Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[SydneySwan]

Well they have a very good one in control now from SA.

I thought the SA people were providing assistance not running the show.

 

[p--and--t]

ScoMo better be careful @Pushka is chasing him for a new tag of "Pushka from SA Marketing"

 

[p--and--t]

In general, viral spreads depend on density or proximity of hosts to take off (hence the lockdown processes). It only stands to reason the large more densely populated cities are more prone to outbreaks.

I'll probably get howled down, but one can postulate about effectiveness of health department staffing and processes and various procedures etc till the cows come home but for me, the denseness of living, "denseness" of some members of the community, and communication difficulties (i.e. like >30% of the population who don't speak English at home) are overriding factors on why the figures are markedly different on the eastern seaboard to other states. And despite all else that is going on and departure restrictions, that doesn't count the 500-1,000 overseas arrivals per day for the last couple months into the two major airports

 

[Gremlin]

Standby for the panic buying starting up again, 1st to go will be TP.

Happening. Woolworths have just announced product limits are being reintroduced in Victoria. Two item limit on lots of staples including TP.

 

[Pushka]

I thought the SA people were providing assistance not running the show.

Sounds like they don’t need more followers but rather leaders. She’s head of our infectious diseases management in SA. Seems to have done the job so far given we had major outbreak in Barossa Valley and Baggage Handlers and Qantas to manage.

 

[dajop]

In general, viral spreads depend on density or proximity of hosts to take off (hence the lockdown processes). It only stands to reason the large more densely populated cities are more prone to outbreaks.

It's interesting though that the areas of Melbourne where the hotspots are - with the exception of Moreland, and then it depends on the part of Moreland, are the less densely populated areas. Also just a completely anecdotal observation, the hotspot areas are more socially conservative (if you take the results of SSM plebisicite as an indicator of social conservativism in Melbourne).

 

[drron]

A lot of minorities are against SSM though.

 

[get me outta here]

Is that some sort of kinky bondage?

A lot of minorities are against SSM though.

 

[dajop]

A lot of minorities are against SSM though.

Not so much minorities, but recent migrants, tend to have a high degree of social conservatism (being against SSM an effect of such conservatism .. or vice versa). And these are the same areas for the hotspots.

I actually wonder - like Singapore's blindspot with migrant workers housed in dormitories, this has been a bit of a blind spot for the Victorian government which has led to significant consequences.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tasmania has offered to help Victoria with its testing analysis.

As of Friday, relaxing venue density to 2 sq m, outside crowds 500, indoor 250, but home visits limited to 20 (how often do you get more than 20 visitors in your home - I guess 'balls' at some of the swankier joints and occasional Christmas lunch?) .

Border announcement on Friday. ABC radio this morning kept repeating that on its poll, "95%" want borders to stay closed, but Premier Gutwein I think (hope) will be announcing something like no Tas-inbound restrictions if you can get direct to SA, QLD, WA; maybe also allowing direct transit of Melbourne airport.

 

[jakeseven7]

Holy smokes. A scathing critique of Victoria's COVID response management by Peter Van Onselen. It will be paywalled, but worth Googling the headline to see if you can bring it up. Worth a read in full: Why Victoria has failed to tame COVID unlike other states

One excerpt, but Onselen ranges more widely than this



and

Wow so glad we have such amazing epidemiology experts coming out of the woodwork everywhere, its incredible...

 

[RooFlyer]

Wow so glad we have such amazing epidemiology experts coming out of the woodwork everywhere, its incredible...

Well, if you read the article, its about administrative management, not epidemiology.

 

[jakeseven7]

Well, if you read the article, its about administrative management, not epidemiology.

It read a little 'vindictive' .... suspect there is an axe buried somewhere, so couldn't really take that seriously

 

[RooFlyer]

Fair 'nuf. He's WA based i think Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University and I've found him a decent straight shooter in the past. He tends to be more critical of the Morrison government than, say, Labour ones.

 

[Steady]

but home visits limited to 20 (how often do you get more than 20 visitors in your home - I guess 'balls' at some of the swankier joints and occasional Christmas lunch?) .

Seems to often coincide with lighting the wood fired oven at my place....

 

[woodborer]

Yes, but in Victoria from what I understand there's an elephant in the room that almost no-one is mentioning, but gossip is circulating. And it's not the protest.

Although the tacit approval of the protest would have given signals re large gatherings.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

"

As to the rumours of ethnic big families it really is very easy to work out just what has been going on and what culture is involved by looking at the make up of the populations in the hot spots.And the Australian's cartoon of this issue was well chosen in that respect.

It is not just one ethnic group. For example on this forum almost two weeks ago I post how in the northern suburbs that the cases were being driven by families and that also the children that were showing up were mainly at independent religious schools. From what I have heard they are from several different ethnic backgrounds. In addition some of the ethnic groups involved would most definitely not be sending their kids to those schools.

The northern suburbs have been a clear hotspot for over a month, and despite this no special measures were take apart from some extra testing stations. And extra testing stations only have limited value when a core problem was/is that the core carriers were not presenting for testing.

In essence the Vic Government has been relying on state wide measures, and in testing to find cases. Neither addressed those that avoided tests, and were made worse by the few that were caught in the northern suburbs who did not isolate properly.

Overall it has worked well for most of the population who followed the rules. Bu has been rorted by those that have chosen to ignore. The relaxation in numbers that could gather in homes, just added fuel to the embers, so that the flames have burst forth.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Victoria still leads in the numbers fined.but also was the messages such as no camping,no fishing etc.Made it more complicated than the other States.
By the way I am not saying this is the reason for the current cases but it is an interesting subject.

The main recent hostpot spread has been after fishing, camping etc have been allowed again.

Family spread has been driving the hotspot, and increased gathering size in the home has helped to fuel it. With family gatherings too behind closed doors no doubt social distancing went out the window. One has to wonder about the mindset of people who knew that they were infected, or at least should be isolating as were close contacts of someone who was infected

Look at Cedar Meats and the McDonalds clusters too.

The original plan had provision to act in specific areas like suburbs. The Vic Government has failed to do it till this week, and even now has failed to bring in suburb specific restrictions.

The second main hotspot was due to poorly trained and supervised hotel security guards. This is failure of the Vic Government in having the right staff. NZ also had problems recently where they had the wrong people supervising hotel quarantine.

 

[serfty]

Standby for the panic buying starting up again, 1st to go will be TP.

Already happening ... even Monday ...

 

[serfty]

Plus evidently some of the current spreaders have been in work with no sickleave. Hence why the $1500 is now to be paid to those that do not have access to sickleave.

But can’t be so attractive that people will proactively try to get it. Some people are truly crazy.

I haven’t had a good look into this, but does this include people who are taking the day off because they’re “not feeling 100%” (per governments instruction)?

Not trying to be difficult, and I appreciate many of these people did the wrong thing (I used my example poorly), but it’s very easy for people who have their lives setup and limited debts to pay to say “why didn’t they just stay home!”.

Basically "contractors" - no work no income.