Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I'll wade in.

There are epidemiologists on both sides of the issue of whether an earlier lockdown in Sydney would have worked or not.

None are qualified to comment as every single epidemiologist has been wrong at some point in time during this pandemic.

 

[Lynda2475]

Some other key data points form today's presser fromt he ABC blog:

Of today's 38 new locally acquired cases:

• Seventeen were in isolation throughout their entire infectious periods
• Nine cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period
• Eleven cases were infectious in the community
• One remains under investigation

Of these 38 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 21 are from south-western Sydney.

Another aged care worker tests positive

One new case is an aged care worker from SummitCare Baulkham Hills aged care facility — that's the aged care home we've been hearing about for the past week or so.

This means there's now 11 cases linked to the home — six residents and five workers.

In a media release, NSW Health said this new case, the aged care worker, had received their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

"When this worker was identified as a close contact, they went into isolation immediately, and this has resulted in no further exposures for residents at the facility," the statement said.

There's now 21 cases linked to that Meriton Suites party

NSW Health says five new cases have been linked to a gathering at the Meriton Suites Waterloo on Saturday, June 26 — which was the first day of the lockdown.

"These cases were contacts of people who attended the gathering and bring the total number of cases linked to this venue to 21," the statement said.

 

[Flying mermaid]

I always try and get "news" and sometimes even news from diverse sources. Last night happened to watch a certain Sydney based octogenarian broadcaster ranting and frothing at the mouth on GroundNews. Not happy with Gladys any more, she's apparently now evil like Dan.

But anyway, some graphics were put up .... and statement made about looking at a "real statistic", comparing COVID to the flue ... that in 2019 we had nearly 300,000 cases of flu and 705 deaths in 9 months, but in 18 months of coronavirus we've had "just over 30,000 cases, not 300,000 and only 910 deaths". then asking where were the lockdowns, border closures, mandatory masks for the flu outbreak in 2019? We shouldn't be having them now, because we didn't have them for the flu. Hello? Cause and effect?

Hopefully with vaccines we won't need any of these additional measures. But my brain melts down when trying to think through the logic of his commentary, essentially saying because measures were put in place, COVID was not worse than the flu, and because it was no worse than the flu, we shouldn't need all these additional measures. Huh?

I don’t get you? You are expecting truth from someone who is trying to manipulate his viewers? He knows (and I have no idea who he is), it’s a lot of junk but unfortunately his viewers will swallow it whole and repeat it to their friends and family

 

[Lynda2475]

and I have no idea who he is

Assuming Alan Jones

 

[Lynda2475]

So ABC is reporting :

"It's been a position of National Cabinet for aggressive community suppression and that's clearly what NSW is attempting to do.

"Should any jurisdiction change their policy position I would assume they would take that back to National Cabinet for consideration.

"That was the forum that put in place the active suppression policy and I would expect all of us who've signed up to that to go back to National Cabinet if we wanted that to change."

But suppression is keeping Covid at manageable levels to not overwhelm health services (the old flattening the curve), it is not zero covid. So i find it funny they are noting a strategy that they are not following, its clear they are going for elimination. Covid-zero was never been agreed at National Cabinet, it was just something some states decided was their goal.

 

[Lynda2475]

The late news last night was highlighting a number of covid protocol breaches in Geraldton (WA) wrt handing of positive case form a ship (the one that McGowan is asking to leave Australian waters), he's called a presser wonder if that means some linked cases?

 

[Flying mermaid]

Assuming Alan Jones

I have vaguely heard of him

 

[bcworld]

But suppression is keeping Covid at manageable levels to not overwhelm health services (the old flattening the curve), it is not zero covid. So i find it funny they are noting a strategy that they are not following, its clear they are going for elimination. Covid-zero was never been agreed at National Cabinet, it was just something some states decided was their goal.

It's been the case since the very beginning that Australia, federally and every state has pursued elimination. Some governments have attempted to reframe it as suppression, or I think Vic came up with "aggressive suppression". It's never been true...none of the policy settings have ever suggested anything but elimination.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'll wade in.

There are epidemiologists on both sides of the issue of whether an earlier lockdown in Sydney would have worked or not.

None are qualified to comment as every single epidemiologist has been wrong at some point in time during this pandemic.

Though my comment is not just about now and Sydney. And yes I have too also been wrong at times during the pandemic


With lockdowns, back when the Second Wave in Victoria was just gaining momentum and the Vic Gov were talking about lockdown measures I posted on this that while the measures seemed reasonable that I feared that they were going too slow in their implementation and not extensive enough based upon the growth in the new cases that were occurring. What happened after that just strengthened my view.

So my opinion on it has not really changed since that time. Vic were too slow back then, and NSW starting with a small number of LGA's when spread was already known to be beyond them was also too late. The new variants have however increased the need to act more swiftly and decisively.

I have also previously posted that I do not believe that you need to enter lockdown with a small number of cases. Though the new variants will have changed this somewhat, and especially if the cases are found some time after when seeding first occurred and when unknown transmission chains may have formed.

 

[N860CR]

I would actually say that NSW has finally achieved the National goal. Small case numbers, all connected, hospitals not overrun and virtually nobody sick (and certainly not dying).

Adjust the “lockdown” to open bars and restaurants with appropriate contact tracing (via our National “death by QR code system) and you’ve got a fully functioning society living with the mild virus.

That was the plan from the beginning. And we’re still not there. Vaccination was part of the plan, but not the only solution.

 

[dajop]

But suppression is keeping Covid at manageable levels to not overwhelm health services (the old flattening the curve), it is not zero covid. So i find it funny they are noting a strategy that they are not following, its clear they are going for elimination. Covid-zero was never been agreed at National Cabinet, it was just something some states decided was their goal.

Suppression is what the government has been doing here in Singapore for a while, and they can do that. Not zero covid, but not crazy covid either. Suppression is not compatible in any way with "normal" though, it's a fools choice in western democracy, the population won't accept the restrictions that come with suppression. It's got to be either elimination or let it rip, I honestly don't think there's an in between that people would accept.

Can you imagine Australia living with the following?
- Compulsory masks indoors and outdoors unless eating/drinking or engaging in intensive exercise. For over twelve months. This is a baseline, not something that comes and goes depending on case numbers.
- Compulsory QR code, ID or token check-ins ...... everywhere. Linked to National identity number. Businesses not doing it get fined and shut down for several weeks.
- Permanent density restrictions on hospitality. Businesses not complying get fined and shut down for several weeks.
- Testing associated with major events, but still retaining severe caps on major events
- No serving of alcohol after 10:30pm in bars or restaurants. Businesses not complying get fined and shut down for several weeks.
- Group size limits for gatherings/dining etc that oscillate between 2, 5 and 8 (and sometimes zero too).
- Caps on numbers working from office that have varied from 0 to 25% to 50% to 75% depending on where things are at.

Even with all of this we recently had "heightened restrictions" period, akin to the lockdown in Sydney, but it didn't feel so bad as the drama queens in the media didn't quite make such a big deal about it. They don't need to complain about oppressive governments here, as everyone knows that the government already is when it wants to be.

On the flipside ... citizens can come and go (with 2 weeks HQ) , and no caps put in place on quarantine places.

 

[justinbrett]

It's been the case since the very beginning that Australia, federally and every state has pursued elimination. Some governments have attempted to reframe it as suppression, or I think Vic came up with "aggressive suppression". It's never been true...none of the policy settings have ever suggested anything but elimination.

That's simply not correct for NSW.

Last year, NSW was averaging around 10 cases per day for many months. Nobody ever thought NSW would get to zero, it never locked down, daily cases remained steady but never increased significantly due to contact tracing. This is the origin of the "gold standard" descriptor which, scoff if you will, at the time showed that you didn't need to have city lockdowns for single cases. You've got to remember back then states like QLD would declare hotspots for single cases, and they could only review border closures once a month for some reason.

In many ways the other states are now closer to what NSW was doing back then (look at Queensland now). I think NSW has got more conservative. I think they've now been pressured into elimination.

I think the difference is NSW was happy for the number not to be zero, but for the other states that is still their goal, they're just prepared to wait a bit longer for it to get there.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Suppression is what the government has been doing here in Singapore for a while, and they can do that. Not zero covid, but not crazy covid either. Suppression is not compatible in any way with "normal" though, it's a fools choice in western democracy, the population won't accept the restrictions that come with suppression. It's got to be either elimination or let it rip, I honestly don't think there's an in between that people would accept.

Can you imagine Australia living with the following?
- Compulsory masks indoors and outdoors unless eating/drinking or engaging in intensive exercise. For over twelve months. This is a baseline, not something that comes and goes depending on case numbers.
- Compulsory QR code, ID or token check-ins ...... everywhere. Linked to National identity number. Businesses not doing it get fined and shut down for several weeks.
- Permanent density restrictions on hospitality. Businesses not complying get fined and shut down for several weeks.
- Testing associated with major events, but still retaining severe caps on major events
- No serving of alcohol after 10:30pm in bars or restaurants. Businesses not complying get fined and shut down for several weeks.
- Group size limits for gatherings/dining etc that oscillate between 2, 5 and 8 (and sometimes zero too).
- Caps on numbers working from office that have varied from 0 to 25% to 50% to 75% depending on where things are at.

Even with all of this we recently had "heightened restrictions" period, akin to the lockdown in Sydney, but it didn't feel so bad as the drama queens in the media didn't quite make such a big deal about it. They don't need to complain about oppressive governments here, as everyone knows that the government already is when it wants to be.

On the flipside ... citizens can come and go (with 2 weeks HQ) , and no caps put in place on quarantine places.

Maybe the NSW Premier/Government/Health should be looking at something this as the plan B to National Cabinet - I think NSW is already has been doing the first 3.

A hybrid of let it go/suppress management (ie not elimination) in NSW, and let the other States do what they want - Sorry ACT you are surrounded, no trips over the land border (only flights allowed) - so most likely permanent border restrictions.

Australian Governments (ie National Cabinet) won't accept it, but maybe NSW should end the lock down after say 2 more weeks without financial support (ie another week on top of what already is announced) and then say that's it. As a by-product start accept vaccinated arrivals through 2 weeks hotel quarantine (no caps), and let the rest of the States continue with their border restrictions.

 

[sjk]

That's simply not correct for NSW.

Last year, NSW was averaging around 10 cases per day for many months.

That's simply not correct. There were no several-week periods where the average was around ten after the initial burst, let alone several-month periods.

 

[justinbrett]

So ABC is reporting :

"It's been a position of National Cabinet for aggressive community suppression and that's clearly what NSW is attempting to do.

They're leaving out the key point that "National Cabinet" is really a council not a cabinet, it is not legally binding, the power lays in the respective offices of the individuals, and that "National Cabinet" has already agreed that decisions do not have to have unanimous support. If you recall, WA did not adopt a lot of the decisions last year.

NSW could right now go it alone for anything within the power of the states (ie, Health)

Australian Governments (ie National Cabinet) won't accept it, but maybe NSW should end the lock down ..

As above, NSW doesn't need permission of the other states or the federal government

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

That's simply not correct for NSW.

Last year, NSW was averaging around 10 cases per day for many months. Nobody ever thought NSW would get to zero, it never locked down, daily cases remained steady but never increased significantly due to contact tracing. This is the origin of the "gold standard" descriptor which, scoff if you will, at the time showed that you didn't need to have city lockdowns for single cases. You've got to remember back then states like QLD would declare hotspots for single cases, and they could only review border closures once a month for some reason.

In many ways the other states are now closer to what NSW was doing back then (look at Queensland now). I think NSW has got more conservative. I think they've now been pressured into elimination.

I think the difference is NSW was happy for the number not to be zero, but for the other states that is still their goal, they're just prepared to wait a bit longer for it to get there.

Unfortunately for NSW, I think Delta is faster than gold standard contact tracing.

Hopefully, Delta is not faster than gold standard contact tracing plus 3-4 weeks of lockdown, but I think its quite unlikely.

There might be a need for NSW to make a significant change of direction at a policy level - something requiring going to National Cabinet. With 4 weeks probably being the most the economy could take without additional financial assistance, the States and Territories might get on board with asking the Feds to pay for the NSW lockdown going further/longer. A more creative option would be making NSW a covid-suppression State (always having cases its trying to manage) and letting the other States manage their State borders to NSW. Then NSW could run the risk of say taking vaccinated (Edit: "stranded") Aussies/PRs/families under a hotel quarantine system - potentially no caps. (Edit: sorry no international departures yet)

 

[justinbrett]

That's simply not correct. There were no several-week periods where the average was around ten after the initial burst, let alone several-month periods.

I might be ballparking here, probably closer to 6, but the point was it wasn't zero and it was steady.

Edit: for this chart range, the average is 8, I calculated it.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

They're leaving out the key point that "National Cabinet" is really a council not a cabinet, it is not legally binding, the power lays in the respective offices of the individuals, and that "National Cabinet" has already agreed that decisions do not have to have unanimous support. If you recall, WA did not adopt a lot of the decisions last year.

NSW could right now go it alone for anything within the power of the states (ie, Health)


As above, NSW doesn't need permission of the other states or the federal government

accept - to think something is satisfactory.

Nothing about power to stop any Federal/State/Territory Government gong it alone.

 

[drron]

Weren't most of those NSW cases July - Sept. 2020 OS cases?
The fact that NSW was carrying most of Australia's load in getting Aussies back home there is nothing to be frightened or ashamed of in those figures.How long was Victoria not accepting anyone from OS?

 

[justinbrett]

accept - to think something is satisfactory.

Nothing about power to stop any Federal/State/Territory Government gong it alone.

Thanks for clarifying, but accept has two definitions that both fit in this context:

1. consent to receive or undertake (something offered)
2. believe or come to recognize (a proposition) as valid or correct.

You obviously meant the latter, I inferred the former.