Sydney residents to take the "near and present danger" of the state's COVID cluster more seriously.

www.abc.net.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

And nothing you have posted proves that aersol transmission is new.

For the various obvious reason that 1/ It is isn't and 2/ I did not say that aerosol transmission is new.

I however did however say that it was not the reason for the 2m distance rule which you stated it was for. That was for droplet spread.



However when the pandemic started it was though that aerosolised transmission was mainly limited to settings where patients were very sick (ie exhaling large viral loads) and/or were having invasive procedures like intubation.

After some time it was instead realised that aerosolised transmission was occurring from some persons who were not very unwell, or having invasive procedures. This has been a driver of a number of the breaches in HQ .


What has been stated is that the Kappa and Delta Strains are more transmissible than the strains that had been in circulation in Victoria before.
What has also been stated in Vic, and now in NSW that with these new strains is that transmission can more readily be transmitted with fleeting contact and is now more commonly presenting.


If what is happening in NSW is no different, why is NSW Health now acting more strictly?

 

[Must...Fly!]

And WA has moved, slamming border restrictions on arriving NSW visitors

——


The WA Government has just introduced strict new conditions for travellers arriving in Western Australia from New South Wales.

Effective immediately – all arrivals must be tested for COVID-19 (on arrival or within 48 hours) and self-quarantine until receiving a negative result.

COVID testing rates 'not great' as Sydney faces 'near and present' danger — as it happened

With just 26,631 tests administered yesterday, NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard urges Sydney residents to take the "near and present danger" of the state's COVID cluster more seriously.

www.abc.net.au

To me, if you take a zero covid approach, what you must do is force the cost of said testing on to the individual and don't remove the requirement when community cases go back to zero in the other state.

But I believe a zero covid approach is now basically lunacy (if it wasn't before)

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Untrue, not all of the BWS cases had direct interaction with the infected employee, he wasnt the cashier, some where just in the store at the same time.

Just reading on Berala.

Colleague of transport worker infects one BWS Staff Member on Dec 20.

That staff member then infects a second staff member, and between them they worked every day from December 22 to 31.
Their work while infectious was described as serving customers, stocking shelves and packing bags for customers.

So two infected employees work in the store for an extended period of time no doubt spreading between them throughout the store quite a significant viral load. In such a setting I am not surprised that some customers who entered the store got infected.


I personally see this very different than the two people walking past each other for seconds at Westpoint. Or to woman in her 70s who tested positive on Thursday for only sitting outside a cafe the initial case had visited.


Or the other cases where two other people have coincided briefly. We are not talking about cases that have entered into a covid loaded setting. We are talking about when the both infected person, and the person that they have they have infected have not been in that setting for what had previously been considered to be a significant amount of time.

And it is not any one case, it is not just if it has happened at all before, it is the proportion. The trend in how transmission recently has been occurring is different in a significant proportion of cases.

 

[RooFlyer]

TBH I haven't been following the latest outbreaks in Victoria or NSW closely - they are not that relevant to me and fortunately I've got lots of other, useful distractions. Certainly this thread has ceased to be very informative, with all the tit-for-tat type postings.

So a question, inviting speculation. . These 'fleeting' transmissions, in NSW and Victoria. What are the chances - could it be, on what is known - that the transmission occurred OTHER than at that particular fleeting instance? Unless the authorities have GPS tracking on all the relevant people's total movements (and, perhaps all the unknown relevant people) OR those involved (and perhaps not yet involved) can recount with 100% accuracy their movements relative to each other for their respective infectious periods, can some more direct transmission routes be ruled out?

Genuine question, for those who have followed the 'evidence' closely. I'm thinking: OK, the authorities can spot 2 people brushing past each other. In the absence of other info they say "Ah ha! - There's the transmission point!" But how likely is it that there are other transmission events, perhaps involving unknown carriers, not appreciated? There is no way I could recall my movements within, say 10 minutes and within, say, 10 metres for the past 3-5 days. And I could be an asymptomatic carrier at any time.

I wonder if there is a happiness with the authorities to seize upon the 'fleeting contact' hypothesis, to keep the fear factor up and the community generally compliant?

 

[Lynda2475]

But I believe a zero covid approach is now basically lunacy (if it wasn't before)

It was always lunacy, and never supposed to be the goal.

In such a setting I am not surprised that some customers who entered the store got infected.

Several of the customers popped in for a minute grabbed a bottle/case, paid and left whilst the worker was stacking shelves elsewhere, not a lot different imo.

I personally see this very different than the two people walking past each other for seconds at Westpoint.

I wasnt aware there had been a case at Westpoint (which is a casino in Hobart)

Obviously you mean Westfield Bondi, where the Limo driver and his wife (who was also positve) spent several hours visiting numeous stores and the cinema, leaving virus fragments all over the centre. Two workers indoor at BWS, not really different to positive shoppers in a shopping centre.

Hazard said CCTV showed the other gentlemen stood as close as 10cms and as far as 50cms for up to a miniute (about the same time it takes to buy a slab of beer at BWS) and we dont know what the pair may have also corssed paths eleswhere in the centre too (lifts, bathrooms, esclator not everywhere has CCTV).

I maintain that aersols have been a spreading mechanism since the start, but people were more viligent in keeping their distance so was less common and are more compalcent now coinciding with us having better surveilance.

Post automatically merged: Jun 19, 2021

I wonder if there is a happiness with the authorities to seize upon the 'fleeting contact' hypothesis, to keep the fear factor up and the community generally compliant?

This is what I think, especially in the way it has been used to justify lockdowns in Victoria.

The messaging is different NSW, measured (no claims of it being a beast) with focussed restrictions.

What will be interesting is to see what happens next, given the contrasting approach to restrictions. So far each time there have been Delta outbreaks in AUstralia its not taken hold the way the earlier variants did last year.