Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[dajop]

Obviously there are many metrics but the unemployment rates in May 2021:

Vic: 4.8%
NSW: 5.0%

Yes, and labour market participation slightly higher in Vic @ 66.6% vs 66% but on the flipside, "Underemployment" higher in Vic (7.7% vs 7.3%), It seems there isn't huge differences between states, but obviously some sectors (relying on international tourism and students) harder hit than others.

Google mobility data also gives a good guide to economic activity. There's an automatic assumption that lockdown = catastrophic economic effect, no lockdown = business as usual, but its more complicated than that. For example "retail and recreation" activity in City of Sydney last weekend was down 38% on the weekend before and in City of Waverley down 60%, whilst Penrith was up 6%. Surprisingly perhaps Northern Beaches also down 25%, maybe a reaction to what they went through at Christmas time, or was it just the weather being particularly bad?

I suspect in the hotspot suburbs the effect is akin to a lockdown, whilst in broader Sydney, it preserves overall economic activity much better.

 

[justinbrett]

Though it was indicated after that statement that the positive case today (result known at 10am) in Vic who had attended a social event in NSW under investigation by NSW Health had not been contacted by them. That would seem to suggest that statement is not completely accurate.

Possibly you should wait for the facts before throwing stones at NSW Health.

 

[dajop]

Should I get out the popcorn again?

 

[drron]

Should I get out the popcorn again?

I never put it away.

 

[bcworld]

I'm curious why the international terminal is not listed as an exposure site. We know a positive case left from there...and returned. But the exposures are only for the specific flights themselves.

 

[TomVexille]

Should I get out the popcorn again?

No point in putting it away

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Possibly you should wait for the facts before throwing stones at NSW Health.

What I wrote is what has been reported to date.

Something is amiss with whatever the social event (yet to be confirmed which one) that he attended.

 

[Lynda2475]

was it just the weather being particularly bad?

This! Last Saturday was bitterly cold. People were avoiding Westfiled Bondi aka ground zero, but the avoidance of the beach areas was more to do with the cold. Not sure why Penrith referneces, not too many from eastern suburbs or norther beaches would go that far west.

Is not all of those points what contact tracers are meant to check?

I'll ignore the poor grammar. Where is the evidence that tracers didnt ask for a full list of attendees and didnt contact everyone whose details they were given? If people lie or forget that someone was there, that doesnt mean contract tracers are overwhelmed and not coping. In a home setting they dont have any CCTV footage to cross check, they have to rely on the honesty and memories of those who were there.

The reason I mentioned 30 people is because that is conveininetly the max visitors that were allowed under restrictions at the time. So the host may have had motive to not give all guest names for fear of being fined for breaching regulations if more than 30 were in attendance.

Something is amiss with whatever the social event

Or someone is being dishonest re their movements.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'll ignore the poor grammar.

That is ok. I'll ignore your poor spelling

The reason I mentioned 30 people is because that is conveininetly the max visitors that were allowed under restrictions at the time. So the host may have had motive to not give all guest names for fear of being fined for breaching regulations if more than 30 were in attendance.

So contact tracers would not have the responsibility for verifying such an obvious detail? You seem to be providing quite a list of things that were not verified, and which you have doubts about.

That is of course if that party is the actual social event involved.

 

[dajop]

This! Last Saturday was bitterly cold. People were avoiding Westfiled Bondi aka ground zero, but the avoidance of the beach areas was more to do with the cold. Not sure why Penrith referneces, not too many from eastern suburbs or norther beaches would go that far west.

Any good data analysis includes a control! (not to say my back of envelope analysis could in any way be construed as "good").

Penrith is as good a control as any, as it's far far away from the eastern suburbs. Although a 5% increase could be indicative of people staying local rather than heading into CBD, for example.

 

[justinbrett]

What I wrote is what has been reported to date.

And my point is nothing is based on fact, it's all "suggests" and "indicates" and then you make the correlation that NSW contact tracers are not keeping up (in context that you replied to Lynda's post about why NSW is not having a 3 day lockdown).

I'll refer you to the many, many posts you made defending Victorian officials when people made similar allegations a few weeks ago without evidence. I'm sure you know where to find them.

 

[clifford]

And my point is nothing is based on fact, it's all "suggests" and "indicates" and then you make the correlation that NSW contact tracers are not keeping up (in context that you replied to Lynda's post about why NSW is not having a 3 day lockdown).

I'll refer you to the many, many posts you made defending Victorian officials when people made similar allegations a few weeks ago without evidence. I'm sure you know where to find them.

I think that this particular outbreak in Sydney will make or break Gladys/scomo's "light touch" approach.

I really do want to see it succeed, but time will tell (hopefully sooner rather than later).

 

[jakeseven7]

No point in putting it away

Yawn tell me about it, the popcorn has been out so long with this tired old ‘NSW does everything right always’ argument that it’s gone stale... I suspect one user is now using two handles as well

No state or it’s people are perfect, the only thing that is perfect in this nightmare is the virus. It’s a perfect creation when you think about it. Pretty amazing objectively.

 

[Lynda2475]

So contact tracers would not have the responsibility for verifying such an obvious detail? You seem to be providing quite a list of things that were not verified, and which you have doubts about.

I dont have any concerns or doubts about NSW contratc tracing, they are adequately resourced. You are the one doubting they did their job and assuming the man (and his friends) did nothing wrong.

Since you are such at expert how would you verify what has happened inside a private home beyond interviewing those who came forward for testing and the people they said who were also there ? At a public venue they cross check payments, CCTV etc. Inside private home they have to rely on the honesty of the people who live there or admit they were there.

This case is quite funny, because they keep saying he was in a green zone, yet as some of us have been saying for days these declaratons are mostly meaningless as had green zones for LGAs with active cases and Red zones for LGAS with zero cases.

Your favourite argument is that large gatherings in homes are the most risky, but suddently its not the behviour that is the problem but the tracers. Of course if this was in Victoria there would be a littany of excuses, but because it is NSW the tracers have failed.

 

[justinbrett]

Yawn tell me about it, the popcorn has been out so long with this tired old ‘NSW does everything right always’ argument that it’s gone stale... I suspect one user is now using two handles as well

No state or it’s people are perfect, the only thing that is perfect in this nightmare is the virus. It’s a perfect creation when you think about it. Pretty amazing objectively.

Those people are only arguing with the "NSW does everything wrong always" people, who are just as numerous....

I think Mark McGowan might have an alias on here as well

 

[lovetravellingoz]

. You are the one .......... assuming the man (and his friends) did nothing wrong.

I have made no such assumption.

Assuming that the party is the social event, which has not been confirmed as yet, then at least through his daughter, even if he missed the news, one would tend to believe that he should have known to get tested and isolate earlier than he did.

 

[jakeseven7]

Good to see that this Bondi cluster leakage has been jumped on quickly. The co worker is predictably positive. All close contact household members in iso and awaiting test results too.

Let’s just hope that not many customers have picked it up.
——

Two cases identified in dry cleaners in Sandringham, as Bondi cluster grows​

Australia news LIVE: No change to Greater Sydney restrictions as NSW records 11 new local COVID-19 cases; Queensland records three new local cases

Masks are mandatory in all indoor settings across Australia’s largest city, Queensland has slammed its border shut to Greater Sydney and Melburnians are hours away from being able to welcome more than two visitors into their homes.

www.theage.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Your favourite argument is that large gatehring are the most risky, but suddently its not the behviour taht is the problem but the tracers.

I did not make such a point at all.

Though having a party, or other social gathering. is not a fault or problem unless the attendees breached the then rules, and also if they lied about matters afterwards.

Cases often arise from a number a number of contributing factors. They may or may not be wrongdoings.


As to the tracers, all I have indicated is that he has been reported to not have been contracted yet. We know not why yet. It may have been a different event and he may have supplied the wrong number etc.

 

[kamchatsky]

Yawn tell me about it, the popcorn has been out so long with this tired old ‘NSW does everything right always’ argument that it’s gone stale... I suspect one user is now using two handles as well

No state or it’s people are perfect, the only thing that is perfect in this nightmare is the virus. It’s a perfect creation when you think about it. Pretty amazing objectively.

But surely, for AFFers who is very keen to travel, NSW is doing the right way? After all, if you keep locking down for a few cases, what chance would you have for the international borders to open up again in the near future?

Imagine if every state acts like NSW, we all would probably gone overseas by now.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Good to see that this Bondi cluster leakage has been jumped on quickly. The co worker is predictably positive. All close contact household members in iso and awaiting test results too.

Well there is still the matter of the flight etc yet.