Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[Flying mermaid]

It's going to be a very 'brave' government that decides to 'let it rip' at this level of vaccination. I suspect there will be a lot of questions at today's press conference about Hazzard's comments yesterday...will be interesting to see if he can keep a lid on his temper, or Gladys will take those ones and walk back yesterday's statement.

If you read the full comment from Hazzard it was much more frustration and a warning than any intention to let it rip. After the statement that if people weren’t going to cooperate they might need to live with the virus in the community, he continued that they were going to try damn hard and use every effort to suppress it.

 

[sjk]

It's going to be a very 'brave' government that decides to 'let it rip' at this level of vaccination. I suspect there will be a lot of questions at today's press conference about Hazzard's comments yesterday...will be interesting to see if he can keep a lid on his temper, or Gladys will take those ones and walk back yesterday's statement.

Not saying anything about "letting it rip". Just that it's at least conceivable that current NSW policy settings won't be enough to "eliminate" it again, and that NSW will resist any necessary tightening of those settings.

Neither Taiwan nor South Korea had any intention of "letting it rip", either. But it's certainly here to stay in Seoul.

 

[justinbrett]

If you read the full comment from Hazzard it was much more frustration and a warning than any intention to let it rip. After the statement that if people weren’t going to cooperate they might need to live with the virus in the community, he continued that they were going to try damn hard and use every effort to suppress it.

The trouble is his comments have gained a lot of support in NSW, especially with the money running out. Melbourne had the benefit of jobseeker, Sydney does not.

 

[antycbr]

I've spoken to a lot of friends in NSW recently and the brutal truth is I think a lot of people support the open up and let it ride approach. If it means closure to the rest of Australia so be it, but that could be offset by being open to UK, Europe & the US.

That works if you have your family and friends all within NSW but is electoral poision to anyone who has family interstate. There's enough angst about overseas family and friends.

It takes regional NSW down this path as well as you can't bubble Sydney from the regions. State borders are also porous for freight and border bubbles so there's the inevitable risk of spread across the borders into other states.

 

[justinbrett]

That works if you have your family and friends all within NSW but is electoral poision to anyone who has family interstate. There's enough angst about overseas family and friends.

It takes regional NSW down this path as well as you can't bubble Sydney from the regions. State borders are also porous for freight and border bubbles so there's the inevitable risk of spread across the borders into other states.

I write this as a Novocastrian with family in Brisbane.

I'm not necessarily supporting the view, but I am of the view this has to happen at some point, and I think the federal government talking about 2024 is just off with the fairies. It should be by Jan 22 at the latest. The state borders would come down pretty quickly once they see life return to normal in NSW like we are seeing in the US now.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The trouble is his comments have gained a lot of support in NSW, especially with the money running out. Melbourne had the benefit of jobseeker, Sydney does not.

I am sure they have. We are all worn out and tired of lockdowns and border closures and all the rest. However with a bit under 32% with a first jab and 10% fully vaccinated I just don’t see it happening. Being self centred I am glad we get our second jab next week and the kids are all fully vaccinated, just in case they do decide to let it rip.

 

[justinbrett]

I am sure they have. We are all worn out and tired of lockdowns and border closures and all the rest. However with a bit under 32% with a first jab and 10% fully vaccinated I just don’t see it happening. Being self centred I am glad we get our second jab next week and the kids are all fully vaccinated, just in case they do decide to let it rip.

The jabs are going out 1 million a week now, that number is increasing rapidly. They could send the lions share to NSW (including AZ for all ages). I don't think they'd "let it rip" next week.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The trouble is his comments have gained a lot of support in NSW, especially with the money running out. Melbourne had the benefit of jobseeker, Sydney does not.

Though there was no Jobseeker in the last Melbourne lockdown with the more contagious Kappa and Delta Strains (compared to the strains in the Vic Second Wave).

And also Greater Melbourne had a much stricter lockdown than being used in Sydney. ie Many more people were stood down, and more businesses restricted in operation, in order to minimise mixing.

 

[bcworld]

I guess it all depends on what the difference is between "living with it" and "letting it rip".

It just seems hard to imagine that one doesn't lead to the other at the moment.

 

[Flying mermaid]

The jabs are going out 1 million a week now, that number is increasing rapidly. They could send the lions share to NSW (including AZ for all ages). I don't think they'd "let it rip" next week.

I don’t see that happening - it would spread to other states, so they need their vaccination rates up too. It will be interesting to see what happens in the UK. If their current strategy doesn’t result in hospitals overflowing and deaths, then maybe 50% fully vaccinated should be the target for starting to open up.

anyway if it does get to Canberra we will be very cautious - my main concern is our 18 month grand daughter. Indonesia is getting lots of cases and even deaths in children.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I guess it all depends on what the difference is between "living with it" and "letting it rip".

It just seems hard to imagine that one doesn't lead to the other at the moment.

Well if NSW did go for the "living with it" approach they could go hammer and tongs vaccinating people with AZ as clearly the risk of a few bloods clots would be vastly lower than what the mounting adverse outcomes of actually catching Covid 19 would be. That will get them up to "herd immunity" levels more quickly.

However I cannot see NSW jumping to "living with covid" just yet. It is too early. They can for example if things do not turn around with the current settings (and they may) go from Lockdown-lite that they have now to a more strict Lockdown such as used in Greater Melbourne.

 

[justinbrett]

Though there was no Jobseeker in the last Melbourne lockdown with the more contagious Kappa and Delta Strains (compared to the strains in the Vic Second Wave).

And also Greater Melbourne had a much stricter lockdown than being used in Sydney. ie Many more people were stood down, and more businesses restricted in operation, in order to minimise mixing.

The recent outbreaks in Melbourne were much smaller than the current Sydney outbreak. As for a stricter lockdown, that could occur because of Jobseeker. You're proving my point.

Well if NSW did go for the "living with it" approach they could go hammer and tongs vaccinating people with AZ as clearly the risk of a few bloods clots would be vastly lower than what the mounting adverse outcomes of actually catching Covid 19 would be. That will get them up to "head immunity" levels more quickly.

However I cannot see NSW jumping to "living with covid" yet. It is too early. They can for example if things do not turn around with the current settings (and they may) go from Lockdown-lite that they have now to a more strict Lockdown such as used in Greater Melbourne.

Not an option due my last comment.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The recent outbreaks in Melbourne were much smaller than the current Sydney outbreak. As for a stricter lockdown, that could occur because of Jobseeker. You're proving my point.

Once again, there was no Jobkeeper available in the last Greater Melbourne Lockdown. So your point is not accurate.

Finacially Federal support is identical as to what Sydney now has, except that NSW Gov knew what that is in advance. When Melbourne last went into lockdown it was not known if any support would be offered by the Federal Government.


The cases were less as Lockdown started earlier. Delayed lockdown of a wide enough region was the lesson harshly earnt in the Second Wave.

 

[justinbrett]

There was no Jobkeeper available in the last Greater Melbourne Lockdown.

It went for two weeks, no comparison

The cases were less as Lockdown started earlier. That was the mistake harshly earnt in the Second Wave.

That's your opinion. Many epidemiologists are now saying an earlier lockdown in Sydney wouldn't have helped, as the seeding events would have occurred. We'd have to have been WA/NT/SA cautious to lockdown at the first case to prevent it.

 

[Lynda2475]

Lockdown-lite

This is hilarious..

Non essential workplaces are closed (all offices are WFH). Schools are closed, when high school students return they have to wear masks. There is no where to go - theatres, cinema, pubs, clubs, Hairdressers, gyms all closed. No weddings. Masks are in play. No travel to regions.

The reasons people can go out - food, medical care/test/vaccinate, essential work and outdoor exercise - are the same as in other states.

Yesterday Dr Chant was clear that the issue is households in South West Sydney breaching gathering rules and that the virus is getting into those homes from workplaces which would not be closed under any level of lockdowns (i.e. food distribution, care etc). She also stated that because of this, starting earlier would not have made a difference.

The issue is cultural in some of those areas. The numbers active in community have come down in the eastern suburbs, most new cases there are households, but south west is spreading between households.

Adding a 5km rule or a curfew wont make any difference. As those workers would be allowed go to work anyway, and curfew just makes for more crowded supermarkets.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It went for two weeks, no comparison

Yes going earlier and stricter works better.

However there are measures still in place. Some of these get eased tonight. Other measures will remain in place.

That's your opinion. Many epidemiologists are now saying an earlier lockdown in Sydney wouldn't have helped, as the seeding events would have occurred. We'd have to have been WA/NT/SA cautious to lockdown at the first case to prevent it.

Though that ignores that Melbourne did enter lockdown after seeding had occurred. Plus obviously in the second wave lockdown the virus had well and truly got out and about before lockdown.

The last outbreak actually started on 11th May when the traveller returned to Vic from SA HQ and tested positive and by then had already infected at least one other unknown person. From him unknown transmission chains started that created several clusters and the first of these did not surface till 25tth May, That Case 1 was not really Case 1 and led to Case 5 being found who was symptomatic and spreading for 12 days before returning a positive test. Case 5 was most likely not the source of all the other chains.

May 27th

Mr Merlino said on Thursday the virus was spreading at an alarming rate, prompting the lockdown.​

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"In the last day, we've seen more evidence that we're dealing with a highly infectious strain of the virus, a variant of concern which is running faster than we have ever recorded," he said.​

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"The time between catching the virus and passing it on is tighter than ever so for some of those cases I've mentioned … the serial interval, that is, how long it takes between the onset of symptoms in the first and secondary case, is averaging just over a day.​

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"So unless something drastic happens, this will becoming increasingly uncontrollable."​

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Today, the Victorian Government has announced a seven-day circuit breaker lockdown in an attempt to stop the spread of a COVID-19 outbreak in the state. The lockdown is effective from 11:59pm on Thursday 27 May 2021 until 11:59pm on Wednesday 2 June 2021 ​

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When first announced LGA's like Mornington Peninsula were complaining of why did they have to go into lockdown too along with the rest of Greater Melbourne.

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[justinbrett]

Yes going earlier and stricter works better.

However there are measures still in place. Some of these get eased tonight. Other measures will remain in place.



Though that ignores that Melbourne did enter lockdown after seeding had occurred. Plus obviously in the second wave lockdown the virus had well and truly got out and about before lockdown.

The last outbreak actually started on 11th May when the traveller returned to Vic from SA HQ and tested positive and by then had already infected at least one other unknown person. From him unknown transmission chains started that created several clusters and the first of these did not surface till 25tth May, That Case 1 was not really Case 1 and led to Case 5 being found who was symptomatic and spreading for 12 days before returning a positive test. Case 5 was most likely not the source of all the other chains.

May 27th

Mr Merlino said on Thursday the virus was spreading at an alarming rate, prompting the lockdown.​

​

"In the last day, we've seen more evidence that we're dealing with a highly infectious strain of the virus, a variant of concern which is running faster than we have ever recorded," he said.​

​

"The time between catching the virus and passing it on is tighter than ever so for some of those cases I've mentioned … the serial interval, that is, how long it takes between the onset of symptoms in the first and secondary case, is averaging just over a day.​

​

"So unless something drastic happens, this will becoming increasingly uncontrollable."​

​

​

​

Today, the Victorian Government has announced a seven-day circuit breaker lockdown in an attempt to stop the spread of a COVID-19 outbreak in the state. The lockdown is effective from 11:59pm on Thursday 27 May 2021 until 11:59pm on Wednesday 2 June 2021 ​

​

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When first announced LGA's like Mornington Peninsula were complaining of why did they have to go into lockdown too along with the rest of Greater Melbourne.

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OK, maybe you should become an epidemiologist - I'm just reporting what they said, I'm not qualified to have this argument.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This is hilarious..

Non essential workplaces are closed (all offices are WFH). Schools are closed, when high school students return they have to wear masks. There is no where to go - theatres, cinema, pubs, clubs, Hairdressers, gyms all closed. No weddings. Masks are in play. No travel to regions.

The reasons people can go out - food, medical care/test/vaccinate, essential work and outdoor exercise - are the same as in other states.

Yesterday Dr Chant was clear that the issue is households in South West Sydney breaching gathering rules and that the virus is getting into those homes from workplaces which would not be closed under any level of lockdowns (i.e. food distribution, care etc). She also stated that because of this, starting earlier would not have made a difference.

The issue is cultural in some of those areas. The numbers active in community have come down in the eastern suburbs, most new cases there are households, but south west is spreading between households.

Not sure what is hilarious.

The Sydney settings are not as strict as the Melbourne settings were. The 5km rule being but one difference. Hence it is a lighter form of lockdown.

ie Other retail will close except for contactless click and collect services, whereas in Sydney people could/can still say walk in and by a dress.

Adding a 5km rule or a curfew wont make any difference. As those workers would be allowed go to work anyway, and curfew just makes for more crowded supermarkets.

Household visits are flagged as key problem. 5km rule would assist in controlling that.

 

[bcworld]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412939556286963713

38 New

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412939571029897217

 

[lovetravellingoz]

OK, maybe you should become an epidemiologist - I'm just reporting what they said, I'm not qualified to have this argument.

If there is one thing I have leant in this pandemic is that epidemiologists ' will have a vast number of varying opinions. (not surprising as there are so many variables). Other epidemiologists have said the lockdown should have occurred earlier. Certainly many were very critical of only locking down some LGA's rather than all of Sydney. Especially when they could move outside of those LGA's.